Fan Desperation Meter: Ranking MLB Playoff Hopefuls Based on Urgency to Win it All
Each of the 16 Major League Baseball teams with a realistic postseason pulse wants to win the 2023 World Series.
But some teams (and their fan bases) need a title more than others.
There isn't really a "cursed" MLB franchise anymore. The Boston Red Sox got rid of their bad juju nearly two decades ago, and the Chicago Cubs won it all in 2016. The New York Mets are probably the closest thing to a cursed franchise right now and, well, they aren't one of the 16 teams still realistically in the hunt for the playoffs.
However, we've put together what we are calling a Fan Desperation Meter based on a combination of:
- How long it has been since the team's last championship (if any)
- How many close calls/great seasons they have had over the past quarter century (the more close calls, the more tortured the fan base)
- How good the current team is (the better the World Series odds, the more pressure there is), and
- How well/poorly they are set up for 2024 and beyond
Fans of teams at the bottom of the list will, of course, be upset if and when their club is eliminated, but they will quickly be reassured by memories of a recent title and/or visions of a brighter tomorrow.
The top few teams on the list, though, have a fan base on pins and needles with thoughts like "If not now, then when?" and "Can't wait to see how we blow it this year."
16. Houston Astros
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Latest World Series Titles: 2022 and 2017
Recent Close Calls: Lost 2021, 2019 and 2005 World Series; won 103 games in 2018 and 102 games in 1998
World Series Odds: +550 (third-best)
Outlook for 2024 and Beyond: Better than most
While Houston would love to become MLB's first back-to-back World Series champion since the 1998-2000 New York Yankees, there's no desperation among the Astros faithful heading into October.
Another title would be a luxury; not a necessity.
With both Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman slated for free agency after next season, it might feel like the window is starting to close on the nucleus that has played in six straight ALCS. However, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez, Jeremy Peña and a whole bunch of other players keying this year's run aren't going anywhere any time soon.
15. Atlanta Braves
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Latest World Series Titles: 2021 and 1995
Recent Close Calls: Won 101 games in each of 2022, 2003 and 2002; won 103 games before losing 1999 World Series
World Series Odds: +310 (best odds)
Outlook for 2024 and Beyond: Erecting a statue to Alex Anthopoulos
As the long-standing favorite to win it all, there would certainly be some dejection and disappointment if this home-run-mashing juggernaut falls short of winning its second World Series in three years.
But desperation?
Nah.
Not only did Atlanta just win it all in 2021, but they have each of Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Sean Murphy, Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris II and Spencer Strider locked up through at least the next four years. They also have every key component of this year's team signed through at least 2024, so they'll probably be the preseason favorite next year regardless of what happens this October.
Basically, you get the feeling that Atlanta will win at least one more title between now and 2027.
14. Chicago Cubs
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Latest World Series Titles: 2016
Recent Close Calls: Should have made the 2003 World Series
World Series Odds: +4000 (12th-best)
Outlook for 2024 and Beyond: Pretty good; potentially great if they can convince Bellinger to stay
The Cubs broke the fabled Curse of the Billy Goat seven seasons ago, and this year's team A) wasn't supposed to be this good, already hitting the over on their preseason win total of 77.5 and B) still isn't a particularly strong candidate to win it all.
The only real desperation here would stem from a desire to not squander what might be their only season with Cody Bellinger on the roster.
Even if they're unable to re-sign him, though, Justin Steele is a bona fide ace, the Nico Hoerner/Dansby Swanson tandem might be the second-best middle infield in baseball behind Texas' Marcus Semien and Corey Seager and they are loaded with young contributors and promising prospects in large part because of the fire sale they had at the 2021 trade deadline.
Chicago isn't quite as far ahead of schedule as Cincinnati is, but this is only the beginning of what should be a strong multi-year run.
13. Miami Marlins
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Latest World Series Titles: 2003 and 1997
Recent Close Calls: Nothing worth mentioning
World Series Odds: +7000 (tied for 13th-best)
Outlook for 2024 and Beyond: Not exactly in terrible shape
Excluding 2020—when there were only 60 regular-season games and when eight teams from each league made the postseason—the last team to make the playoffs with a negative run differential was the 2007 Arizona Diamondbacks, finishing at minus-20.
If Miami (currently -57 run differential) sneaks into this year's bracket, there would be no desperation to win it all this year.
