Ranking Most Dangerous Teams on the Fringe of the 2023 NFL Playoff Picture
There might be a few teams who have separated themselves as Super Bowl contenders in the 2023 season, but history tells us that it's not a foregone conclusion they will walk away with the Lombardi Trophy.
The past is full of examples of teams that didn't look like the best throughout the regular season but caught fire at the right time.
The 2007 New York Giants infamously ruined the New England Patriots' undefeated season as a 10-6 fifth seed. The 2010 Green Bay Packers were a sixth seed that ran through the playoffs to win another championship.
The upper echelon of the league is strong this season, but each team has already lost at least one game and the margin for error is small. As the rest of the season plays out, there are certain teams that the Chiefs, Ravens, Eagles, 49ers and Cowboys would probably rather avoid in their pursuit of a Super Bowl appearance.
The following teams account for seeds 7-10 in the current AFC and NFC playoff picture. They are ranked by how dangerous they could be to the top teams in the bracket based on advanced metrics, quarterback play and their best performances of the season.
In other words, how scary would they be if they reach their potential come January?
Odds to make the playoffs provided by DraftKings Sportsbook
8. Indianapolis Colts
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Odds to Make Playoffs: +100
The Colts should be commended for being in playoff contention this late into the season. They have a brand new head coach in Shane Steichen and lost starting quarterback Anthony Richardson in Week 5.
They've proved to be a resilient bunch, rallying behind Gardner Minshew to remain relevant with a good shot at getting into the playoffs at 6-5 on the season.
It's a feel-good story and a great sign for the future of the organization under Steichen's leadership, but this isn't a team that's going to cause any of the contenders to sweat.
The best win on the Colts' resume came in Week 3 in overtime against the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are one of the best teams in the league, but that was a while ago and Indianapolis' other wins have come against the Titans, Panthers, Patriots and Buccaneers. In all likelihood, there are no playoff teams in that group.
The advanced metrics don't reveal the Colts to be a particularly threatening team. They are 17th in ELO rating, 21st in offensive EPA and 14th in DVOA.
To make matters worse, Jonathan Taylor underwent surgery on his injured thumb this week and could be out for weeks.
This team has shown positive strides, but it isn't ready for postseason football.
7. Los Angeles Rams
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Odds to Make Playoffs: Not Listed
The Rams are another team that has exceeded expectations simply by still being in the game this far in the season. Outside of Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald, the stars of the team that won the Super Bowl just two years ago are all gone.
Yet, Sean McVay has found a way to continue winning. The Rams are 5-6 and sitting at No. 9 in the NFC.
Two of those wins have come against the Seattle Seahawks and two others against the Arizona Cardinals. It's not a murderers' row of vanquished opponents, but L.A. leapfrogs the Colts on account of having a scarier quarterback in Matthew Stafford and a head-to-head win over Indy.
Ultimately, it feels like the Rams are still in the playoff race because of a lack of depth in the NFC and the fact that McVay is an excellent coach. He's going to get the most out of the roster.
Right now, that means being good enough to fight for a playoff spot but not do much once they get there.
6. New Orleans Saints
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Odds to Make the Playoffs: +100
The Saints' playoff chances took a hit last week when they dropped a 24-15 game to the Atlanta Falcons that would have given them a two-game lead in the division.
Obviously losing that kind of contest doesn't bode well for their shot at making a run in the playoffs, but their defense is still capable of keeping them in a game against one of the NFC's best teams.
New Orleans is seventh in defensive EPA per play and holding opposing passers to the third-lowest passer rating in the league. That last stat stands out because the only two teams who have a lower opponent passer rating are the Browns and Ravens, with the Niners and Cowboys rounding out the top five. Those four sides have a combined record of 32-13.
The difference for the Saints is that their pass rush isn't going to threaten teams. They have just 18 sacks on the year and 46 quarterback hits.
Derek Carr has no track record of playoff success that points to him carrying the team in January, either. He had just one playoff game in nine season as the Raiders starter.
Combine that with the fact that the Saints' five wins have come against the Titans, Panthers, Patriots, Colts and Bears, and this just isn't a team that looks like it's capable of winning a playoff game.
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5. Minnesota Vikings
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Odds to Make the Playoffs: -120
The team that draws the Minnesota Vikings isn't likely to be terrified, but they do have enough to make someone nervous.
Those nerves will likely be calmed by watching the film from the Vikings' 12-10 loss to the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football last week, but the heart rate might climb back up again with the news that Justin Jefferson has been activated from the injured reserve list.
It's hard to judge just how dangerous the Vikings can be now that Jefferson is getting closer to being healthy because when he was healthy, the team still had Kirk Cousins. While he's just 1-3 in the playoffs, he still had four playoff starts and eight game-winning drives to his name last season.
Josh Dobbs has had some impressive performances this year, but he's still 2-9 as a starter this year and coming off a four-interception performance in the loss to the Bears.
But when we're talking about dangerous playoff teams, it's important to look at what that team looks like when it's at its best. The Vikings have beaten the San Francisco 49ers this season and took the Chiefs and the Eagles to the wire.
