NFL Picks Week 12 Best Early Player Props to Bet Before Odds Shift
Fans hungry for NFL action will get plenty of it during Thanksgiving Week. All 32 teams will be in action over the next five days, and the festivities kick off with a trio of Thursday games.
The Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions will host the Washington Commanders, respectively, on Thursday afternoon. Then the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers will face off in the Thursday nightcap before the Miami Dolphins and New York Giants battle on Black Friday.
Week 12 will wrap with a fun NFC North showdown between the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears. Plenty of intriguing matchups reside in between, and fans will have no shortage of wagering opportunities over the weekend.
Here, we'll dive into some of our favorite player props for Week 12, based on the early odds.
Find all the props for this week's games at DraftKings.
Jahmyr Gibbs over 45.5 Rushing Yards
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The Lions and Packers will open Thursday's action in the early afternoon, and we're bullish on Jahmyr Gibb's rushing prop. He's -130 (bet $130 to win $100) to hit the over, which he should against Green Bay's 28th-ranked run defense.
Gibbs didn't hit the mark against the Chicago Bears in Week 11, but it's worth noting that Detroit fell behind early and had to play catch-up in the second half. He had no fewer than 60 rushing yards in his three previous games.
David Montgomery remains the starter, and he's also an enticing play at -125 to reach 67 rushing yards. However, with the Lions starting to lean a little closer to a 50-50 backfield split, we really like the rookie against the Packers.
In the first meeting between these two teams, Montgomery finished with 121 rushing yards, while Gibbs chipped in 40.
Dak Prescott over 278.5 Passing Yards
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In Thursday's second game, we like Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott to pass for at least 279 yards (-115). It's a mark he's hit in three of his last four games, though he didn't do it in Week 11.
Last week, the Cowboys played a respectable Carolina Panthers pass defense, and they also got up big early. Things should be much different against Washington on Thursday.
The Commanders rank 30th in passing yards allowed and 32nd in passing touchdowns allowed, meaning Dallas will be inclined to attack through the air. Washington can also get enough out of Sam Howell and its own passing attack to keep this game relatively competitive early.
Prescott has been pulled for Cooper Rush in consecutive blowout wins, but Washington should do enough to keep Prescott in the game and passing for the majority of 60 minutes.
Consider pairing this prop with Prescott over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-190).
Brock Purdy over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
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In case you haven't heard already, 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy finished Week 11 with a perfect 158.3 passer rating. It's an amazing accomplishment not achieved since Joe Montana did it in 1989.
Purdy has also thrown three touchdown passes in consecutive games, and he's -125 to throw for at least two against Seattle on Thursday night.
The over feels like the safe play here for a couple of reasons. For one, he has all of his top targets—Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk—healthy. Secondly, the 49ers have opened up the passing attack since the Week 9 bye.
Lastly, the Seahawks have a good but not great passing defense. Seattle ranks 21st in passing yards allowed, 16th in passing touchdowns allowed and 19th in points allowed entering Week 12.
For added value, consider staking Purdy's prop with an anytime McCaffrey touchdown (-225).
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Jaylen Warren over 47.5 Rushing Yards
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We're likely to see a few offensive tweaks when the Pittsburgh Steelers battle the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. During the week, the Steelers fired offensive coordinator Matt Canada, and according to ESPN's Brooke Pryor, running backs coach Eddie Faulkner will be interim coordinator while quarterbacks coach Mike Sullivan gets the "bulk" of the playcalling duties.
With Canada out, we may finally see Jaylen Warren outpace Najee Harris in the workload department. Warren has been the more explosive back—he had 129 yards on nine carries last week—but has consistently seen fewer carries than Harris.
Given the situation, we like the over (-115) for this relatively low yardage line. Warren has topped 80 rushing yards in three straight games and will face a Bengals defense ranked 31st in both yards per carry allowed and rushing yards allowed.
With Joe Burrow (wrist) out for the season, the Bengals could also fall behind early, leaving Pittsburgh to lean on Warren and the ground game to close things out.
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