Fantasy Football Busts You Need to Avoid in 2023
Nothing can derail a fantasy football team's championship aspirations quite like taking the wrong player on draft day.
Just ask your leaguemate who took Jonathan Taylor first overall last season or the one who took D'Andre Swift at the top of the second round based on his average draft position (ADP).
Both were the kind of guys who were supposed to be weekly starters and could lead a team to bragging rights and fantasy glory. Taylor flopped compared to his massive 2021 season before a season-ending injury, and Swift lost his lead back status to Jamaal Williams.
Forecasting who might be in for a disappointing season relative to their draft position is just as important as finding some hidden gems in your draft.
Here, we'll take a look at some players who are destined to fall short of the expectations based on their current ADP, team situation, recent production and injury history.
TE Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens
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ADP: 22nd overall (TE2)
The way Mark Andrews is being drafted, there's a gulf that exists between him and the rest of the tight ends who aren't named Travis Kelce.
The problem is that gulf didn't exist last season, and there's a good chance it's not going to exist this year, either. Andrews finished third in PPR scoring last season with T.J. Hockenson beating him out for the No. 2 spot, yet the Baltimore Ravens star is being drafted more than a round earlier (Hockenson's ADP is 38th overall).
Hockenson was traded midseason last year, and the Vikings really only added rookie Jordan Addison as competition for the targets vacated by now-Panthers WR Adam Thielen. The Ravens switched to Todd Monken as offensive coordinator, signed Odell Beckham Jr. and Nelson Agholor, and they drafted Zay Flowers.
Throw in a presumably healthier Rashod Bateman, and Baltimore suddenly has a lot of weapons in the passing game.
That's going to make it hard for Andrews to really get the volume to justify a second-round pick.
RB Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
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ADP: 16th overall (RB9)
Derrick Henry was a bust candidate last season based on his mileage and injury concerns. He was coming off a foot fracture that cost him the last half of 2021 and had seen over 300 carries in back-to-back seasons before.
He proved all the doubters wrong with another monstrous campaign, though. Not only did he rack up another 349 carries, but he also had his best receiving season ever. He finished fourth among all running backs in PPR formats and hauled in 33 of his 41 targets for 398 yards.
While he made bust predictions look silly last season, the same concerns are there this year. Henry is just another year closer to the often-discussed running back aging cliff.
He's 29 years old and now has 1,750 carries in his career. While he's a force of nature with a unique build for a running back who can withstand more punishment, Father Time is undefeated.
It also doesn't help that there's going to be uncertainty up front for the Titans. Last year was the first time Henry averaged less than 100 rushing yards per game in four seasons, and now the offensive line is ranked 32nd in PFF's preseason rankings.
Add in the potential for the Titans to turn to rookie quarterback Will Levis at some point, and Henry may unfortunately live up to the bust billing this season.
WR DeAndre Hopkins, Tennessee Titans
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ADP: 59th overall (WR24)
It took a little longer than expected, but DeAndre Hopkins found a new home with the Tennessee Titans. The two-year, $26 million contract he signed might have been good for his bank account, but it doesn't help his fantasy stock.
The 31-year-old will have several factors working against him being able to live up to his current draft price. For one, the Titans were sixth in run play percentage last season and 30th in passing attempts.
This season, those passing attempts might not even be coming from Ryan Tannehill. He's 35 and on the final year of his contract. With the team drafting Will Levis in the second round, Hopkins could be playing with a rookie quarterback at some point this season.
Even if the Titans throw the ball a little more and he ends up getting good quarterback play, it's not clear what his share of the targets is going to look like.
Treylon Burks struggled as a rookie but has reportedly come back looking much better in the lead-up to his second season. Tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo flashed the potential to be a threat at tight end, too.
Both are more intriguing options later in drafts than hoping Hopkins is a solid WR2 in the Titans offense.
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RB Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders
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ADP: 14th overall (RB7)
Josh Jacobs was a league winner last season. He was going late in the fourth round or early in the fifth of fantasy drafts last summer and ended up finishing 10th in PPR points and third among all running backs.
