NFL Week 13 Picks: Breaking Down Best Value Props and Stars' Outlooks
Somehow we're already at Week 13 of the NFL season, which means we only have 1/3 of a season's worth of football left on the calendar. You may as well make the most of it by taking advantage of some of this week's best prop bets.
As the season marches on and patterns begin to take clearer shape, props become even more attractive, because we have so much more data to make informed predictions about what players will (or won't) do in a given game. And yet, the fun of the NFL is that anything could happen on any given Sunday (or Monday, or Thursday, or Friday, or Saturday).
Let's break down three of this week's best props, from a quarterback who's showing a penchant for finding the end zone with his legs to another signal-caller who may not even play four quarters of football in Week 13.
Jalen Hurts Anytime TD (-120)
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Heading into Week 13's Sunday slate, the NFL player with the most rushing touchdowns on the season was Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert (13).
Tied for second-most behind Mostert? San Francisco 49ers unning back Christian McCaffrey...and Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts, who each have 11.
Indeed, Hurts has found the end zone on the ground more often than not this season, tallying such a score in eight of 11 games. In each of the last two weeks, he's done it twice.
What could prevent this prop from happening? Well, the Niners haven't given up a rushing touchdown to a quarterback yet this season; in fact, they've given up only five total on the ground. But Hurts' track record here is too consistent to discount.
Tyreek Hill over 100.5 Receiving Yards (-130)
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Through 11 games, Miami Dolphins wideout Tyreek Hill has racked up 1,324 yards on 88 receptions, by far the most yards among all NFL pass-catchers. The next-most-productive pass-catcher, CeeDee Lamb, has nearly 200 fewer yards than Hill with two more receptions.
With an average of 120.4 yards per game, Hill is on track for an astonishing 2,046 on the year, which would break Calvin Johnson's record of 1,964 and indeed make Hill the first player to top the 2k mark.
Whether or not Hill tops 2,000 yards this season, you can feel good about him racking up more than 100.5 in Week 13 against a Washington Commanders defense that is allowing the third-most passing yards in the league. Hill has failed to post at least that many yards in only four games this season.
Tim Boyle Under 176.5 Passing Yards (-115)
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Unless or until Aaron Rodgers returns this season, the New York Jets are going to continue to ride the sad quarterback carousel featuring Zach Wilson and Tim Boyle. In Week 13, it's Boyle's turn once again, this time against the Atlanta Falcons.
Per Fantasy Pros, in Week 12, among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, Boyle ranked fifth-lowest in yards per attempt. He threw two interceptions last week, including a costly pick-six, so we can assume the Jets will be trying to move the ball on the ground as much as possible to avert more disaster.
And while Wilson was benched for a reason, it's not even a guarantee he won't replace Boyle if the latter really struggles this week, which would all but will this prop into being.
Find all the props for this week's games at DraftKings.
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