Every MLB Team's Biggest Breakout Prospect of the 2023 Season
Even with advancements in scouting, it's shocking how often MLB prospect rankings wind up being completely wrong.
Top prospects routinely fail to live up to the hype, while players outside the top-tier conversation are just one breakout performance away from raising their profiles.
That second group is the focus today.
Here, we've highlighted one breakout prospect from each of the 30 MLB organizations, with the focus being on players who were well removed from top-prospect lists at the start of the season. To be eligible for a spot, a player had to still hold prospect eligibility, which means fewer than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on the active roster at the MLB level.
Each player's organizational rank at the beginning of the 2023 campaign, according to Baseball America, is included for context.
American League East
1 of 6
Baltimore Orioles: C Samuel Basallo (Age: 18)
Preseason Rank: 15
After years of ignoring the international prospect market, the Orioles have refocused their scouting efforts. Basallo was one of their first big signings, as he agreed to a then-record $1.3 million bonus in 2021. Following a solid stateside debut in rookie ball last year, he is hitting .287/.373/.474 with 20 doubles, 12 home runs and 61 RBI between Single-A and High-A while throwing out 33 percent of base stealers.
Boston Red Sox: LHP Shane Drohan (Age: 24)
Preseason Rank: NR
For a Boston organization that has struggled to develop pitching talent over the years, Drohan has gone from off-the-radar to arguably the top pitching prospect in the system. The 6'3" southpaw started off the year with a 1.32 ERA in 34 innings at Double-A. While he has struggled a bit since moving up to Triple-A, he has still raised his profile significantly.
New York Yankees: RHP Chase Hampton (Age: 22)
Preseason Rank: NR
A sixth-round pick in 2022 who signed an above-slot $497,500 deal, Hampton has shown a lively mid-90s fastball, tight slider and a swing-and-miss curveball while rapidly climbing the Yankees prospect list. The 6'2", 225-pound right-hander has a 3.86 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 133 strikeouts in 95.2 innings between High-A and Double-A. Continued development of his changeup and overall command could make him a middle-of-the-rotation starter.
Tampa Bay Rays: SS/3B Junior Caminero (Age: 20)
Preseason Rank: 8
Caminero was not exactly unknown in prospect circles after hitting .314 with an .882 OPS and 20 extra-base hits in 63 games between rookie ball and Single-A last year. However, he has gone from a fringe top-10 prospect in a deep Tampa Bay system to a consensus top-10 prospect in the sport this year by hitting .317/.375/.541 with 17 doubles, 18 home runs and 62 RBI in 89 games while reaching Double-A before his 20th birthday. He could share the left side of the infield with Wander Franco for the next decade once he arrives in the majors.
Toronto Blue Jays: LHP Kendry Rojas (Age: 20)
Preseason Rank: 20
Signed out of Cuba for $215,000 in 2020, Rojas is a projectable 6'2", 190-pound southpaw with clean mechanics and the potential for three quality pitches as he continues to fill out his frame. He has a 4.04 ERA and 63 strikeouts in 64.2 innings at Single-A Dunedin this year, and his fastball velocity has ticked up this year, helping to improve his chances of sticking as a starter.
American League Central
2 of 6
Chicago White Sox: OF Jacob Burke (Age: 22)
Preseason Rank: NR
Burke had a breakout junior season at the University of Miami in 2022, hitting .347/.425/.599 with 13 home runs and 58 RBI in 60 games. The White Sox selected him in the 11th round, and he is hitting .314/.417/.467 with 26 extra-base hits in 67 games between Single-A and High-A in his first full professional season.
Cleveland Guardians: OF Jaison Chourio (Age: 18)
Preseason Rank: NR
Chourio is the younger brother of top Milwaukee Brewers prospect Jackson Chourio. While he doesn't have quite the same elite upside, he is a prospect on the rise in his own right. The 2022 international signing has shown an advanced offensive game in his stateside debut, hitting .361/.491/.489 with more walks (35) than strikeouts (33) in 35 games in the Arizona Complex League.
Detroit Tigers: RHP Troy Melton (Age: 22)
Preseason Rank: 21
A fourth-round pick out of Arizona State in 2022, Melton has a 6'4", 210-pound frame that offers a bit more projection than most college starters with a good fastball, swing-and-miss slider and developing changeup. In 75 innings between Single-A and High-A, he has logged a 2.52 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and a 83-to-21 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Kansas City Royals: LHP Anthony Veneziano (Age: 25)
Preseason Rank: NR
Veneziano is on the older end of the prospect scale, and he was well off the top prospect radar entering the 2023 season after posting a 5.72 ERA in 122.2 innings at Double-A last season. The 6'5" lefty has gone 9-3 with a 3.15 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 104 strikeouts in 100 innings in the upper levels of the minors, and he could make his MLB debut before the season is over.
