Projecting Landing Spots for Warriors' Top Free Agents

The Golden State Warriors are fully focused on completing their 2023-24 NBA schedule and hopefully pushing their way into the playoffs.

We're thinking a little farther ahead than that.

With several significant rotation players either ticketed for free agency or capable of reaching the open market, we're examining their offseason outlook and predicting where those players could sign.

Chris Paul (Non-Guaranteed)

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LOS ANGELES, CA - APRIL 9: Chris Paul #3 of the Golden State Warriors dribbles the ball during the game against the Los Angeles Lakers on April 9, 2024 at Crypto.Com Arena in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2024 NBAE (Photo by Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE via Getty Images)

Chris Paul technically holds a $30 million salary for next season, per Spotrac, but not a cent of it is guaranteed and won't be until late June.

No matter how much the Warriors have appreciated the presence of the point god, it's virtually impossible to envision them bringing him back at that price. The only way that could maybe work is if they want to retain his salary slot for money-matching purposes in a major deal, but who's giving up anything of substance to pay Paul that kind of coin for his age-39 season?

Paul should be prepared for a sizable pay cut, and depending on how deep it goes, he could wind up running it back with the Dubs. They haven't closed the door on keeping him at the proverbial "right price," and while his scoring and defense aren't what they used to be, he's still a wizard when it comes to running an offense (6.9 assists against 1.3 turnovers).

All of that said, it's tough to envision Golden State offering him the best combination of pay rate and play rate. The Warriors have a wealth of other guards to work into their rotation, and they might want to free up more backcourt minutes for the likes of Brandin Podziemski and Moses Moody. Paul can likely sniff out a bigger role elsewhere and be better compensated for it.

Prediction: Warriors waive Paul, who signs with the San Antonio Spurs.

Gary Payton II (Player Option)

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LOS ANGELES, CA - APRIL 9: Gary Payton II #0 of the Golden State Warriors blocks the basket during the game against the Los Angeles Lakers on April 9, 2024 at Crypto.Com Arena in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2024 NBAE (Photo by Adam Pantozzi/NBAE via Getty Images)

Gary Payton II belongs in every discussion regarding the league's top defenders.

He is long (6'2" with a sweeping 6'8" wingspan), strong, quick and fearless. There aren't many matchups that give him problems, and his fuel tank runs deep enough for him to harass opponents' top scoring threats the full length of the floor.

If his free-agency outlook hinged solely on defense, he might have no hesitation in declining his $9.1 million player option. There's obviously more that goes into the equation, though, and none of it works in his favor.

His biggest issue is availability, as this is his second consecutive campaign severely impacted by injuries. He's also a limited offensive player who does most of his scoring from close range and doesn't move the needle as a playmaker. Those are two sizable strikes against him and probably the best reasons for believing he'll carry this same contract into the next campaign.

Prediction: Payton picks up player option and stays in Golden State.

Klay Thompson (Unrestricted)

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SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - APRIL 07: Klay Thompson #11 of the Golden State Warriors reacts after making a three-point shot against the Utah Jazz during first half of an NBA basketball game at Chase Center on April 07, 2024 in San Francisco, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

Fading stars are often the hardest to price, and Klay Thompson is certainly no exception. The 34-year-old isn't close to the caliber of defender he was earlier in his career—having consecutive campaigns erased by major injuries can do that—while his scoring and shooting are as erratic as they've been in a decade-plus.

All of this should factor into his next contract, though it was this very time last year when ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski brought word of an "expectation" on Thompson's part that he'd be rewarded with a maximum contract extension. It sounds like Thompson has had a reality check since then, but there's absolutely a possibility he'll value himself more than the Warriors will.

Should that happen, he'll have some suitors. This might be a down season by his standards, but he's still pumping in 17.7 points and 3.5 threes per night while posting a 43.3/38.6/92.2 shooting slash. Think the Orlando Magic might want him to address their scoring and shooting woes? Or that the Philadelphia 76ers could see him creating optimal spacing around Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey? Both feel like no-brainers.

Still, there should be a number that makes sense for both Thompson and Golden State. It's not just that they've shared so much success together, it's that there's still a chance—even if it's not as great as it once was—to create more of that success going forward.

Prediction: Thompson re-signs with the Warriors.