NFL Week 14 Picks: Breaking Down Best Value Props and Stars' Outlooks
We're heading into the final quarter of the 2023 NFL season, and the player prop bets Week 14 has in store are some of the most intriguing we've seen this year.
There's plenty of player movement afoot for Week 14. For the New York Jets, quarterback Zach Wilson will earn the start after sitting out the last two weeks. The Minnesota Vikings get top wideout Justin Jefferson back this week. Buffalo Bills tight end Dawson Knox has been activated from injured reserve.
There are plenty more enticing matchups and storylines ahead of Week 14. We'll take a look at three player props you should be considering as you survey the betting landscape this week.
Jalen Hurts Anytime TD (-135)
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There are, quite literally, thousands of NFL player props one could bet on in any given week of the season. But it's not out of laziness that week after week, we return to Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts as an anytime touchdown scorer. This prop is simply the gift that keeps on giving. Happy Holidays.
Hurts has now scored six rushing touchdowns in the last four games, including in three straight after the Eagles' Week 10 bye. In Weeks 11 and 12, Hurts had two rushing touchdowns per game.
Heading into Week 14, Hurts has the second-most rushing touchdowns of any player in the league. Only Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert has more.
In Week 14, the Eagles face off against the division rival Dallas Cowboys. For as good as the Cowboys are this season, however, they're middling when it comes to rushing touchdowns given up per game, averaging 0.8 (16th in the league).
And, truth be told, there are very few opponents against whom this prop wouldn't be a smart bet.
Joe Mixon over 64.5 Rushing Yards (+110)
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Here's a high-value prop heading into Week 14.
It's not surprising that Vegas has Mixon favored to total less than 64.5 rushing yards in Week 14, when the Cincinnati Bengals take on the Indianapolis Colts. Mixon has been spotty this season, coming in under that prop in six games so far this season.
But in yet another week where the Bengals will take the field without Joe Burrow lining up under center, Cincinnati needs to turn to its ground game to keep the wins coming after a gutty 34-31 finish over the Jacksonville Jaguars last week. And what a gift for the Bengals that they match up with the Colts this week, a team that is giving up 133.3 rushing yards per game, the fifth-most in the league.
Though Mixon has come in under this total more often than he hasn't so far this season, he's topped it in two of his last three games.
Zach Wilson over 188.5 Passing Yards (-105)
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After warming the bench for two weeks, quarterback Zach Wilson is back under center for the New York Jets in Week 14 as they take on the Houston Texans.
And while C.J. Stroud and the Texans are likely to rain fire upon the Jets defense, Wilson at least has a chance to participate in the shootout. Houston's defense ranks No. 21 in the league in DVOA against the pass.
In fact, only three teams are allowing more yards per attempt than the Texans (7.2)โthe Washington Commanders, Bengals and Denver Broncos.
In the 10 games he's started this season, Wilson has topped 188.5 passing yards in five.
Find all the props for this week's games at DraftKings.
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