NFL Week 16 Picks: Breaking Down Best Value Props and Stars' Outlooks

While the Week 16 NFL slate may have games a little more spread out than we're used to, we'll finally get the bulk of the action Sunday.

Which, for some of us, means white-knuckling through your fantasy playoff semifinals. For those on the outside looking in, we'll at least have a full slate of prop bets to get us through the action.

Here is a look at some of our favorites for the week, keeping in mind yours truly never recommends Anytime TD props due to their week-to-week inconsistency.

(Note: All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.)

Jordan Love over 222.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Stacy Revere/Getty Images

GREEN BAY, WISCONSIN - DECEMBER 17: Jordan Love #10 of the Green Bay Packers looks to pass during a game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Lambeau Field on December 17, 2023 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The Buccaneers defeated the Packers 34-20. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

Love has hit over this number in seven of his last eight games, and the outlier was a 218-yard outing. He's facing the Carolina Panthers. The worst team in football. While Carolina's pass defense has been one of the few bright spots this season, that's largely a byproduct of opposing teams running the ball successfully in blowouts.

If this line had the Packers heavily favored, we might be able to figure out the logic behind Love's line. It's not. Green Bay is only listed at -4 as we approach kickoff, which is also one of the biggest locks of the week if we're being honest.

Love should blow past this number and wind up somewhere in the 250-275-yard window in a strong Packers win as they snap their two-game losing streak.

Jahmyr Gibbs Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Rey Del Rio/Getty Images

DETROIT, MICHIGAN - DECEMBER 16: Jahmyr Gibbs #26 of the Detroit Lions runs the ball against Jonathon Cooper #0 of the Denver Broncos during the third quarter at Ford Field on December 16, 2023 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Rey Del Rio/Getty Images)

We're banking on positive mean regression here.

Gibbs is at four straight games under this number following a stretch where the over would have hit in four straight. His targets and snaps are down since David Montgomery's return from injury, but I would expect more short passes and screens Sunday as the Lions face off against a strong Minnesota pass rush.

Gibbs is too talented and too quick in open space to be underutilized the way he's been the last few weeks in the pass game. It wouldn't be surprising if he blew past this number on a single screen pass in the first quarter.

(If He Plays) Tyreek Hill over 89.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

MIAMI GARDENS, FL - DECEMBER 17: Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10) laughs with teammates before the game between the New York Jets and the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, December 17, 2023 at Hard Rock Stadium, Hard Rock Stadium, Fla. (Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Tyreek Hill was well on his way to blasting the single-season receiving record before a high ankle sprain held him out of last week's win over the New York Jets.

Look for the Dolphins to feed him in a major way Sunday against the Cowboys, assuming he's able to suit up. Hill needs to average 141 yards over the final three games of the season to surpass Calvin Johnson's single-season record of 1,964 yards, and he's hit that number five times already in 2023.

Setting the line at 89.5, which has hit the over eight times this season, is way too low of a bar—even if Hill is playing at less than 100 percent. Mike McDaniel is going to scheme the ball into his best playmaker's hands, and the best way to keep a balky ankle fresh is to keep him active and running down the field.

This line could be 109.5 and the over would still be playable.

Travis Kelce Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

FOXBOROUGH, MA - DECEMBER 17: Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) rises for a catch during a game between the New England Patriots and the Kansas City Chiefs on December 17, 2023, at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

It's been a relatively disappointing season for Kelce, even if he remains far and away the sport's premier pass-catching tight end.

This line is just too low for Patrick Mahomes' top target. Kelce has hit over 66.5 in three of his last four games, including a six-catch, 91-yard effort against the same Las Vegas Raiders secondary he'll face Monday.

While we don't usually advise anytime touchdown bets because they're flukier, Kelce's gone four straight games without finding the end zone. A Kelce Anytime TD, over receiving yards and Chiefs moneyline three-leg parlay pays out at +228.

Saquon Barkley Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Michael Owens/Getty Images

EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY - DECEMBER 11: Saquon Barkley #26 of the New York Giants runs with the ball during an NFL football game between the New York Giants and the Green Bay Packers at MetLife Stadium on December 11, 2023 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)

Barkley is likely playing his final three games in a Giants uniform, so coach Brian Daboll has no excuse to not use him until the wheels fall off.

It's been a disappointing 2023 campaign for the Penn State product, in large part due to the struggles of the passing game, but the Eagles defense has been sputtering in recent weeks and could give Barkley a chance to shine.

At the very least, this line is just too low for a player of Barkley's talent and usage. Even if he doesn't hit the over, it's a good process bet.

Derrick Henry Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (+100)

Matthew Maxey/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

NASHVILLE, TN - DECEMBER 17: Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry (22) runs the ball during a game between the Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans, December 17, 2023 at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Matthew Maxey/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Henry sounded like a player defeated a week ago after turning in the worst performance of his NFL career. He accumulated just 10 total yards on 20 touches, and the offense looked significantly better with Tyjae Spears manning the backfield.

This week will go one of two ways: Either Henry will have a bounce-back performance for the ages and remind us why he's one of the best backs of this generation, or he'll continue to struggle and Spears will wind up taking his job.

The Titans have nothing to play for over the final three weeks. Henry's likely gone in free agency, and Spears looks like a promising potential heir. It would not be a surprise if the Titans wind up allowing the rookie to shoulder the load at some point late in the season.

We're just banking on a motivated Henry coming out and running with reckless abandon after an embarrassing showing a week ago.

Jonathan Taylor Over 73.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Michael Hickey/Getty Images

INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA - NOVEMBER 26: Jonathan Taylor #28 of the Indianapolis Colts runs the ball during the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Lucas Oil Stadium on November 26, 2023 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)

With Zack Moss out of the lineup, Jonathan Taylor should wind up receiving 80-plus percent of the snaps and should have the fresh legs to put on a dominant performance against the Atlanta Falcons.

Taylor appeared to be finding his legs before suffering a fractured thumb last month, racking up 91 yards and two touchdowns in a win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers before having to sit out three weeks.

This is probably the freshest Taylor has been this late in the season since high school. He's going against a Falcons team that has looked increasingly unmotivated in recent weeks, leading to Arthur Smith's seat warming up.

If you managed to make it to your fantasy league semifinals with Taylor on the roster, this might be the time he finally comes through.