Potential 2023 MLB Trade Deadline Busts to Avoid
With Major League Baseball's 2023 trade deadline coming up on Tuesday, well over a dozen teams are on the hunt for that one player who can push them over the top into the playoffs and, hopefully, all the way to a World Series.
But when shopping at a used car lot, you always risk purchasing a vehicle that leaves you stranded with a blown transmission on the drive home.
Last year, the Yankees traded for Frankie Montas, and his ERA almost doubled from 3.18 with Oakland to 6.35 with New York. The Twins gave up four pitching prospects for Baltimore's closer Jorge López, only to have him post a 4.37 ERA as they plummeted from the AL Central lead to nowhere close to the postseason picture. And after the biggest trade of all, Juan Soto slugged a meager .390 with the Padres, while fellow Washington-to-San Diego transplant Josh Bell went from a .301 hitter to a .192 hitter.
So, who are the likeliest lemons on this year's trade block?
Let's make it clear before this article takes a super negative and pessimistic turn that we wish nothing but the best for these eight players. Not rooting against them in any way. This is purely an exercise in regression analysis, highlighting guys who A) might be traded and B) appear to be headed for an August/September decline based on things like BABIP, xBA, xSLG, xERA and xFIP, as well as pre-2023 career numbers.
Players are presented in alphabetical order. Statistics current through the start of play Friday, unless otherwise noted.
Cody Bellinger, CF/1B, Chicago Cubs
1 of 8
2023 Stats: .317/.364/.546, 15 HR, 46 RBI, 55 R, 12 SB, 2.9 bWAR
Contract: $12 million in 2023, $12 million mutual option for 2024
Cody Bellinger's comeback campaign has been some kind of special, particularly as of late. In 26 games played from June 27 through July 27, Bellinger hit .422 (43-of-102) with eight home runs.
But there are some major regression concerns about what is arguably the most coveted position player on the trade block.
Both his expected batting average (xBA) and expected slugging percentage (xSLG) are substantially below the numbers he has actually posted. Because of the combination of his sky-high BABIP and his below-league-average hard-hit percentage, Statcast suggests Bellinger should be batting .264 instead of .317 and should be slugging .433 instead of .546.
Granted, a .264 average with .433 slugging wouldn't be bad by any means. It's on par with what Wander Franco and Dansby Swanson have managed to do this season. However, very few players have a negative gap that wide in either category. And it's worth knowing that he isn't supposed to continue hitting at borderline Freddie Freeman and Ronald Acuña Jr. levels of excellence.
There's also the unforgettable fact that Bellinger was basically unplayable over the past two seasons, when he batted .193 and struck out like there was no tomorrow. While he seems to have gotten past that multiyear funk to re-harness his 2019 NL MVP form, we've certainly seen him slump for a long, long time before.
Elias Díaz, C, Colorado Rockies
2 of 8
2023 Stats: .270/.327/.421, 10 HR, 31 R, 48 RBI, 1.5 bWAR
Contract: $5.5 million in 2023, $6 million in 2024
Elias Díaz was the hero of the 2023 MLB All-Star Game. His two-run home run in the eighth inning turned a 2-1 deficit into a rare 3-2 victory for the National League, garnering him the ASG MVP.
But will he be a hero for a new team over the final two months of the season?
We see three reasons to be skeptical, the greatest of which is Díaz's home/road splits.
In the friendly confines and thin air of Coors Field, he's batting .293 and slugging .493. Among catchers with at least 150 plate appearances, that'd be a top-five slugging percentage and an MLB-best batting average. But put him anywhere else and those marks plummet to .248 and .354, respectively.
Moreover, those plummeted numbers are pretty much where Díaz was at from 2019-22, when he hit .238 and slugged .380.
And he's already nowhere near the hitter that he was early in the year. After batting .335 and slugging .516 through his first 47 games, Díaz is sitting at .200 and .320, respectively, dating back to May 30.
All that said, if you need a catcher, it is seriously slim pickings out there this year.
Unless the Royals are willing to trade Sal Perez—and he's willing to waive his full no-trade clause—the best non-Díaz option is probably hoping that Yasmani Grandal is worth something down the stretch. And considering Grandal ($18.25 million salary) costs more than triple what Díaz does, you might as well take your chances with Díaz.
Lucas Giolito, RHP, Los Angeles Angels
3 of 8
2023 Stats: 6-6, 121.0 IP, 3.79 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, 2.6 bWAR
Contract: $10.4 million in 2023, unrestricted free agent this November
Lucas Giolito has already been traded from the White Sox to the Angels, but he technically could be traded again before Tuesday evening, so what the heck, we'll leave him on here.
