BS Meter on Shohei Ohtani and Latest MLB Winter Meetings Free-Agency, Trade Rumors
It has been a quiet start to the annual MLB winter meetings, but these things can turn on a dime, and the rumor mill was in full swing on Tuesday with plenty of rumblings surrounding some of the top available free agents and trade targets.
Shohei Ohtani remains the biggest storyline of the offseason, and once he makes his decision, it could have a ripple effect on the rest of the market with a wave of moves immediately following his decision.
Slugger Cody Bellinger and Japanese League pitching star Yoshinobu Yamamoto have been two of the other more talked-about names to begin the winter meetings, while Tampa Bay Rays ace Tyler Glasnow is generating buzz on the trade market.
Ahead, we've put together a roundup of the latest rumors to emerge from the winter meetings, and given our take on where they land on the BS meter: low, moderate or high.
Dave Roberts Talks (Too Much) About Shohei Ohtani Meeting
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The Rumor
The Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes have been quiet by design, with the free-agent superstar preferring to keep the rumor mill quiet regarding his future landing spot.
Inevitably, tidbits are going to leak out, and the biggest takeaways on Tuesday came straight from the mouth of Los Angeles Dodgers manager Dave Roberts. Apparently he didn't get the memo on keeping things close to the vest.
The team's interest in Ohtani is no secret, but openly talking about what was supposed to be an under-the-radar meeting was clearly a mistake on Roberts' part.
Would the biggest free agent of this generation really reconsider the Dodgers as a landing spot because the team's manager went against his wishes of not talking to the media about his future?
BS Meter: High
It would say a lot more about Ohtani than it does about anyone else involved here if he were petty enough to hold this against the Dodgers.
Conflicting Reports on Shohei Ohtani and the Cubs
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Rumor
The Chicago Cubs have been something of a surprise contender in the Ohtani sweepstakes given his well-documented desire to play on the west coast, but they check a lot of boxes as a major-market team with the money to assemble a title contender and another former Japanese League standout in Seiya Suzuki on the roster.
One of the biggest rumors early on Tuesday was that the Cubs were falling out of the running for Ohtani, but team president Jed Hoyer shot that down a few hours later, saying there has been no update one way or another on the team's status.
BS Meter: Moderate
Since there won't be any reports coming out of the Ohtani camp, Hoyer can paint the Cubs as serious contenders to sign him right up until he signs elsewhere if they are in fact falling out of the running. Not saying that's necessarily the case, but the secrecy of the whole situation is ripe for some BS.
The Cubs' Backup Plans
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Rumor
The Cubs need to do something to replace the numbers Cody Bellinger posted in the middle of the lineup in 2023 after he hit .307/.356/.525 with 29 doubles, 26 home runs, 97 RBI, 95 runs scored and 20 steals in a resurgent season.
The splashy move would be their continued pursuit of Shohei Ohtani, while simply bringing back Bellinger is also an option as his decision to decline a mutual option was more financial than any indication he doesn't want to stay in Chicago.
Beyond those two bats, the drop-off is significant in a thin market for impact hitters, so it's not surprising to see Matt Chapman and Rhys Hoskins also rumored to be potential targets. To that point, the Cubs and Hoskins have reportedly discussed one-year and multi-year deals.
BS Meter: Low
It makes perfect sense that the Cubs would be lining up a potential Plan B and Plan C if they don't reel in Ohtani. And with limited options available, the names listed here are all logical and realistic targets.
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$300 Million for Yoshinobu Yamamoto?
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Rumor
There is no question Yoshinobu Yamamoto is already one of the most dominant pitchers to ever toe the rubber in the Japanese League.
The 25-year-old finished 17-6 with a 1.16 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and 176 strikeouts in 171 innings during the 2023 season to win his third straight Pacific League MVP award. He has a 1.72 ERA and 986 strikeouts in 967.2 innings over seven seasons with the Orix Buffaloes.
Even with that impressive resume, though, the idea of him securing a $300 million payday is tough to fathom considering Gerrit Cole (nine years, $324 million) is currently the only pitcher in MLB history to ink a $300 million deal.
To take that one step further, only five other pitchers have secured a $200 million payday, with Stephen Strasburg (seven years, $245 million), David Price (seven years, $217 million), Clayton Kershaw (seven years, $215 million), Max Scherzer (seven years, $210 million) and Zack Greinke (six years, $206.5 million) the other members of that exclusive club.
BS Meter: Moderate
It's easy to buy a $200 million deal, especially considering he is only 25 years old, but is someone really going to give Yamamoto the second-richest contract ever for a pitcher? Never say never, but it feels like a stretch.
Mariners Pursuing Cody Bellinger
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Rumors
Eventually, the Seattle Mariners are going to have to start adding pieces to their starting lineup.
With Teoscar Hernández departing in free agency, Eugenio Suárez traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks, Jarred Kelenic traded to the Atlanta Braves and Mike Ford non-tendered, there are 75 home runs and 272 RBI to replace from an offense that had plenty of room for improvement even before that turnover.
Cody Bellinger is the best hitter on the free-agent market not named Shohei Ohtani, so he's a logical target for any team willing to spend money and looking for an impact addition to the middle of the lineup.
The biggest question is where he would fit defensively, as a sizable chunk of his value is tied to his ability to play center field and first base, and the Mariners currently have Julio Rodríguez and Ty France penciled into those spots.
BS Meter: Low
The Mariners have to do something, right? Bellinger might not be the cleanest fit from a positional need standpoint, but he moves the needle offensively.
A Robust Market for Lucas Giolito
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Rumor
A quick glance at Lucas Giolito's numbers in 2023 don't exactly paint the picture of a player who is going to drive a bidding war in free agency.
The 29-year-old posted a 4.88 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 184.1 innings over 33 starts, and he finished on a low note with a 6.96 ERA in 63.1 innings over his final 12 starts with the Los Angeles Angels and Cleveland Guardians after the Chicago White Sox traded him at the deadline.
However, Giolito has been a frontline starter in the past, finishing in the top 10 in AL Cy Young voting in 2019 and 2020, and he is still in the prime of his career at 29 years old and with just over 1,000 innings of work on his arm.
His poor finish to the year could actually wind up making him one of the best bargains of the offseason if he can return to form in 2024.
BS Meter: Moderate
With Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Eduardo Rodriguez, Marcus Stroman and Shota Imanaga still available in free agency, Giolito remains more of a fallback plan for teams that miss out on those top options. It's certainly interesting to see the Royals listed as suitors, and Giolito is plenty familiar with the AL Central.
Cubs, Reds Pursuing Tyler Glasnow
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Rumors
For teams not looking to hand out a nine-figure contract to one of the market's top free-agent starters, Corbin Burnes, Tyler Glasnow, Dylan Cease and Shane Bieber are the four big names reportedly available on the trade block.
Glasnow has dealt with injuries throughout his career, but he is unquestionably a frontline arm when healthy. He threw a career-high 120 innings in 2023 and posted a 3.53 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and a 162-to-37 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
The 30-year-old is owed $25 million in the second season of a backloaded two-year, $30.35 million contract, and the small-market Rays are expected to flip him.
BS Meter: Low
The Cubs and Reds have the prospect firepower, payroll flexibility and need atop the pitching staff to put Glasnow high on their wish list, so their interest makes perfect sense.
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