NFL Picks Week 12: Early Odds to Exploit for Best Over/Under Score Bets
A full and fun Week 12 slate is set to kick off on Thursday with a trio of Thanksgiving games. The Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions will play host, as is tradition, while the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers will face off in Thursday's nightcap.
Then, the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins will battle in the NFL's first Black Friday game. A typical Sunday-Monday slate will follow with all 32 teams in action this week.
Fans so inclined will have plenty of wagering opportunities in Week 12, and we're here to examine some of our favorite over/under lines based on the early odds.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
Cowboys and Commanders Over 48.5 Points
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This is a high over/under, but it's one we believe the Cowboys and Washington Commanders can reach.
Dallas has been willing to run up the score this season, and it has scored 33 or more points in three of its last four games. The Commanders and their 32nd-ranked scoring defense aren't likely to give Dak Prescott and Co. much resistance.
The one concern here is the status of Cowboys wideout CeeDee Lamb, who is questionable with an ankle injury. However, head coach Mike McCarthy stated that the injury isn't "of a high concern," per Rhiannon Walker of Yahoo Sports.
Even if Lamb is at less than 100 percent, Brandin Cooks, Michael Gallup and Jake Ferguson should get enough going against a Commanders secondary that has struggled all season.
Washington should get enough out of Sam Howell and its offense to push the points total into the 50s. The Commanders have scored no fewer than 19 points in any of their last five contests.
Steelers and Bengals over 34 Points
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This is an extremely low points total, and it's likely the result of Joe Burrow's season-ending wrist injury. With Burrow out, the Cincinnati Bengals will rely on backup Jake Browning against a very adept Pittsburgh Steelers defense.
The Steelers have had their offensive issues, and they're not getting enough from quarterback Kenny Pickett. Some bland offensive play calling has been part of the issue, and on Tuesday, Pittsburgh relieved offensive coordinator Matt Canada of his duties.
"No official announcement, but my understanding is the Steelers are expected to have RB coach Eddie Faulkner take over as OC, with QB coach Mike Sullivan handling play-calling duties," NFL Network's Tom Pelissero posted on X, formerly known as Twitter.
The change could help spark Pittsburgh's offense, and it's not as if the Bengals have a top-tier defense—they rank 30th in yards allowed and have surrendered 22.6 points per game.
In a game featuring playmakers like Ja'Marr Chase, Jaylen Warren, George Pickens and Joe Mixon, this over/under is simply too low.
Chiefs and Raiders Under 43.5 Points
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It may feel strange to favor the under in a Kansas City Chiefs game, but Patrick Mahomes has a receiver problem. He lacks reliable targets after Travis Kelce, and even Kelce has been good for the occasional drop.
Dropped passes doomed the Chiefs on Monday night, and the team has been credited with 25 drops on the season, according to Pro Football Reference.
The Las Vegas Raiders, meanwhile, have played a much better brand of ball under interim coach Antonio Pierce than they did under Josh McDaniels. The defense has been solid and it held the high-flying Miami Dolphins to just 20 points in Week 11.
Las Vegas has surrendered just 38 points over its last three games. It should keep Kansas City from running away with the game, and a potent Chiefs defense should keep the score low.
Kansas City has learned to lean on its defense, and four of its last five games have fallen below 40 total points.
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