Heck, that team would be playing with house money after going 30-12 (and counting) in one-run games.
That said, there is somewhat of a precedent that the Marlins win the World Series when they actually make the playoffs, doing so two out of three times in franchise history. (While Milwaukee, Tampa Bay and Texas are each 0-for-8.)
They're set up pretty well for the foreseeable future, though.
Between super-talented-but-often-injured Jazz Chisholm Jr. and the six players who have been worth at least 2.0 bWAR this season, the only one slated for free agency before the end of 2025 is relief pitcher Tanner Scott, who has one year of arbitration eligibility remaining.
Miami could be a real contender in either of the next two seasons.
12. San Francisco Giants
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Latest World Series Titles: 2014, 2012 and 2010
Recent Close Calls: Won 107 games in 2021; Lost 2002 World Series
World Series Odds: +9000 (15th-best)
Outlook for 2024 and Beyond: Certainly could be better
It hasn't even been a decade since the "Even-Year Giants" won the last of their three championships in the span of five years.
At a certain point, that grace period will expire and the fan base will require another title. But we're not there yet, as this is the only franchise with at least three World Series rings dating back to 2005.
Moreover, there's no expectation that this particular group of Giants will win it all.
Not only do they have basically the worst World Series odds of the 16 teams, but there's no star power on this roster. Like, even if Logan Webb went full 2014 Madison Bumgarner—when he posted a 1.03 ERA in 52.2 innings of postseason work—there might not be enough offense or other starting pitching for it to matter.
As far as the outlook for the next few years is concerned, the contract situations aren't great, but let's see what they actually spend money on this offseason after they made huge offers to both Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa this past winter. At least they do have a lot of young talent already on the big-league roster.
11. Philadelphia Phillies
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Latest World Series Titles: 2008
Recent Close Calls: Lost 2022 and 2009 World Series; Won 102 games in 2011
World Series Odds: +1500 (7th-best)
Outlook for 2024 and Beyond: Set up well for at least one more year
It'd be easy to argue that the Phillies belong in the top 10 solely on the basis of their fans being a special breed of passionate. Fifteen years without a title in Philly is like 50 years pretty much anywhere else.
But based on the four criteria we're looking at, the desperation level isn't particularly high.
The two biggest reasons desperation might seem high is A) they made it right to the brink of a title just last October and B) they could end up with the highest payroll among teams that make the postseason. However, last year's team only won 87 regular-season games before catching fire when it mattered most, and it's not like money brought a ring to New York this season.
The fact of the matter is Philadelphia has won a World Series more recently than 10 of the 16 teams in the postseason mix, it hasn't been a top contender since at least 2011, it's smack dab in the middle of the pack as far as this year's odds are concerned and all seven of this year's most expensive players are also under contract through at least 2024. Nothing there reeks of desperation.
There definitely is some percolating desperation, though, because if they don't win one by 2026, things could get ugly as the nucleus falls apart, save for Bryce Harper and Trea Turner each signed through at least 2031—but each well past his prime for the final few years of those mega deals.
10. Los Angeles Dodgers
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Latest World Series Titles: 2020
Recent Close Calls: Lost 2018 and 2017 World Series; Won 111 games in 2022, 106 games in 2021 and 106 games in 2019
World Series Odds: +425 (2nd-best)
Outlook for 2024 and Beyond: Betts, Freeman...and maybe Ohtani?
I cannot rationalize putting the Dodgers any higher on the list than this, though I really, really want to.
They just won a World Series three years ago. They have Freddie Freeman signed through 2027. They have Mookie Betts signed through 2032. And they've set themselves up perfectly to win the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes this offseason.
That's some primo "not desperate" information.
Still, there is a growing feeling of: When are you going to actually carry your April-September success into October?
When they inevitably clinch this year's NL West, it will be the Dodgers' 10th division title in the last 11 years—the lone exception coming in 2021 when they finished one game behind San Francisco with at least six more wins than every other team in the majors.
Since the beginning of 2013, the Dodgers have won nearly 100 more regular-season games than any other franchise.
Yet, all they have to show for it is one World Series title at the end of the 60-game pandemic year.
If they fail to win it all this season, well, they'll probably reload in the offseason and be really good again in 2024, per usual.
But after blowing fantastic campaigns in each of 2017, 2019, 2021 and 2022, there's a fair amount of pressure for this team to finally show up for Games 163 through 180ish for a change.
