NFL Playoff Picture: Patriots Will Cruise to AFC Championship

The key to the AFC Championship is in the hands of Tom Brady and the New England Patriots.

That was the case last year, but this year is different because there isn't a team out there to take the key out of New England's hands. 

It's true that the Patriots are far from a perfect team.  But here's the hole in that logic: Whatever flaws the Patriots have don't override the flaws of the other AFC teams. 

Houston Texans

The 2011 Houston Texans' season will be more remembered for what could have been than what actually was.  Injuries have turned the NFL's most complete team into a playoff afterthought. 

The Texans will have plenty of reasons for a short run, but those aren't going to make a difference.  They will do well to get out of the first round. 

If they get to the divisional round, Houston's season will end there.

Denver Broncos

No way.  I have seen teams struggle before, but I have never seen a team's confidence take such a dramatic shift. 

Before the loss to the Patriots, the Broncos were a team that seemed to believe that it would win every game, no matter how long the odds were. 

Convincing losses to the Patriots and Bills didn't give Denver a chance to win at the end. 

But when they were down 7-3 to the Chiefs and had the ball, I never once got the impression that anyone in Denver's huddle believed that they would win. 

And they didn't win.  The Broncos stay in the playoffs will be a short one.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers are not too different from the Texans.  They have a good, complete roster, but injuries are going to keep them from making the deep playoff run that they've grown accustomed to in Pittsburgh. 

Ben Roethlisberger is clearly not himself, and Rashard Mendenhall is out.  They'll get through the Broncos, but won't do anything against a team capable of scoring points.

With a good defensive foundation and key players on offense, 2012 is shaping up to be a good season for the Steelers. 

But their playoff run will not be a long one. 

Cincinnati Bengals

This one is really simple.  Take a look at the Bengals' record against teams that are in this year's playoffs: 0-7.  Their record against the rest of the NFL is 9-0. 

So, as long as the Bengals manage to meet a team in the playoffs that didn't actually qualify for the tournament, they're good.

Figure out how that can happen and get back to me.  Until then, we're going to have to wait at least a year before the young Bengals make a run in the postseason.

I think they will get through Houston, but their run will end in the second round.

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens have not been consistent enough.  And one thing they really lack is the ability to play on the road. 

They're dismal on the road, and that's where they would have to play the Patriots.  It's not going to happen. 

The Ravens don't do enough on the offensive side of the ball to beat a team like New England in New England. 

If they had earned the top seed, it would be different, but they're just not going to have the punch to keep that game close. 

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