Early Predictions for the NFL's QB Carousel in 2024 Offseason
There isn't a more important position in all of sports than NFL quarterback. There's a lot that goes into building a roster that can contend for a championship, but each general manager is in a constant pursuit to find a franchise quarterback unless they are fortunate enough to have one.
That's why there's at least some turnover at the position every season. Whether it be through the NFL draft, free agency or trades, there's always at least some movement as teams search for answers.
The 2024 offseason will be no different, and reading the tea leaves, there are some really intriguing names who could be on the move. From a proven free agent to a pair of stellar prospects and a few notable names who could be available via trade, there are several options out there.
It's still early in the process. The back stretch of the season is going to be important for figuring out where these players will suit up next season. Below, we'll take a look at the notable names, preview their market and make a prediction as to where they will wind up.
Free Agent: Kirk Cousins
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There are a lot of teams that should be interested in Kirk Cousins if he winds up on the free-agent market. The 35-year-old can't be the long-term solution for anyone, but he is ninth in the league in Total QBR and went 4-4 as the starter.
Unfortunately, Cousins' season is over after tearing his Achilles tendon. After the injury, general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah told reporters that "every option is still available with Kirk."
Obviously, that includes re-signing with the Vikings. Given the results for the Vikes with Josh Dobbs at the helm, that might not be the best path forward for Minnesota.
The team traded for Josh Dobbs, and he was forced to come in immediately after a Jaren Hall injury. They've gone 2-0 with him as the starter, and that's even without Justin Jefferson.
The truth is the Vikings have the pieces in place for a quarterback to thrive. With Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson running a Kevin O'Connell offense, Dobbs has shown that the Vikings don't need Cousins to have success.
The Vikings already have a $28.5 million void year on the book next season. Finding a cheaper alternative, like the one they have on their roster in Dobbs, could give them an off-ramp from the Cousins era.
If they take it, there are several teams that could use a veteran to step in and bring viability to their offense. Jeremy Fowler and Dan Graziano of ESPN threw out the Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers as possibilities, respectively.
The Falcons make the most sense, as Arthur Smith might be in a prove-it year. After riding with Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinecke, Cousins would be a massive upgrade.
Prediction: Cousins signs with Falcons
Free Agent: Josh Dobbs
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Josh Dobbs is making a strong case that he can be trusted as an NFL starter this season. He's actually on his third NFL team since camp started, but he's been serviceable as a starter for both the Arizona Cardinals and Minnesota Vikings.
The Cardinals traded for him from Cleveland in August. He started eight games for the Cardinals before they traded him to the Vikings at the deadline to replace Kirk Cousins who tore his Achilles and is out for the year.
It's easy to get swept up in Dobbs' numbers this season. He's 13th in Total QBR, has 11 touchdowns to five interceptions and he's led the Vikings to two wins in his first two appearances.
But when you consider his career to this point and what teams have historically paid for a player like him, his market becomes more realistic. Jacoby Brissett had a similar run as the Browns' temporary quarterback, and he wound up with a one-year, $8.5 million contract.
That's right in line with the two-year, $18 million contract that Spotrac recently forecasted for Dobbs.
If that's the price, the Vikings should happily pay it. Dobbs can keep them competitive while they work to develop his heir over the next two seasons.
If they don't, then the Buccaneers could use him to do the same, or the Jets could sign him to be Aaron Rodgers insurance.
Prediction: Dobbs re-sign with the Vikings on a two-year contract
Free Agent: Baker Mayfield
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After a rocky 2022 season that saw Baker Mayfield suit up for the Carolina Panthers and Los Angeles Rams and struggle at both stops, the former Cleveland Browns quarterback bet on himself.
He took a one-year, $4 million contract with one of the few teams who would give him the chance to prove he can still be an NFL starter.
The bet has worked out pretty nicely. Mayfield has thrown 14 touchdowns to five interceptions and has a QBR of 56.3 on the season, which is his highest number since 2020 with the Browns.
He's played well enough to keep the Buccaneers within striking distance of a mediocre NFC South. The Bucs are just a half-game from the New Orleans Saints.
In all likelihood, Mayfield has earned another year of being the starter in Tampa. It shouldn't keep the Bucs from drafting one of the many quarterbacks who will be vying to be considered a late Day 1 to Day 2 pick, though.
If negotiations go haywire or Mayfield wants to test the waters, then the Packers could be another possibility. Jordan Love has been disappointing, and Mayfield has been better in nearly every metric.
The two could have a quarterback competition in Green Bay that either pushes Love to be better or helps them find another short-term solution.
Prediction: Mayfield Re-Signs with Buccaneers on Two-Year Contract
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Trade: Justin Fields
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The Chicago Bears could be experiencing deja vu all over again at the 2024 NFL draft. Last season, they had the No. 1 overall pick and the opportunity to take a quarterback, which would have meant giving up on Justin Fields in the process.