This year, his ADP is reflective of that. But anyone hoping he's going to repeat his breakout 2022 season could be in for some disappointment.
For one, Jacobs has not shown up to Raiders training camp. Tom Pelissero of NFL Network reported that he "has told people close to him that he doesn't plan to return to the team anytime soon."
A lengthy holdout isn't good for anyone involved from a production standpoint, and that includes fantasy managers. Melvin Gordon was the last back to have a holdout that went through training camp.
Gordon's 2019 holdout went four games into the season. Once he came back to the field for the Los Angeles Chargers, he ended up averaging just 3.7 yards per carry with 612 yards in 11 games.
If Jacobs decides to press the issue, managers run the risk that he's going to need time to work back into in-season condition and reacclimate to the offense. It's best to let someone else take on that kind of risk.
WR Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts
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ADP: 47th overall (WR20)
Michael Pittman Jr.'s ADP is directly in line with his 20th-place finish among all receivers in PPR leagues.
That doesn't seem to take into account how drastically different the Colts offense is going to look in 2023.
With the team drafting Anthony Richardson and hiring Shane Steichen as head coach, the offense is going to be completely different. If it was going to look like the 2022 Eagles, then Pittman's ADP would make sense, but that's not going to be the case.
Instead, fantasy managers should be looking at the 2021 Eagles. That was the version that featured Jalen Hurts before he took the next step as a passer. It's still a pretty optimistic look at what the raw Richardson could be in his rookie season.
That year, DeVonta Smith led the team in targets with 104 and finished 30th in PPR scoring.
Last year, Pittman was not all that efficient. It took him 141 targets just to finish 20th, and the Colts were eighth in passing attempts. That kind of volume is going to be much more difficult to come by this season.
QB Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
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ADP: 84th overall (QB8)
There was a time when Dak Prescott was a reliable fantasy football starter every week. Those days might be gone now, even though he's still being drafted that way.
When he was an elite fantasy option, he either had an incredible supporting cast, was running the football—or both. All of that came together in 2019 when he was the second-highest-scoring quarterback in the league.
Since his ankle injury in 2020, Prescott hasn't been as dynamic with the ball in his hands. He only had 45 carries for 182 yards and one touchdown. He ran for six touchdowns in each of his first three seasons and no longer has that element to his game.
The addition of Brandin Cooks and a potentially healthier Michael Gallup could help energize the passing game, but Mike McCarthy taking over as the play-caller might mean less volume
The head coach talked about slowing down the offense to rest the defense after departed offensive coordinator Kellen Moore ran one of the more up-tempo paces in the league.
Throw in the fact that Prescott threw a career-high 15 interceptions last season and it's hard to envision him becoming a weekly QB1 that isn't matchup dependent. With limited rushing upside and questionable volume, he's going to have to be much more efficient to finish in the top 10 in QB scoring.
WR Kadarius Toney, Kansas City Chiefs
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ADP: 64th overall (WR26)
At this point, drafting any Kansas City wide receiver is a bit of a dart throw. With JuJu Smith-Schuster gone, the hierarchy of targets is again a bit of a mystery.
It also makes some sense that some people are turning to Kadarius Toney as a borderline WR2. It's not a bad idea to try to get a piece of the Chiefs offense because someone is going to produce.
But it's also important to note that Smith-Schuster finished WR27 last season and was the most productive receiver the team had.
Travis Kelce is going to be a target magnet, and the Chiefs will likely take a committee approach to distributing the rest of the touches.
It's unclear where Toney will wind up in the hierarchy of Chiefs receivers, but he had surgery for a torn meniscus on Tuesday morning. While head coach Andy Reid said there's a chance he'll be available for the first game, he's going to be missing a lot of valuable time to build chemistry with Patrick Mahomes at camp.
If you're looking to take a chance on one of the Chiefs' receivers, then Skyy Moore (ADP: 123) or Justyn Ross (ADP: N/A) are better as late-round fliers. The latter took snaps with the starters in the first training camp practice.
Both still give you a young receiver with upside in the Chiefs offense at a discounted price.
Average Draft Position (ADP) data is courtesy of Fantasy Football Calculator based on a 12-team PPR league.
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