Even assuming he stays in Los Angeles, it will be interesting to see if he can figure out how to pitch outside of what had been his home stadium over the past seven seasons. Because in 2023, Road Giolito and Home Giolito have been about as similar as Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde.
At Guaranteed Rate Field, Giolito has made 10 starts with a 2.44 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP. He'd be one of the front-runners for the AL Cy Young if he was pitching that well in all venues.
However, in 11 starts away from home, Giolito has been rocked to the tune of a 5.25 ERA and 1.58 WHIP.
He did go six no-hit innings at Yankee Stadium in early June and went five scoreless innings at Target Field last week. But he has been much more prone to walks on the road, which is contributing to an OPS allowed split of .575 at home and .884 on the road.
Granted, the drastic home/road split went in the opposite direction last year—6.08 ERA at home; 3.83 ERA on the road—and he has pitched better outside of Chicago over the course of his career.
But let's also note that an expected ERA of 4.43, a FIP of 4.46 and an expected FIP of 4.33 all suggest that this fly-ball pitcher is due for a fair amount of regression.
[For what it's worth, Giolito has made five career starts at Angel Stadium, posting good-not-great marks of 3.86 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 11.6 K/9 with five home runs allowed.]
Randal Grichuk, OF, Colorado Rockies
4 of 8
2023 Stats: .307/.364/.478, 6 HR, 38 R, 25 RBI, 0.8 bWAR
Contract: $10.3 million in 2023, unrestricted free agent this offseason
In Randal Grichuk, we find yet another member of the Colorado Rockies who has been more valuable at home.
He actually has more home runs outside of Coors Field (four) than he does in Denver (two), but Grichuk's OPS at home (.914) is more than 130 points greater than it is on the road (.782).
Yes, .782 is still a respectable OPS, on par with what Manny Machado has given the Padres this season (.788). But a home/road difference of more than 130 points is a significant gap of which a buyer should be aware.
Grichuk also has expected numbers a fair amount below his actual numbers. Per Statcast, he should be hitting .274 and should be slugging .427.
And that's a product of a BABIP that is a bit out of control, both by his standards and by the league standards. Grichuk currently has a BABIP of .370, but the last time he finished a season at .310 or better was in 2015. And the current MLB average BABIP is .297.
Long story short, his batting average figures to come back to earth, even though he has been red-hot as of late, hitting .386 with four of his six home runs coming since July 2.
Geraldo Perdomo, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks
5 of 8
2023 Stats: .281/.392/.422, 5 HR, 45 R, 37 RBI, 11 SB, 2.5 bWAR
Contract: $739,000 in 2023, under team control through 2027
Though we're putting their primary shortstop, Geraldo Perdomo, on this list, by no means are we suggesting that the Arizona Diamondbacks will be sellers at the trade deadline.
Rather, with Ketel Marte and Nick Ahmed already on the roster, Blaze Alexander playing well enough in Reno to replace Perdomo as a utility infielder and 2021 first-round pick Jordan Lawlar potentially ready to make the 2024 Opening Day roster, Arizona is in the unique position of being able to consider trading away a 23-year-old All-Star if that's what it takes to improve the starting rotation.
And if the Diamondbacks can make that happen, it could be an incredibly savvy move, as Perdomo has drastically outperformed expectation.
In getting the ball rolling on the research for this article, I pulled Statcast data on all 388 hitters with at least 100 plate appearances. And among those 388 players, Perdomo had the fourth-largest negative gap between his batting average (.278) and his xBA (.209), and the second-largest negative gap between his slugging percentage (.413) and his xSLG (.279).
Basically, based on how hard, at what angle and in which direction he has been hitting the ball, Perdomo should be one of the worst hitters in the majors. And he actually was one of the worst hitters last year, when he batted .195 and slugged .262 in 500 trips to the plate.
We've already seen those wheels start to come off, too.
Since triple-slashing .409/.473/.636 through his first 24 games of this season, Perdomo has batted .237/.366/.347. He also hasn't homered since May 28.
Nevertheless, Baseball Trade Values views Perdomo as the eighth-most valuable player in Arizona's entire organization and suggests that sending him to St. Louis in exchange for Jordan Montgomery and Paul Goldschmidt would be a "moderate overpay" by Arizona.
Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Detroit Tigers
6 of 8
2023 Stats: 6-5, 83.2 IP, 2.95 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 9.3 K/9, 2.3 bWAR
Contract: $14 million in 2023; three-year, $49 million player option this offseason
The contract situation alone makes Eduardo Rodriguez a trade candidate for many teams to avoid.
As things currently stand—boasting by far the best ERA and WHIP of his career—you have to think Rodriguez would opt out of that player option in pursuit of a more lucrative deal. But if he collapses down the stretch or suffers a serious injury, you might be stuck holding the bag for the next three years.
That's not a deal-breaker for a team like the Dodgers, Giants or Yankees, but it is a terrifying proposition for the likes of the Brewers, Orioles, Rays and Reds.
Then, of course, there's the general expectation of further regression.
Let's start with the "further" portion of that, as Rodriguez has already struggled since returning from over a month on the IL recovering from a ruptured tendon in his finger. He had a 2.13 ERA before the injury and is sitting at 5.66 in four starts in July. (Not against potent offenses, either.)
But even with those recent struggles, all signs point to a further ballooning of Rodriguez's ERA, as both his xERA and xFIP are in the 3.50 range.
History also suggests that Rodriguez simply isn't this good. He entered 2023 with career marks of 4.15 ERA and 1.32 WHIP over seven seasons. Texas' Martín Pérez was in a similar boat last year, and his ERA after the trade deadline (3.53) was more than a full run higher than his ERA before the deadline (2.52).
Blake Snell, LHP, San Diego Padres
7 of 8
2023 Stats: 7-8, 114.0 IP, 2.61 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 11.6 K/9, 3.1 bWAR
Contract: $16.6 million in 2023, unrestricted free agent this offseason
Whether or not Blake Snell is actually on the trade block seems to change on an hourly, who-did-you-ask basis. But for argument's sake, let's say the 49-54 San Diego Padres are at least willing to listen to offers for the impending free agent in the middle of his best season in the past half-decade.
Would he be an ace or a lemon for his new team?
Snell has been on fire dating back to Memorial Day, posting a 0.70 ERA with a 13.1 K/9 over his last 11 starts.
But goodness gracious is he issuing a lot of free passes that just so happen to not be scoring often.
For the season, Snell has a BB/9 rate of 5.05, which is worst by far among qualified pitchers. Even during this dominant two-month stretch, we're still talking about 33 walks in 64 innings (4.64 BB/9). And he isn't exactly showing signs of improving with 12 walks in his last two starts.
Snell had a similar walk rate in 2021 (4.83), as well as a similar K rate, a similar BABIP against and a similar FIP. He ended up with a 4.20 ERA that year because his strand rate (74.4 percent) was nowhere near as high as it currently is—an MLB high of 85.9 percent.
For whatever reason, Snell has been better than the vast majority of starting pitchers in that department over the course of his career, and he did finish both 2018 (88.0 percent) and 2020 (89.1 percent) at an even higher mark than this. He also has historically done his best work in August and September, posting a sub-2.60 ERA in each of those months.
But if that strand rate starts to dip down to the roughly league-average marks that he had in each of 2016, 2017, 2019, 2021 and 2022, all those walks would become problematic in a hurry.
Lane Thomas, OF, Washington Nationals
8 of 8
2023 Stats: .290/.338/.482, 16 HR, 69 R, 54 RBI, 12 SB, 3.3 bWAR
Contract: $2.2 million in 2023, arbitration-eligible in 2024 and 2025
Lane Thomas has had quite the breakout year for the otherwise mostly irrelevant Washington Nationals. As far as counting stats go, it took him 100 games to match or exceed pretty much everything he did in 146 games last year in his first full season in the majors.
But can he keep it up if he lands on a new team in a few days?
Let's go back to the home/road splits well one more time to point out that Thomas' OPS at Nationals Park (.899) is a whole heck of a lot higher than his OPS elsewhere (.740).
And after a sensational month of June in which he hit .340/.374/.640, Thomas has sputtered through July, batting .250 and slugging .370. (Though he did have a three-hit, four-SB day against the Giants this past Sunday.)
Those July marks are roughly where he's supposed to be at for the year, too. Thanks to a .360 BABIP that screams "impending regression"—he finished the past two seasons at .293 and .291 in that department—Thomas has an xBA of .257 and an xSLG of .415.
That's a lot to consider for a player who won't come cheap.
Washington's return for Thomas won't even remotely approach the haul it got for Juan Soto and Josh Bell at last year's deadline, but for a breakout player with two years of team control remaining, the Nationals should at least get one top-50-ish prospect.