9. Baltimore Orioles
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Latest World Series Titles: 1983
Recent Close Calls: Won 96 games in 2014
World Series Odds: +900 (5th-best)
Outlook for 2024 and Beyond: The beginning of a dynasty?
Yes, OK, "dynasty" is a ridiculously strong word here, especially when Orioles owner John Angelos had that whole 'woe is us, how can we afford to pay these players over the long term in our small market?' article in the New York Times last month.
They'll tragically find some way to penny-pinch their way into blowing up this golden goose over the course of the next few years.
In theory, though, this diesel engine is just getting warmed up.
The O's have to be in our top nine because it has been a long time since the last parade down Eutaw Street.
Every team in our top nine has gone at least two decades since its last World Series title. In Baltimore's case, we're talking four decades.
That's quite a drought.
But unless you consider Kyle Gibson or Adam Frazier to be critical pieces of the roster, they'll have all the main guys back for at least one more season, with the likes of Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Kyle Bradish, Félix Bautista and Grayson Rodriguez all at least four more seasons away from reaching free agency.
There's absolutely some desperation to get it done this year, because legitimate contenders have been few and far between in Baltimore. They could/should get to 99 wins this year, which hasn't happened since 1980.
Got to strike while the iron is hot, right?
Well, the Orioles should be pretty good for at least the next three years, making this October more of a "dipping the toes in the pool" situation than a desperate need to win it all right now.
8. Arizona Diamondbacks
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Latest World Series Titles: 2001
Recent Close Calls: Won 94 games in 2011
World Series Odds: +7000 (tied for 13th-best)
Outlook for 2024 and Beyond: Set up pretty well
Arizona has made the playoffs just three times in the past two decades and wasn't expected to be in the mix for this year's postseason field.
If the Diamondbacks are feeling any pressure to win a World Series this year, it's certainly not a product of trying to match the successes of yesteryear.
But in the NL West where the Dodgers and Padres spend like mad and even the woebegone Rockies have a payroll slightly above the league average, it does feel like Arizona needs to capitalize on any window of opportunity that it gets.
The good news, though, is that this should be just the beginning of a multi-year—maybe even half-decade long—window.
Rookie position players Corbin Carroll and Gabriel Moreno have been two of the most valuable assets on the roster, while rookie pitchers Ryne Nelson, Tommy Henry, Brandon Pfaadt, Drey Jameson and Kyle Nelson have gotten a lot of (mostly respectable) work in while carving out long-term roles on the pitching staff. That's a solid nucleus not going anywhere anytime soon.
Beyond those newbies, Ketel Marte is signed through at least 2027, and they'll have both Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly to anchor their rotation for another two years.
They are likely going to lose outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. this offseason and first baseman Christian Walker after 2024, but if they can do something to spruce up the bullpen, the Diamondbacks could be a serious threat to win it all in 2024 or 2025.
7. Cincinnati Reds
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Latest World Series Titles: 1990
Recent Close Calls: Won 97 games in 2012
World Series Odds: +10000 (16th-best)
Outlook for 2024 and Beyond: Just getting started
To even be flirting with a postseason berth in 2023, the Cincinnati Reds are ahead of schedule, arguably by several years.
It's an extremely young roster, and just last season, they darn near set a franchise record with 100 losses.
As is the case with Baltimore, though, we're forced to wonder at what point Cincinnati will penny-pinch its way back out of the contenders conversation.
Per Cot's Contracts, Cincinnati has neither started nor finished a season since at least 2000 with a top 10 payroll. And while they won't need to worry about seriously paying this season's biggest stars—Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Andrew Abbott, Alexis Díaz and T.J. Friedl—for at least another few years, those service clocks are already ticking.
The Reds had a solid four-year window from 2010-13, but had nothing to show for it before retreating to the NL Central basement for a decade.
This might be year No. 1 of that next four-season window, so there's some urgency to not let this one slip away.
6. Minnesota Twins
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Latest World Series Titles: 1991 and 1987
Recent Close Calls: Won 101 games in 2019
World Series Odds: +1700 (9th-best)
Outlook for 2024 and Beyond: Quite a few upcoming free agents
The Twins were able to re-sign Carlos Correa to a big contract this past offseason, but only after both the Giants and Mets balked on their offers to the shortstop.