Minnesota Twins: RHP David Festa (Age: 23)
Preseason Rank: 10
With a fastball that touches 99 mph, a high-spin slider and a plus changeup, Festa has electric stuff, and improved command has helped him emerge as one Minnesota's best pitching prospects. The 6'6", 185-pound right-hander still has plenty of remaining physical projection, and he is already trending up in a big way since going in the 13th round of the 2021 draft. He has a 4.76 ERA with 93 strikeouts in 70 innings at Double-A Wichita.
American League West
3 of 6
Houston Astros: IF Zach Dezenzo (Age: 23)
Preseason Rank: NR
A senior signing out of Ohio State in the 12th round of the 2022 draft, Dezenzo hit .407/.474/.628 in 133 plate appearances at High-A Asheville to start the year before earning a quick promotion. He has a .931 OPS and 31 extra-base hits in 69 games overall, and he has played all over the infield in the minors.
Los Angeles Angels: RHP Caden Dana (Age: 19)
Preseason Rank: 13
The Angels gave Dana a $1.5 million bonus—the equivalent of second-round money—as an 11th-round pick in the 2022 draft. The prototypical projectable prep pitcher with a 6'4", 215-pound frame and a big fastball, he has impressed as a teenager in full-season ball with a 3.56 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 89 strikeouts in 68.1 innings between Single-A and High-A.
Oakland Athletics: OF Denzel Clarke (Age: 23)
Preseason Rank: 11
Clarke has taken his impressive collection of raw tools to the Double-A level this season and has impressed with a .261/.381/.496 line that includes 11 doubles, 12 home runs, 43 RBI, 54 runs scored and 11 steals. Despite facing better competition in Double-A, he has trimmed his strikeout rate (32.8 to 29.7 percent), and he still has untapped potential in his 6'5", 220-pound frame.
Seattle Mariners: OF Jonatan Clase (Age: 21)
Preseason Rank: 12
Clase doesn't exactly look the part of an elite offensive prospect with a 5'9", 150-pound frame, but the numbers are tough to ignore this season. In 97 games between High-A and Double-A, he has posted an .829 OPS with 24 doubles, 17 home runs, 57 RBI, 86 runs scored and 59 steals, marking the second consecutive year he has reached 50 stolen bases.
Texas Rangers: SS Sebastian Walcott (Age: 17)
Preseason Rank: 21
Signed for $3.2 million as part of the 2023 international class, Walcott has quickly turned potential into production and is already playing stateside in his pro debut. The 6'4", 190-pound infielder is hitting .289/.348/.554 with seven doubles, seven home runs and 18 RBI in 30 games in the Arizona Complex League. His 34.1 percent strikeout rate is worth keeping an eye on, but the early returns are still extremely promising given his age.
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National League East
4 of 6
Atlanta Braves: SS Ignacio Alvarez (Age: 20)
Preseason Rank: 15
The Braves' position-player pipeline has run a bit dry since Michael Harris II and Vaughn Grissom made their MLB debuts last season, and what is now one of baseball's thinnest farms is top-heavy on pitching talent. With that said, Alvarez is hitting .300/.409/.414 with 28 extra-base hits and 14 steals in 97 games at High-A. He has emerged as the best hitter in the Braves' system.
Miami Marlins: LHP Patrick Monteverde (Age: 25)
Preseason Rank: NR
An eighth-round pick in 2021 after five years of college ball, Monteverde is on the older end of the prospect scale, but a breakout 2023 season has helped change his career trajectory. The 6'2", 200-pound southpaw had a 2.44 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 90 strikeouts in 84.2 innings at Double-A before receiving a promotion to Triple-A, and he offers an extremely high floor as a back-end starter or useful multi-inning bullpen option.
New York Mets: RHP Mike Vasil (Age: 23)
Preseason Rank: 12
Vasil has emerged as the consensus top pitching prospect in a Mets system that is now loaded with position-player talent following their fire sale at the trade deadline. The 6'5", 225-pound right-hander has three above-average pitches, including a high-spin fastball that sits in the mid-90s. He has made strides with his command this year, posting a 102-to-30 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 89.2 innings in the upper levels of the minors.
Philadelphia Phillies: RHP Orion Kerkering (Age: 22)
Preseason Rank: 25
While relief pitching prospects typically aren't included on organizational top prospect lists, Kerkering has been overpowering this season. With a fastball-slider combination that plays up thanks to his deceptive mechanics, he has pitched to a 1.59 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and 12.9 K/9 with seven saves in 36 appearances across three levels. He could make a case for a spot in the bullpen early next season.
Washington Nationals: OF Daylen Lile (Age: 20)
Preseason Rank: 27
Lile signed an above-slot deal as a second-round pick in 2021, but he missed the entire 2022 season recovering from Tommy John surgery. A well-rounded athlete with some intriguing power potential, he has done a nice job shaking off the rust this year, hitting .270/.355/.467 with 22 doubles, eight triples, eight home runs, 54 RBI, 53 runs scored and 22 steals while showing an advanced approach in 82 games between Single-A and High-A.