All three of those games came with Cousins at the helm, so it remains to be seen if they can reach that level with Dobbs. Having a defense that is eighth in EPA per play and an offense that could feature a healthy Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison won't hurt, either.
4. Green Bay Packers
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Odds to Make the Playoffs: -115
The Packers were anything but dangerous amid a 2-4 start to the season that included losses to the Raiders and Broncos.
But they are starting to round into shape just as the home stretch arrives. They've gone 3-1 over their last four games, including a 29-22 win over the Detroit Lions last week. Even the loss was a tightly contested 23-19 defeat at the hands of the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are on pace to be a playoff team.
Jordan Love is the biggest wild card for this team and the element that makes them fairly dangerous come playoff time.
We haven't really seen enough of the 25-year-old to figure out who he is as a quarterback yet. Early in the season, it looked like the Packers might be in the market for a new starter.
For the season, Love ranks 16th in EPA and Completion Percentage Over Expected composite, which is a nice catch-all stat for quarterbacks. From Weeks 9-12, which encompasses their recent 3-1 stretch, he ranks fourth in the metric.
In the last four games, the Utah State product has completed 65.2 percent of his passes and tossed eight touchdowns to just two interceptions. He's finally showing signs of taking over the offense, and his young receiving corps is starting to make plays.
Their recent form and the emergent play of Love was good enough to get past the Lions who are the No. 3 seed in the NFC.
3. Houston Texans
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Odds to Make the Playoffs: -110
Beware the young team that doesn't realize it isn't supposed to be as good as it is. With a rookie quarterback in C.J. Stroud and a first-year head coach, few expected the Texans to be in contention for a playoff spot.
Yet, here we are.
Stroud has wasted no time in elevating the offense to a viable one. Houston ranks ninth on the season in EPA per play, and the signal-caller is already 10th in the league in EPA and CPOE composite.
The Texans are a bit reminiscent of last year's Jacksonville. With Trevor Lawrence taking a leap forward, the young Jaguars completed a comeback win against the Chargers in the Wild Card Round before taking the Chiefs to the wire in a 27-20 loss.
The Texans defense might not be playoff-ready quite yet. But if it finds itself in a postseason shootout, Stroud has proved Houston will be game. It beat the Jaguars by 20 early in the season and nearly rallied from a 24-14 deficit against its AFC South rival last week.
Stroud's stellar rookie season has the Texans a year or two ahead of schedule, but they have proved they are a tough team to blow out. They lost their first two games of the season by double digits, but the three losses since have been by a combined seven points.
2. Denver Broncos
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Odds to Make the Playoffs: +135
Veteran head coach with a bonafide track record of playoff success? Check. Sean Payton has nine playoff wins and a Super Bowl title.
Playoff-tested quarterback? Check. Russell Wilson is 9-7 as a starter in the playoffs with a Super Bowl to his name as well.
Peaking at the right time? It certainly looks like it.
The Broncos check off a lot of the boxes of a playoff spoiler. They obviously have a lot of experience working for them and seem to be rounding into shape in time to push for a playoff spot and cause mayhem when they get there.
After a 1-5 start to the season, they have ripped off five wins in a row. Making that even more impressive is the level of competition. One of those wins came against the Kansas City Chiefs and the latest came against the Browns. The rest came at the expense of teams on this list.
The Broncos aren't just beating up on bad teams. They're beating the teams that are either playoff locks or in the race.
Russell Wilson is starting to jell nicely with Payton's offense. He isn't putting up mind-boggling stats, but he's taking care of the ball and has 20 touchdowns to four interceptions.
This is a well-coached team with a savvy quarterback and a lot of momentum. That's not an ideal matchup for many teams.
1. Buffalo Bills
8 of 8
Odds to Make the Playoffs: +400
The Bills face the longest odds of anyone on this list, but they're still the team that no one wants to see in the postseason.
Playoff success often comes down to defense and who has the best quarterback. The Buffalo defense has taken a major step back this season because of injuries and age, but Josh Allen remains an ace in the hole in any given week.
The quarterback has drawn criticism this season because of turnovers that have come at critical times throughout the season, but he's still playing at a much higher level than most signal-callers in the league.
He's third in ESPN's total QBR, first among all quarterbacks in EPA and he is coming off a game against the Eagles in which he threw for 331 yards and ran for another 81.
The Bills took the 10-1 Eagles to the brink, losing 37-34 in overtime. It was a perfect microcosm of their season as they showed they can still play with anyone in the league, but they've been this close to winning to many times instead of actually finishing the job.
Sean McDermott's team is just 6-6, but it's one of only four teams with a point differential of over 100 points for the season. The Bills are fourth in offensive EPA per play, third in ESPN's FPI rankings and fifth in total DVOA.
They are 2-6 in one-score games this season. There's bound to be some regression to the mean in those games. Given the Bills' underlying metrics and Josh Allen's ability to take over a game, they are much more dangerous than their record indicates.
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