Aside from that, landing big-name free agents has been a major struggle for this franchise, which does not bode well with Sonny Gray, Michael A. Taylor, Emilio Pagan, Kenta Maeda, Donavon Solano, Tyler Mahle, Joey Gallo and others all on expiring contracts.
They did manage to sign Pablo López to a four-year, $73.5 million extension after trading Luis Arraez to get him, but aside from López and Royce "King of the Grand Slams" Lewis, what are the long-term building blocks here?
Byron Buxton, who can never stay healthy?
Correa, who has provided minimal ROI in the first season of his 6-10 year contract?
Expectations aren't high for the team that is going to win the worst division in the majors. But if they don't do it this year, when can we realistically expect the Twins—who haven't won it all since four months after the original Sonic: The Hedgehog was released—to vie for a title again?
5. Toronto Blue Jays
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Latest World Series Titles: 1993 and 1992
Recent Close Calls: Won 93 games in 2015
World Series Odds: +3000 (11th-best)
Outlook for 2024 and Beyond: Not great, Bob!
Among franchises that have actually won a World Series before, Toronto is pretty clearly the most desperate to get another one in 2023.
For starters, the proverbial door appears to be closing on the Blue Jays.
Matt Chapman, Whit Merrifield, Kevin Kiermaier, Brandon Belt, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Jordan Hicks are all hitting free agency this offseason. And by the end of 2025, they'll either be losing or paying a lot more money for each of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Danny Jansen and Jordan Romano.
And though Chris Bassitt, George Springer and Kevin Gausman are each signed for a lot of money through at least 2025, those veterans aren't getting any younger.
It's not quite as dire as the several-year forecast that led the Washington Nationals to trade away the likes of Trea Turner, Max Scherzer, Kyle Schwarber, Juan Soto and Josh Bell before the 2021 and 2022 deadlines, but there is a mounting "now or never" feeling in Toronto.
Adding to that feeling is the fact that since winning back-to-back titles in the early 90s, the Blue Jays haven't been particularly relevant. There have been some preseasons where they were supposed to be a World Series contender, but they haven't won more than 93 games in a season since '93.
So if the door is closing on this nucleus, will it be another few decades before the next one opens?
4. Seattle Mariners
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Latest World Series Titles: Never
Recent Close Calls: Won 116 games in 2001
World Series Odds: +1600 (8th-best)
Outlook for 2024 and Beyond: Pretty hard to complain
Because Seattle is the only active franchise that has never even been to a World Series, we can't possibly put the Mariners any lower on the list than this.
After 47 years of never coming closer to the promised land than the ALCS flameout in 2001, this passionate fan base would love to finally at least win a pennant, if not a World Series.
But if they don't get it done this year, there's always 2024 or 2025.
Because with the exception of Teoscar Hernández hitting free agency this offseason, basically the entire roster is under team control for at least another two years.
Let's not forget that list includes Robbie Ray, who hasn't pitched since March, but who might/should be able to make it back from Tommy John surgery sometime around the 2024 All-Star Break. And once he's back, Seattle figures to have a rotational nucleus of Ray, Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller—not to mention Bryan Woo, Easton McGee, Emerson Hancock—all of whom are under team control through at least 2026.
And, of course, they've got Julio Rodríguez signed for basically his entire career, so there's always going to be at least one star hitter providing some support for that loaded rotation.
Basically, the M's are just getting started.
They could win it all this year. But they're also going to be in great shape for many years to come. As such, the desperation to get that elusive first ring this October isn't too high.
3. Tampa Bay Rays
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Latest World Series Titles: Never
Recent Close Calls: Lost 2020 and 2008 World Series; won 100 games in 2021; eight playoff appearances in last 15 years
World Series Odds: +750 (4th-best)
Outlook for 2024 and Beyond: Cloudy with a chance of voiding Wander Franco's contract
Given their minuscule annual budget, it's amazing that the Tampa Bay Rays have been able to pretty consistently contend in the loaded AL East over the past decade and a half.
At this point, you almost have to assume that their whole is going to be greater than the sum of their parts and that they'll be in the mix for a World Series appearance more often than not.
But when are they finally going to win one?
The Rays haven't been around for nearly as long as the Mariners, Rangers or Brewers, making their eternal drought a little less painful than it is for those teams. But they've also had more recent close calls than all three of those franchises combined.
