NFL Picks Week 15 Best Early Player Props to Bet Before Odds Shift
We're entering the final month of the 2023 NFL season, and the playoff race could hardly be any hotter.
Entering Thursday night's game between the Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers. 30 teams are still mathematically alive for the postseason. In the AFC alone, a half-dozen teams are in the wild-card mix with identical 7-6 records.
It's going to be a fun week with plenty of reasons to watch the full 16-game slate. We're likely to see a fair amount of standout individual performances on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday too.
Below, we'll dive into some of the best matchups and our favorite props to consider for Week 15 based on the mid-week odds.
Find all the props for this week's games at DraftKings.
Austin Ekeler over 30.5 Receiving Yards
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The Chargers won't have star quarterback Justin Herbert on Thursday, as he recently underwent season-ending finger surgery. This means that Easton Stick will make his first career start against an underrated Raiders defense.
While Los Angeles should look to support Stick with a strong ground game, that might not mean an elite rushing day for Austin Ekeler. Head coach Brandon Staley has mixed up the backfield rotation, and Ekeler only had 10 carries in Week 14, while Joshua Kelley and Isaiah Spiller combined for nine.
However, Ekeler remains a big part of the Chargers' passing attack, and he could have an even larger role if Staley looks to ease in Stick with easy completions. Ekeler caught five passes for 49 yards last Sunday, and he should have even more opportunities against Las Vegas.
Ekeler is -115 (bet $115 to win $100) to reach 31 receiving yards against the Raiders, and he's very likely to reach that mark. He's hit it in six of 10 games this season.
Nick Mullens Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
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While the Chargers are forced to roll with a new quarterback, the Minnesota Vikings have made a conscious decision to do it. After two poor performances by Joshua Dobbs, Minnesota will make the switch to Nick Mullens for Week 15.
"I do believe Nick Mullens gives us the best chance to win the football game this Saturday, and that's the decision we've made," Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell said, per ProFootballTalk's Myles Simmons.
While Mullens, who has 17 starts on his resume, may give Minnesota a fair chance to beat the Cincinnati Bengals, it's hard to love his chances of throwing two or more touchdown passes. While the Bengals defense is far from elite, it's done a good job of limiting opposing passers in the red zone.
Cincinnati ranks 15th in opposing red-zone touchdown percentage, according to Pro Football Reference, and 12th in passing touchdowns allowed. Mullens' last multi-touchdown game came in 2020 with the San Francisco 49ers.
Mullens is -180 (bet $180 to win $100) to hit the under here.
Jahmyr Gibbs over 50.5 Rushing Yards
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The Detroit Lions still have a fairly comfortable lead in the NFC North, but they should be feeling a little desperate entering this week's game against the Denver Broncos.
The Lions have lost two of their last three, and they're set to host a red-hot Broncos team.
Attacking Denver on the ground and limiting the role of quarterback Jared Goff—who has recently struggled with turnovers—should be high on Detroit's priority list. The Broncos defense is fast and aggressive, but it has remained inconsistent against the run.
Denver has allowed 5.1 yards per carry on the season.
The Lions, meanwhile, have begun leaning on rookie Jahmyr Gibbs more in the ground game. He's recorded 54 or more rushing yards in six of his last seven games. He's -120 to hit the over against the Broncos this week, and he should.
If Detroit fails to get its ground game going early, it could be headed to its third loss in a month.
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Travis Kelce Over 5.5 Receptions
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We know that New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick loves to focus on stopping the opposition's biggest playmaker. Presumably, he'll have a plan for limiting Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce this week.
However, we still like the over for this receptions prop at -140.
Stopping Kelce is much easier in theory than in practice, and the Chiefs have to view this as a must-win following two consecutive losses. Expect Patrick Mahomes to target Kelce early and often while combating a very resilient Patriots defense.
New England hasn't been good this year, but its defense has stepped up in recent weeks. Over their past four games, the Patriots have surrendered 44 combined points.
For most tight ends, a half-dozen receptions would represent a high bar. However, Kelce has hit that mark in three of his last four games and nine of his past 11. If he can't reach the over here, Kansas City could be flirting with another upset loss.
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