BCS Championship 2012: Nick Saban Won't Allow Kicking to Doom Alabama Again

No game is decided by one thing or one play. However, some things are hard to ignore. Alabama lost 9-6 in overtime to LSU on Nov. 5. They lost because, despite having twice as many field goal attempts as LSU (six to three), they made one fewer field goal (three to two). 

Alabama will not be missing four field goals again in this game. Nick Saban is too good of a coach to allow that to happen. I am looking at one attempt early in the game and maybe two if the first is a long one. If those kicks are converted, we'll see more attempts. If not, don't expect to see the kicker for the rest of the game. 

There are other options. 

This game will largely be decided by field goals anyway. So, for any kick longer than about 40 yards, look for a punt. LSU is not going to drive the ball the length of the field against Alabama often, if at all. No team drives the ball against Alabama. 

However, no team drives it against LSU, either. When a long field goal is missed, the field position battle is instantly reversed. So, even if LSU doesn't gain a yard from the good field position, they can trust Brad Wing to bury Alabama deep in its own territory. 

That puts Alabama in a spot where they need to at least pick up a few first downs to flip field position. Against LSU's defense, that's a losing scenario. Saban knows that. Anyone who's watched LSU at all this year knows that. 

When it comes down to a shorter field goal, look for the Crimson Tide to go for it. Why not? They have the best offensive player in the game in Trent Richardson. The worst that happens there is a turnover on downs, which doesn't hurt any more than a missed field goal does when it comes to field position.

Saban is too good of a coach to allow the same thing to happen. If Alabama loses this game, it's not going to be because of missed field goals.

If they're not kicking well again, Alabama will be extra aggressive in some spots, and extra conservative in others. That's going to result in a different game.

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