Dating back to 2008, Tampa Bay is one of six teams with at least 1,300 wins, along with the Dodgers, Yankees, Cardinals, Red Sox and Braves. Each of those other teams has won at least one World Series in that window, making this franchise that always overachieves its payroll arguably the biggest underachiever when October rolls around.
If you're a fan of men's college basketball, you might recognize this predicament—never winning one, but often coming close, despite being financially light years behind its peers—as Gonzaga Syndrome. And as is the case with the Zags, with each unsuccessful close call, it feels more and more like the Rays are cursed to never win one.
Between all of this year's pitching injuries and the ongoing Wander Franco investigation, that curse is growing stronger.
2. Texas Rangers
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Latest World Series Titles: Never
Recent Close Calls: Lost 2011 and 2010 World Series; Won AL West six times in past 25 years
World Series Odds: +1300 (6th-best)
Outlook for 2024 and Beyond: Depends on whether the old pitchers are even remotely worth their salaries
Without question, the Rangers had the most painful recent close call, losing that 2011 World Series to the Cardinals in excruciating fashion. And because of that blown opportunity, they have MLB's second-longest World Series drought of 63 years, trailing only Cleveland's 75-year run without a ring.
At least Cleveland did win two titles once upon a time, though. Texas has never done it, and next season will be crossing the threshold of 10,000 games without a World Series if it doesn't get it done this year.
However, they're not quite No. 1 on the desperation list, because they at least are built to contend for years to come.
Marcus Semien is signed through 2028, and they've got Corey Seager inked through 2031. At some point, those middle infielders will pass their prime and those contracts will deteriorate from gifts into curses, but for now, that's one heck of a main nucleus.
They've also got Nathaniel Lowe, Adolis Garcia, Jonah Heim, Josh Jung, Leody Taveras and Ezequiel Duran all under team control through at least 2026. Throw in highly touted, recently called up prospect Evan Carter and this should be one of the most potent offenses in the majors over the next three years.
We shall see about the pitching, though.
They should have Max Scherzer coming back next season. Nathan Eovaldi and Jon Gray are signed through 2025. Dane Dunning is under team control through 2026. And, theoretically, they'll have a healthy Jacob deGrom for some portion of the 2024-27 seasons. That should be enough arm power to support a great offense.
But if Texas doesn't win one in the next 2-3 years, more and more baseball fans outside of Arlington are going to start learning about the Curse of Bob Short.
1. Milwaukee Brewers
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Latest World Series Titles: Never
Recent Close Calls: Won 96 games and lost in the NLCS in both 2011 and 2018; Won 95 games and the NL Central in 2021
World Series Odds: +1900 (10th-best)
Outlook for 2024 and Beyond: Going to get ugly in a hurry
The Brewers are at a major contracts-based crossroads; one that led many of us to suggest this past winter that they should trade away co-aces Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff in order to avoid (or at least somewhat mitigate) the massive rebuilding project coming their way after next season.
The exodus of talent this coming winter won't be too bad for Milwaukee. There are seven unrestricted free agents plus Wade Miley with a mutual option, but none of those players have been particularly indispensable.
But as things currently stand, they are also going to lose Burnes, Woodruff, Willy Adames, Rowdy Tellez, Mark Canha and Adrian Houser after the 2024 campaign, which is quite the wholesale reset.
Of the 16 Brewers making at least $1.25 million this season, the only ones under team control beyond next season are Christian Yelich (signed through 2028), Freddy Peralta (club options for 2025 and 2026) and Devin Williams (arbitration-eligible for two more years).
In a word: Yikes.
They do have a solid farm system after several of their prospects made big leaps this season. And they can afford to re-sign some of those impending free agents. However, this is not a remotely deep-pocketed franchise—and the best player of the bunch (Burnes) probably wants nothing to do with re-signing with the Brewers after the way they handled his arbitration hearing last offseason.
If Milwaukee doesn't win it all this year, it will need to decide once again this winter whether it wants to give it the ol' college try one more time in 2024 or start preparing for the future via a fire sale. Because if the Brewers just keep the status quo and go for it next year, there's a good chance they'll be "2011-13 Houston Astros" bad or "2023 Oakland A's" bad starting in 2025.
Considering it took them 26 years to get back to the postseason after making the 1982 World Series, goodness only knows how long it will take the Brewers to become relevant again this time around.
