Examining Warriors' Salary Cap, Decisions for 2024 NBA Free Agency After Kings Loss
Thanks to a midseason turnaround, the Golden State Warriors won 46 games to snag the 10th seed and final Western Conference spot in the NBA play-in tournament.
However, the Dubs quickly exited the hunt for the postseason.
Golden State lost to the Sacramento Kings, sending the franchise into a fascinating offseason. In all likelihood, big changes are coming to the roster—with major questions about Chris Paul and Klay Thompson.
The challenge is real. No matter which decisions the Warriors' front office make, though, it certainly helps to have Stephen Curry ready to lead them on the other side.
Salary Cap
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After paying an NBA-high $209.4 million in 2023-24, the Warriors have $175.4 million on the books for next season.
Golden State's financial situation is easily its biggest obstacle.
The good news—relatively speaking, at least—is Chris Paul's $30.8 million salary is fully nonguaranteed. Trading or releasing CP3 will allow the Warriors some breathing room to reshape the roster.
However, the Dubs very likely can be over the projected $172 million luxury tax and $179 million first apron. That outcome may hinge on whether Golden State brings back Klay Thompson or decides the Splash Brothers era is over—but more on that shortly.
If Golden State ducks below the tax, it could use the non-taxpayer mid-level exception (NTMLE) of $12.9 million. If they are between the first apron and $189.5 million second apron, the Warriors would have the $5.2 million taxpayer mid-level exception (TMLE).
Top Contract Decisions
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All right, enough tip-toeing.
Chris Paul has a nonguaranteed deal for 2024-25, and Klay Thompson is headed into unrestricted free agency. He previously rejected a two-year contract offer in the range of $48 million.
If the Warriors keep CP3 and re-sign Klay, they'll presumably be a second-apron team limited to minimum contracts for free agents. If they release/trade CP3 and retain Thompson, there is more flexibility. If they move on from both—an uncomfortable but logical choice—Golden State would be embracing a different Curry-led era.
From there, it's a matter of matching salaries in trades.
Other than Curry and arguably Draymond Green and Jonathan Kuminga, anyone on the roster could be moved. That includes Andrew Wiggins and his contract with nearly $85 million remaining over three years.
Gary Payton II has a $9.1 million player option that is likely to be exercised, given he's played only 66 games in the last two years.
Early in the season, Dario Saric looked like a free-agent steal. However, his minutes basically evaporated down the stretch, so he'll probably find a new team in 2024-25.
Free Agents to Pursue
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If either Paul George or LeBron James decline their player option, the Warriors will quickly pivot to chasing a superstar. While that possibility exists, it's best to not count on that.
Short of a massive splash, Golden State's top priority should be landing a floor-spacing center.
Among the most sensible options is Kelly Olynyk, who the Warriors pursued at the 2024 trade deadline anyway. He ended up getting dealt to the Toronto Raptors but will be a free agent. Olynyk is a career 36.9 percent three-point shooter.
Otherwise, the needs will depend on the futures of Paul and Thompson.
If CP3 is gone, Golden State could lean on internal options in the backcourt yet should consider a reunion with Alec Burks. If Thompson leaves, Cedi Osman would be a decently low-cost wing who moves and shoots well on the perimeter.
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