2023 NFL QB Hot Seats: How Much More Time Should Struggling Teams Give the Starters?
There comes a time when it's time, or something like that. When an NFL team is underdelivering and the season has to pivot, change has to be less about wins and more about evaluation.
That's particularly the case when underperformance is related to poor play at quarterback. However, changes under center can give clarity to struggling teams that have aging QBs with potential long-term successors on the depth chart, or unproven signal-callers with unproven alternatives behind them.
With that in mind, let's look at every NFL team that has yet to win more than a game or two and has a malleable long-term quarterback situation and propose an ideal timeline for change in 2023.
New England Patriots
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With five touchdown passes to six interceptions, Mac Jones is the NFL's third-lowest passer.
The majority of his rate-based numbers have dropped since his decent rookie season in 2021.
At 1-4 in an extremely tough division, and coming off a two-game stretch in which they were outscored 72-3, it's safe to say the Pats are on the brink of falling out of contention.
A road loss to the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday would likely end their hopes, but further matchups with the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins could also doom Bill Belichick's team anyway.
The Patriots head coach should give Jones those three games to prove himself. If the team still has two or fewer losses after that, it'll be time to give an extended audition to 2022 fourth-rounder Bailey Zappe.
The odds are not in Zappe's favor, but you never know. At least with enough tape on both guys, the Patriots can make an informed decision on how to approach the 2024 offseason at quarterback.
Tennessee Titans
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Ryan Tannehill is the league's fourth-lowest-rated qualified passer and has little upside considering he's a 35-year-old impending free agent who seemed to peak in 2019 and 2020.
The Tennessee Titans have invested two recent Day 2 draft picks in young quarterbacks: Will Levis (No. 33 this year) and Malik Willis (No. 86 in 2022). The only reason they likely haven't already turned to one of these recent selections is they remain just one game out of first place in the AFC South at 2-3.
However, Tennessee is unlikely to keep up with the Jacksonville Jaguars in the division, and even a shock division win is unlikely to lead to more than a one-and-done playoff experience in the loaded AFC.
Sooner or later, the Titans will have to stop wasting time with Tannehill. He's never going to win them a Super Bowl and this should probably be his swan-song campaign in Tennessee.
The Titans should trade him by the Oct. 31 deadline, a move which should be made easier by a loss to the Baltimore Ravens in London ahead of their Week 7 bye.
Starting in Week 9, one of the younger quarterbacks should be leading this team.
Washington Commanders
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Sam Howell has not been terrible for the Washington Commanders, but he faced an uphill battle coming in as a second-year fifth-round draft pick. And his 86.0 passer rating for a 2-3 team is not worthy any excitement.
The Commanders have lost three straight games, but Howell is coming off two solid performances. He does have a lot of work to do, especially downfield, but the only other option on the roster is Jacoby Brissett.
We're sure we have a feel for Brissett's ceiling at age 30, so Washington should probably sink or swim with Howell unless he takes a major turn for the worse in the weeks to come.
The Commanders should ride with Howell through Week 18.
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Green Bay Packers
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Jordan Love is the league's sixth-lowest-rated qualified passer in his first full season as a starter for a Green Bay Packers team that is 2-3. That's not great, even though he's displayed some game-breaking ability on occasion.
Still, the team is invested rather heavily in the 24-year-old in terms of draft and real-world capital. He was a first-round pick in 2020 with some upside, and rookie fifth-rounder Sean Clifford is the only other option on the roster right now.
That said, there's at least an element of unknown worth exploring with Clifford, who was a consistent four-year starter at Penn State. If the Packers fall out of the playoff picture, they'd be unwise not to take an extended look at the alternative. That's especially the case if Love's numbers continue to decline, as they have since Week 2.
If the Packers don't have more than a few wins when they leave Pittsburgh in Week 10, it might be time to think about a break for Love and an audition for his understudy.
Minnesota Vikings
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The rumor mill is churning as the Minnesota Vikings continue to struggle in a contract year for Kirk Cousins.
The 35-year-old isn't having a bad season with 13 touchdown passes and a 101.7 passer rating, but a 1-4 record combined with the loss of injured receiver Justin Jefferson has many wondering if the Vikes will bail on the veteran signal-caller ahead of the trade deadline.
Even though Cousins has not been the primary issue in Minnesota, and even though there isn't much reason to believe rookie fifth-rounder Jaren Hall can become something special, the Vikings should do exactly that and make a fresh start.
Rest Jefferson, take a long look at Hall, lose games, gain draft capital in the process and jump into 2024 rejuvenated by either the acquisition of a new quarterback or the surprise emergence of Hall.
Cousins shouldn't start more than a few more games for the Vikings.
Carolina Panthers
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Nobody expects the Carolina Panthers to give up on Bryce Young in his rookie season. They are deeply invested in the top pick, and he deserves more than one year to put it together for the team.
However, you do wonder if too much exposure at this early stage might start to do long-term damage to the 22-year-old's confidence.
The team is already 0-5 and facing the Dolphins in Week 6. If that goes as poorly as the last few weeks have for a quarterback with the league's lowest QBR, the Panthers should consider letting Andy Dalton do some of the work while Young works as an understudy.
The 2023 No. 1 pick should be given home games against the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts coming off the team's Week 7 bye, but if things haven't changed by the end of that stretch, the veteran should take over for a few weeks.
Bonus Inclusion: Dallas Cowboys
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Sure, the Dallas Cowboys are in contention at 3-2, but it's worth noting Dak Prescott has been a mess in back-to-back road losses. And at this point in Dallas, it's Super Bowl or bust.
If at some point this season the inconsistent Prescott makes the Cowboys wonder if he has the ability to take the team to its first Super Bowl in more than 25 years, Mike McCarthy and Co. should give Trey Lance a shot.
Why else did they trade for the 2021 No. 3 overall pick?
Lance is extremely talented and has a superstar ceiling, even if he hasn't come close to proving that thus far in his NFL career. Maybe things will be different in Dallas than they were in San Francisco. Maybe he'll be extra motivated this time around.
Or maybe, at the very least, a move to Lance will deliver a swift kick to Prescott's posterior.
Regardless, it's something the Cowboys should consider if Prescott can't get the job done on the road against the Los Angeles Chargers this weekend and/or at the Philadelphia Eagles on Nov. 5.
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