They passed on that idea and traded the pick away, but now the first-rounder they got from Carolina in that deal could wind up being at the top of the draft again.
Right now, ESPN projects the pick as the second-most likely to be the No. 1 pick. The Giants are the first. It's not guaranteed the Giants will be willing to move on from Daniel Jones after giving him a four-year, $160 million contract last offseason.
That could put the Bears in a position to draft the top quarterback prospect for the second season in a row, and it's going to be harder to pass on it again.
Justin Fields is in the third year of his rookie deal, and his fifth-year option decision is right around the corner. They still don't have a clear answer on what he can do, so it's completely possible they opt to draft Caleb Williams (or Drake Maye), which would make Fields expendable.
If that's the case, any team who is on the hunt for a franchise quarterback but won't have the draft pick to take the top two options could be in play.
The Raiders made a move for Jimmy Garoppolo this offseason, but with Josh McDaniels out of the building, they are a good candidate. Fields would give them a dynamic, promising quarterback for a new head coach to build around.
Prediction: Raiders Trade for Fields
Trade: Kyler Murray
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The Arizona Cardinals are in a similar situation to the Chicago Bears. According to ESPN's draft projections, they have an 82.8 percent chance to have a top-three pick in this year's draft.
If they end up earning that kind of draft pick, it's because the return of Kyler Murray wasn't enough to dig them out of the bottom of the standings. Murray made his debut with the team last week and threw for 249 yards on 19-of-32 passing with an interception in a winning effort against the Falcons.
However, it's important to note that this is not the regime that drafted him. The Cardinals had a changing of the guard while Murray was out with the torn ACL that has kept him off the field.
Monti Ossenfort came over from the Titans to become the GM this offseason. Jonathan Gannon replaced Kliff Kingsbury as head coach.
Ossenfort didn't give Murray the six-year, $235.7 million extension that he's currently playing on. However, he can get out of it with just a $46.2 million dead-cap charge in 2024, as explained by Spotrac's Michael Ginnitti.
That's a steep price to pay, but one that is completely doable if you turn to the draft to find a starter.
If the Cards have a shot at Drake Maye or Caleb Williams once the draft order is finalized, Murray could be on the trade block.
There are plenty of teams that could jump at the chance to add Murray, but the New England Patriots would make some sense.
Mac Jones has struggled because of his inability to create outside of structure and his limited arm. Murray doesn't have those struggles and would be the antithesis to the quarterback that seems to be on borrowed time.
Prediction: New England Patriots Trade for Kyler Murray
NFL Draft: Drake Maye
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The debate between Caleb Williams and Drake Maye is likely to rage from now until April 25, 2024, when a team goes to the podium and makes one of them the first or second pick in the draft.
There are multiple interesting quarterback prospects who are going to compete to be No. 3 in the class, but the debate for No. 1 is a two-man race.
The fact that the field is even that big is a testament to what Drake Maye has done this year. The 6'4", 230-pound quarterback continues to look better and better as Williams has looked mortal at times this season.
B/R scout Derrik Klassen recently moved the Tar Heel to the No. 1 spot in his quarterback rankings.
"Despite a couple losses in recent weeks, Maye has been playing lights-out football. His ability to preempt pressure and navigate the pocket is fantastic. He's got enough juice to scramble around when he needs to as well."
"As a thrower, Maye is the total package. He can launch it 55 yards with ease while also generating the velocity to fit ball into tight windows over the middle and outside the numbers."
If the Cardinals brass doesn't like Kyler Murray, in part because of his 5'10", 207-pound frame, then Maye and his prototypical size and arm could be the favorite out West. They are projected to have the third pick, which could put them in the perfect spot for Maye.
Prediction: Cardinals select Drake Maye
NFL Draft: Caleb Williams
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On the other side of the QB1 debate is Caleb Williams. Sure, he's lost a little bit of momentum, but there's still a strong chance that Williams winds up being the first quarterback taken—if not the first overall pick.
When you watch Williams, the word that comes to mind is special. His ability to maneuver the pocket, make smart decisions with his feet and deliver off-platform throws from multiple angles is what it takes to be a dominant quarterback in the league today.
He has less-than-ideal size, but at 6'1", 215 pounds, we aren't having the Bryce Young conversation.
Williams shows the ability to make adjustments before the snap and typically makes the right read after.
He's the kind of talent that would justify the Bears abandoning their plan to develop Justin Fields if they have the top pick. Really, any team that holds that No. 1 pick should be considering Williams as their first option.
In this case, we'll predict the Panthers wind up with the top pick or the Giants decide to stick with Jones.
Prediction: Bears select Caleb Williams
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