Predicting 2023 NFL Stat Leaders for All Major Categories
The NFL, is first and foremost, a results-driven league. If a team can string together wins, reach the postseason and eventually lift the Lombardi Trophy, it doesn't matter exactly how it got there or how prolific the numbers were along the way.
However, the football world does have a fascination with statistics. Along with championships and individual awards, statistics are usually a driving force behind any player's bid for the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
During an era in which fantasy football has become ubiquitous, we're all paying attention to statistics more than ever. Raw numbers don't always lead to championships, but they can be impressive, fun to follow and even more fun to predict.
Here, you'll find our predictions for the NFL's top statistical leaders of the 2023 season. These predictions are based on a variety of factors, including past performances, projected roles, coaching tendencies and supporting cast.
We'll dive into why we believe these players will be 2023 stat-leaders and examine a few other potential candidates who should be in the running.
Passing Yards: Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
1 of 9
This might be the year in which Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert officially makes the jump from being a talented young quarterback to an elite signal-caller.
The recently extended 25-year-old finished second with 4,739 yards in 2022 and should benefit from the additions of offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and rookie receiver Quentin Johnston.
However, it's hard to pick against reigning passing champ and reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes here. The 27-year-old is only entering his prime and continues to develop under venerated head coach Andy Reid.
"With quarterbacks, the work's never done," Reid told reporters. "... We're always trying to give him new challenges with things and he loves that and loves to attack those types of things. So, that's where it's at."
Mahomes is the best quarterback in the game and has stayed consistent through numerous changes. In 2022, for example, he lost No. 1 wideout Tyreek Hill when Hill was traded to the Miami Dolphins. He went on to lead the league in passing for the first time in his career.
The loss of offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy shouldn't have a significant impact, with Reid still calling the plays and former Chiefs offensive coordinator Matt Nagy stepping back into a familiar role.
And while Kansas City lost wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster in free agency, it added Richie James and rookie Rashee Rice. With Travis Kelce, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Jerick McKinnon also in the mix, Mahomes will have no shortage of receiving options this year.
He will prove once again this season that he's still the top quarterback in the NFL, let alone in the AFC West.
Leader Projections
1. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs: 5,106 passing yards
2. Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers: 5,086 passing yards
3. Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals: 4,892 passing yards
Passing Touchdowns: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
2 of 9
Mahomes also led the NFL with 41 touchdown passes in 2022, marking the second time in his career that he has achieved the feat. Could he do it again? It's certainly possible.
However, while quarterbacks like Mahomes, Herbert and Josh Allen should be up there on the leaderboard, it's time for Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow to make his bid for league MVP. He'll do it by winning a bunch of games and by leading the league in touchdown passes.
Burrow has been nearly as incredible as Mahomes in his young NFL career. A torn ACL cut his rookie season short, but Burrow has appeared in back-to-back AFC Championship Games and has played in one Super Bowl.
Only Mahomes threw more touchdown passes than the 35 thrown by Burrow and Allen in 2022. Burrow hit that number despite not having No. 1 receiver Ja'Marr Chase for a four-game stretch midway through the season.
In Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, Burrow boasts the best wide receiver trio in football, Tight end Irv Smith Jr. has some upside if he can stay healthy, and Joe Mixon is still a serviceable pass-catcher out of the backfield.
In addition to having a strong skill group, Burrow should also benefit from the addition of new left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. Burrow has been sacked 124 times in only 42 regular-season games, and with Brown in the fold, his pass protection should finally be respectable.
The Bengals already ranked fifth in red-zone touchdown rate (64.9 percent) last season. With just a little more time in the pocket, Burrow's impressive touchdown numbers can go up.
Leader Projections
1. Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals: 46 TDs
2. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs: 43 TDs
3. Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers: 39 TDs
Rushing Yards: Saquon Barkley, New York Giants
3 of 9
Everybody loves running backs, except those tasked with paying them. Good backs form the backbone of any fantasy team worth its salt, but NFL teams have shied away from building around them because impressive rushing totals simply don't lead to championships in the modern era.
The last player to lead the league in rushing and win the Super Bowl in the same season was Denver Broncos star Terrell Davis in 1998.
Josh Jacobs led the league last season, but he's been a little inconsistent during his career, and his holdout with the Las Vegas Raiders could bleed into the regular season. Tennessee Titans back Derrick Henry is a two-time rushing champ who is typically in the mix, and that should be the case again in 2023.
However, the pick here is New York Giants star Saquon Barkley. He flirted with a holdout before agreeing to a one-year contract and reporting to camp. Now, Barkley is out to prove that he deserves a lucrative long-term deal.
Barkley will do exactly that by leading the league in rushing for the first time in his career. He ranked fourth in 2022 with 1,312 yards, an impressive feat considering opposing defenses were geared to stop him.
