NFL Week 12 Picks: Breaking Down Best Value Props and Stars' Outlooks

The Thanksgiving day NFL slate has come and gone, so now it's time for bettors to consider some wagers for Sunday's action.

While some games should be avoided, such as the New England Patriots versus the New York Giants, there are a number of intriguing matchups on tap this weekend, such as the Buffalo Bills taking on the Philadelphia Eagles.

There are also a number of divisional battles on this week's schedule, including the Houston Texans versus the Jacksonville Jaguars, the New Orleans Saints versus the Atlanta Falcons and Pittsburgh Steelers versus the Cincinnati Bengals.

With plenty of action to bet on, let's take a look at some of the best value props available. (All lines/odds via DraftKings Sportsbook).

A.J. Brown Over 83.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Kyle Ross/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

PHILADELPHIA, PA - OCTOBER 22: Philadelphia Eagles Wide Receiver A.J. Brown (11) reacts after a reception in the second half during the game between the Miami Dolphins and Philadelphia Eagles on October 22, 2023 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA. (Photo by Kyle Ross/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown was limited to just one catch for eight yards in last weekend's win over the Kansas City Chiefs, and at this point in his career, that's unheard of.

After a tremendously quiet outing against Kansas City, the Eagles will surely look to get Brown more involved in Sunday's matchup against the Buffalo Bills, which is one of just a number of reasons to take his over on receiving yards.

Brown has already reached the 1,000-plus yard receiving mark for the second straight season and the fourth time in his career. He has caught 68 passes for 1,013 yards and six touchdowns in 10 games.

Additionally, Brown has recorded more than 83.5 receiving yards in six of 10 games this season.

Furthermore, the Eagles are going up against a banged up Bills secondary that will be without Tre'Davious White and Taylor Rapp due to injuries. With those types of holes, Brown should feast against Buffalo at home.

Derrick Henry Over 69.5 Rushing Yards (-130)

Perry Knotts/Getty Images

JACKSONVILLE, FL - NOVEMBER 19: Derrick Henry #22 of the Tennessee Titans warms up prior to an NFL football game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Stadium on November 19, 2023 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Perry Knotts/Getty Images)

There could be some hesitancy among bettors this weekend to take Derrick Henry's over on rushing yards as he has been under in each of the last two games, but there's plenty of reasons to like the over on Sunday against the Carolina Panthers.

The Panthers have not been able to stop the run all season. They're allowing 129.4 rushing yards per game, which ranks ninth in the NFL, and they are also allowing the second-most points per game in the league at 27.5.

This sets Henry up for a solid matchup on Sunday at home.

Henry has rushed for 663 yards and four touchdowns on 158 carries in 10 games this season. Furthermore, he has been brilliant at Nissan Stadium, rushing for at least 80-plus yards in each home game this year, including two 100-plus yard performances.

Additionally, with rookie quarterback Will Levis still under center, the Titans will likely continue to lean on Henry, especially on Sunday against Carolina.

C.J. Stroud Over 272.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Cooper Neill/Getty Images

HOUSTON, TX - NOVEMBER 05: C.J. Stroud #7 of the Houston Texans celebrates during an NFL football game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at NRG Stadium on November 5, 2023 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

If you're not betting on Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud at this point in the season then, respectfully, what are you doing?

Stroud is in the midst of the best stretch of his rookie season and is coming off three straight games with 330-plus passing yards. He threw for 470 yards against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 356 yards against the Cincinnati Bengals and 336 yards against the Arizona Cardinals, all of which were wins.

Through 10 games this season, he has completed 62.8 percent of his passes for 2,962 yards and 17 touchdowns against five interceptions. He is having perhaps the best season of any rookie quarterback we have seen in a while.

Additionally, Stroud is averaging 296.2 yards per game this season, which more than clears the 272.5 bench mark set by DraftKings for Sunday's matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

It should also be mentioned that Houston is hosting Jacksonville at NRG Stadium this weekend, and Stroud has been lights-out on his home turf, throwing for 300-plus yards in four of five home games this season.

Stroud led the Texans to a 37-17 win over the Jaguars on the road in Week 3 and threw for 280 yards and two touchdowns in that matchup.

The Jaguars still boast one of the NFL's worst passing defenses, too, allowing 254.4 passing yards per game.

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