National League Central
5 of 6
Chicago Cubs: OF Owen Caissie (Age: 21)
Preseason Rank: 13
Acquired in the deal that sent Yu Darvish to the San Diego Padres, Caissie has always had huge offensive upside. The 6'3", 190-pound outfielder has turned that into on-field production this year as one of the youngest prospects in Double-A, hitting .288/.393/.549 with 23 doubles, 21 home runs and 74 RBI in 93 games, albeit with a 31.9 percent strikeout rate.
Cincinnati Reds: 2B Carlos Jorge (Age: 19)
Preseason Rank: 17
Signed for $495,000 out of the Dominican Republic in 2021, Jorge put up strong numbers in two rookie ball stops, but a stellar debut at Single-A Daytona has really put him on the top prospect radar. The teenager is hitting .295/.400/.483 with 11 doubles, nine triples, nine home runs and 31 steals in 86 games, and he profiles as an offensive-minded everyday second baseman.
Milwaukee Brewers: RHP Jacob Misiorowski (Age: 21)
Preseason Rank: 7
The top JUCO prospect in the 2022 draft class, Misiorowski landed an above-slot $2.35 million bonus as a second-round pick. The 6'7", 190-pound right-hander has electric stuff with a 70-grade fastball that routinely touches 100 mph and a 70-grade slider that generates a high chase rate. Smoothing out his mechanics and improving his command was the focus entering pro ball, and he has responded with a 3.72 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and a 98-to-39 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 65.1 innings across three levels.
Pittsburgh Pirates: SS Tsung-Che Cheng (Age: 22)
Preseason Rank: 25
With an advanced hit tool, solid on-base skills and good speed, Cheng is enjoying a breakout season offensively. The undersized 5'7", 173-pound infielder is hitting .305/.377/.504 with 17 doubles, 10 triples, 11 home runs, 44 RBI and 22 steals in 93 games between High-A and Double-A. A more impactful offensive game should help him find an MLB role.
St. Louis Cardinals: RHP Max Rajcic (Age: 22)
Preseason Rank: 21
Rajcic served as UCLA's closer as a freshman in 2021 and then went 8-5 with a 3.28 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 92 strikeouts in 85 innings in a starting role as a draft-eligible sophomore. The Cardinals gave him an above-slot $600,000 bonus as a sixth-round pick in the 2022 draft, and in his pro debut, he has posted a 2.37 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 101 strikeouts in 102.1 innings between Single-A and High-A. He has a high floor as a back-end starter with potential for more.
National League West
6 of 6
Arizona Diamondbacks: LHP Yu-Min Lin (Age: 20)
Preseason Rank: 19
Lin had 91 strikeouts over 56.1 innings in his pro debut last season, and he has backed up that performance by continuing to impress while climbing the ladder this year, posting a 3.77 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 106 strikeouts in 88.1 innings between High-A and Double-A. The 5'11" southpaw lacks elite velocity, but he has three above-average off-speed pitches.
Colorado Rockies: OF Yanquiel Fernandez (Age: 20)
Preseason Rank: 13
Fernandez put himself on the top prospect radar last season when he posted an .848 OPS with 33 doubles, 21 home runs and 109 RBI in 112 games during a full season at Single-A Fresno. His continued success against higher-level pitching has helped him climb onto leaguewide top-100 prospect lists this season, and he's hitting .289/.338/.543 with 20 doubles, 22 home runs and 82 RBI in 88 games across three levels.
Los Angeles Dodgers: C Thayron Liranzo (Age: 20)
Preseason Rank: NR
Breakout pitching prospect Emmet Sheehan has exhausted his prospect status, so instead it's Liranzo who gets the nod as a power-hitting catcher turning heads in the lower levels of the minors. Signed for just $30,000 in 2021, the switch-hitter is batting .258/.382/.523 with 12 doubles, 18 home runs and 50 RBI in 72 games at Single-A, and he has shown solid progress defensively behind the plate.
San Diego Padres: RHP Jairo Iriarte (Age: 21)
Preseason Rank: 13
After scuffling to a 5.12 ERA in 91.1 innings at Single-A last year, Iriarte turned a corner this season with a 2.93 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 92 strikeouts in 70.2 innings between High-A and Double-A. The 6'2", 160-pound right-hander needs to add strength to stick as a starter, but his stuff could play up in a relief role, which is how he's been used since he was promoted to Double-A.
San Francisco Giants: OF Wade Meckler (Age: 23)
Preseason Rank: 23
A walk-on at Oregon State who developed into a two-year starter, Meckler has a unique 60-hit, 30-power offensive profile. He is hitting .371/.456/.514 with 22 extra-base hits in 67 games this season. Meckler has already reached Triple-A after going in the eighth round of last year's draft, but a lack of extra-base punch limits his ceiling. Still, if he continues to hit, he'll find a role.
All statistics courtesy of Baseball Reference or MLB.com and are current through Thursday, Aug. 10.
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