With new pass-catchers like Darren Waller, Parris Campbell and rookie Jalin Hyatt on the Giants roster, Barkley should find just a little more running room in 2023. He'll have to stay healthy, of course, but if he can, the dangerous dual threat could end up leading the NFL in both rushing yards and scrimmage yards this season.
Leader Projections
1. Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants: 1,597 yards
2. Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans: 1,538 yards
3. Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns: 1,481 yards
.jpg?w=256 "Browns Football")
Rushing Touchdowns: Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
4 of 9
In both of his league-leading rushing campaigns, Henry also led the NFL in rushing touchdowns. He tied for second last season (with Austin Ekeler and Jalen Hurts) with 13, only behind Jamaal Williams of the Detroit Lions.
Williams, now with the New Orleans Saints, emerged as a surprisingly effective red-zone threat for Detroit. He averaged a modest 4.1 yards per carry and had only four runs of 20-plus yards, but the 28-year-old frequently found the end zone.
Don't expect Williams to have the same role or success rate with the Saints in 2023.
Henry will be back on top in 2023, at least in the touchdown department. While the Titans have a promising second-year receiver in Treylon Burks and recently added DeAndre Hopkins to the lineup, Tennessee will still feature a run-based offense.
This means that virtually any time the Titans get close to the goal line, Henry is going to get the football. he is also the rare home run threat at running back, one who recorded an impressive 10 runs of 20-plus yards a season ago. He's going to strike pay dirt from further out a few times as well.
Also, don't be surprised if we see a quarterback near the top of the list, as we did with Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts a year ago. Keep an eye on Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields, whose ability to spread things out with D.J. Moore, Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet before racing into the end zone will be a problem for opposing defenses this season.
Leader Projections
1. Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans: 15 TDs
2. Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns: 14 TDs
3. Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears: 13 TDs
Receiving Yards: Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
5 of 9
Minnesota Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson can lay claim to being the league's best wideout both because of his high ceiling and because of his consistency.
In only three seasons, Jefferson has already racked up 4,825 yards. He's topped 1,400 yards every year and led the league with 1,809 yards in 2022. With Dalvin Cook gone, he's now the unquestioned centerpiece of Minnesota's offense, and he should get just enough from rookie receiver Jordan Addison to avoid being triple-teamed by opposing defensive backs.
Expect Jefferson to repeat as the receiving-yardage leader, but also expect it to be close. Hill is entering his second season under Miami Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel, and he's already setting loft goals for himself.
"I will break 2,000 yards next year, bro," Hill said on his It Needed to be Said podcast (h/t ESPN's Marcel Louis-Jacques). "2,000 yards was on my bucket list to get before I leave this league."
Hill finished second in 2022, and he'll finish in that spot again, by the narrowest of margins.
Raiders receiver Davante Adams ranked third in receiving yards a year ago, but he may be in store for a slight drop-off. He'll have a new quarterback in Jimmy Garoppolo, who has a history of not staying on the field. He'll also compete for targets with the likes of Jakobi Meyers, Hunter Renfrow and rookie tight end Michael Mayer in a Josh McDaniels offense that likes to spread it around.
Leader Projections
1. Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings: 1,816 yards
2. Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins: 1,799 yards
3. Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals: 1,701 yards
Receiving Touchdowns: Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
6 of 9
Interestingly, last year's top two yardage leaders finished outside the top 10 in receiving touchdowns. Jefferson had eight, while Hill had seven. Only Adams, who led the league with 14 touchdowns, finished top-three in both categories. He's also ranked in the top five in receiving touchdowns for three straight years.
Kelce, A.J. Brown, Stefon Diggs and George Kittle were the only other pass-catchers who reached double-digit receiving touchdowns in 2022.
Fans should expect a similar cast vying for the touchdown title in 2023, with a healthy Chase—who had 13 receiving touchdowns as a rookie two years ago—also entering the competition.
However, the prediction here is that Kelce will do something he's never done in his Hall of Fame career and lead the league in touchdown receptions.
While Kelce will turn 34 in October, he's shown no signs of slowing down. He's the clear No. 1 option in Kansas City, his rapport with Mahomes has only gotten stronger and he remains arguably the biggest physical mismatch in the game.
Nate Taylor of The Athletic recently called Mahomes and Kelce "one of the greatest two-man connections in NFL history."
The Chiefs, on paper, have more pass-catching depth than they did a year ago. However, the passing game still flows through Kelce, who has reached double-digit touchdowns in three of the past five seasons and will do so again in 2023.
Leader Projections
1. Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs: 13 TDs
2. Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals: 13 TDs
3. Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders: 12 TDs
Sacks: T.J. Watt, Pittsburgh Steelers
7 of 9
This could be the year in which Browns pass-rusher Myles Garrett finally breaks through and pushes for Defensive Player of the Year. Garrett finished second in sacks last season despite not getting much help and will benefit from Cleveland's offseason moves.
The Browns added pass-rushers Za'Darius Smith and Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, along with a proven defensive coordinator in Jim Schwartz.
Schwartz's scheme "fits Myles to a T," according to general manager Andrew Berry, per Dan Labbe of Cleveland.com.
However, Browns fans are used to seeing their team's stars fall just short, and the prediction here is that it happens once again. Pittsburgh Steelers pass-rusher T.J. Watt will retake his crown after a partially torn pectoral kept him out of the 2022 race.
Watt ended up missing seven games last season and wasn't quite the same immediately after his return. However, he still finished with 5.5 sacks, with four coming in his final five games. Over the past three seasons, he's led the league in sacks twice.
By now, Watt should be well-versed in the system of defensive coordinator Teryl Austin, who was new on the job in 2022. He'll also benefit from a reloaded Steelers secondary that added Patrick Peterson and rookie Joey Porter Jr. in the offseason. Opposing quarterbacks will find quick and easy completions difficult to come by, which will give Watt a split-second longer to hit home.
Reigning Defensive Player of the Year and sacks leader Nick Bosa will also be in the mix, though his ongoing contract holdout could lead to a late start and a few early road bumps for the San Francisco 49ers star.
Leader Projections:
1. T.J. Watt, LB, Pittsburgh Steelers: 19 sacks
2. Myles Garrett, DE, Cleveland Browns: 18.5 sacks
3. Nick Bosa, DE, San Francisco 49ers: 17.5 sacks
Tackles: Roquan Smith, Baltimore Ravens
8 of 9
A year ago, Jacksonville Jaguars linebacker Foyesade Oluokun led the NFL with 184 total tackles. While impressive, that's 30 fewer than record-holder Hardy Nickerson, who had 214 for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 1993.
Chiefs linebacker Nick Bolton ranked second in 2022 with 180 tackles.
While Oluokun and Bolton should be in the mix once again, the pick here is Baltimore Ravens linebacker Roquan Smith. Despite being traded from the Chicago Bears to Baltimore mid-season—and therefore having to integrate himself into a new defense with a new supporting cast—Smith finished third with 169 total tackles last year.
Smith has also topped 160 total tackles in each of the past two seasons and had 83 tackles in eight games before departing Chicago last year.
With a full offseason in coordinator Mike Macdonald's system, Smith should be even more productive than he was in his first nine games with the Ravens (86 tackles). The 26-year-old is already a defensive leader.
"He's obviously an incredible player and great personality," Macdonald said of Smith, per Yahoo Sports' Charles McDonald. "He's one of our top leaders,
After finishing in the top six in combined tackles each of the past three seasons—and watching Oluokun take the crown in each of the past two—Smith will break through and finally take his place at the top.
Leader Projections
1. Roquan Smith, LB, Baltimore Ravens: 187 tackles
2. Foyesade Oluokun, LB, Tennessee Titans: 179 tackles
3. Alex Singleton, LB, Denver Broncos: 178 tackles
Interceptions: Tariq Woolen, Seattle Seahawks
9 of 9
In 2022, we saw a four-way tie for the lead in interceptions, with Minkah Fitzpatrick, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Justin Simmons and Tariq Woolen each snagging six picks.
Woolen, a rookie for the Seattle Seahawks, was the only cornerback among the group. He was also incredibly impressive, especially for being a first-year player, starting all 17 games and allowing an opposing passer rating of only 48.7 in coverage.
The prediction here is that the 24-year-old will repeat as the interceptions-leader and stand alone at the top of the proverbial mountain. One big reason why is Seattle's work to improve its defense in the offseason.
The Seahawks added players like Jarran Reed, Dre'Mont Jones, Mario Edwards Jr., Bobby Wagner and rookie cornerback Devon Witherspoon to a Clint Hurtt defense that was transitioning to a 3-4 base a year ago.
Seattle should be better equipped to run Hurtt's scheme this year, and if Witherspoon is as advertised, opposing quarterbacks won't simply be able to avoid Woolen's side of the field. With Geno Smith leading a loaded offense that should rack up the points, opposing quarterbacks should be throwing often.
While Woolen opened training camp on the PUP list following offseason knee surgery, he's expected to make a quick return, according to John Boyle of the team's official website. He'll hear his name called early and often in 2023 and regularly outshine turnover machines like Simmons and Fitzpatrick.
Leader Projections
1. Tariq Woolen, CB, Seattle Seahawks: 7 INTs
2. Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, Pittsburgh Steelers: 6 INTs
3. Justin Simmons, S, Denver Broncos: 6 INTs
*Advanced statistics from Pro Football Reference
.jpg?w=480 "Browns Football")
