Buying or Selling Every MLB Team's Updated Playoff Odds
Though the 2023 Major League Baseball season is roughly 60 percent completed, there are only a handful of teams almost certainly locked into (or out of) the postseason picture.
For most of the league, it's anybody's guess at this point whether or not they'll be playing beyond October 1.
So, let's make some guesses.
Please be aware that the buying and selling proclamations within are all about the current betting lines on each team's postseason odds. For instance, buying Seattle at +425 while selling Houston at -330 doesn't mean we necessarily expect the Mariners to finish ahead of the Astros. But if you're trying to win $100, a $23.53 wager on Seattle sure feels like a better bet than risking $330 on Houston.
Moreover, it's a happy accident that we are buying exactly six American League teams and exactly six National League teams. If forced to project the postseason field today, those aren't the 12 teams we would pick. Rather, they are the 12 lines with the most perceived value.
Teams are listed in ascending order of postseason odds, broken into six tiers.
All records, statistics and betting lines are current through the start of play Tuesday. Lines courtesy of DraftKings.
The "No Chance in Hell" Tier
1 of 6
We are selling the "Make the Playoffs" odds for each of these teams, if those odds even still exist. But we wouldn't actually recommend making any of these bets, as there is virtually no return on investment to be found.
Colorado Rockies (36-58)
Kansas City Royals (27-68)
Oakland A's (25-71)
Washington Nationals (38-56)
It will be at least another few weeks before we can mathematically eliminate any team from the playoffs. Technically, Oakland could still win 90+ games.
But these four have been effectively eliminated.
If you were hoping to extract any sort of ROI from betting against these four basement dwellers, here's hoping you already did so, because they no longer even have postseason odds listed on DraftKings, each already at least 14 games back for a postseason spot. Even in the horrendous AL Central, the Royals have no prayer.
Pittsburgh Pirates (41-53)
Line went off the board Monday night
The Pirates were +2800 over the weekend, but they have now joined the ranks of the unlisted.
Even when Pittsburgh started out 20-8 and had the best record in the National League, there was never a particularly profitable time to bet against the Pirates. CBS Sports' Mike Axisa wrote about updated postseason odds in late-April, and Pittsburgh was not one of the eight teams whose percent chance of making the playoffs had increased by at least five points.
Basically, Vegas never believed in their hot start. But at least you could have gotten something by betting against the Pirates 2.5 months ago. No chance to do it now.
Detroit Tigers (42-51)
+2000 to make the playoffs, -5000 to miss the playoffs
If you somehow made me bet on a +1200 or better longshot in either direction, Detroit at +2000 would be the pick.
Both Eduardo Rodriguez and Riley Greene returned in early July from more than a month on the IL, and it's not like anyone else has been all that interested in winning the AL Central. Could do a whole lot worse than betting on a team just five games back in its division.
But, no, I don't actually have any intention of betting on the Tigers here.
Chicago White Sox (40-55)
+2000 to make the playoffs, -5000 to miss the playoffs
Would be fun if we could instead bet on an over/under of how many players currently on Chicago's MLB roster will be traded before the deadline. Put me down for over 5.5 for a team with many impending free agents and no hope of making the postseason.
St. Louis Cardinals (41-53)
+1300 to make the playoffs, -1600 to miss the playoffs
The Cardinals have been the kings of second-half comebacks in recent years, making the playoffs in each of 2012, 2014, 2019, 2021 and 2022 after entering the All-Star Break not in the "if the season ended today" postseason field.
But they were just barely on the wrong side of the cutline in four of those five years and never had to rally from this big of a hole. As with the White Sox, "Will they make the playoffs?" is much less of an intriguing question right now than "Will they embrace a fire sale?"
The "Not Great Odds, but Stranger Things Have Happened" Tier
2 of 6
Chicago Cubs (43-50)—BUYING
+1100 to make playoffs, -1400 to miss playoffs
Can't decide between the Brewers and the Reds as your pick to win the NL Central?
You might be interested in the Cubs as a long shot.
As has been the case for some time now, Chicago is the only team in the division with a positive run differential, but is seemingly cursed to spend the entire season 3-to-9 games back in third place in the NL Central.
But we've had this latter half of July circled as a spot where the Cubs could go on a tear, with 13 straight against the Nationals, Cardinals and White Sox—while both Cincinnati and Milwaukee battle through gauntlets entirely against teams with winning records.
The opportunity is here. They just need to seize it. And if they do, the Cubs would be a very intriguing trade deadline buyer.
Los Angeles Angels (47-48)—SELLING
+800 to make playoffs, -1000 to miss playoffs
It's sad that it has come to this for the Angels.
Per Baseball Reference, the Halos had a 32.8 percent chance (theoretically +200) of making the playoffs as recently as June 27 when they were 44-37. But just a few weeks and a whole lot of losses later, we're left to wonder how much they'll actually get in a trade for two months' worth of Shohei Ohtani.
When they were realistically in the hunt for a playoff spot, they might have been big-time buyers at the trade deadline, going all out to get Ohtani a ring in hopes that he'd then re-sign with them in the offseason. But now it seems they're destined to quietly fade away into a complicated rebuild.
New York Mets (43-50)—SELLING
+500 to make playoffs, -650 to miss playoffs
The fat lady has not yet sung in Queens, but she has at least begun warming up her vocal cords.
If the Mets don't go 7-2 or better in their next three series against the Red Sox, Yankees and Nationals, do they abandon ship for one of the most fascinating fire sales of all time, or do they simply go down with the ship and hope for better luck in 2024 with the vast majority of the roster signed through at least next season?
Or better yet, if they do catch fire to close out July, might the Mets be the ones to pull the trigger on a massive trade for Ohtani?
At this point, that's about what it would take for them to make the playoffs, just so you know what you'd be betting on here.
Seattle Mariners (47-46)—BUYING
+425 to make playoffs, -525 to miss playoffs
Fresh off losing a series at home against the Tigers, it seems safe to say that Seattle did not maintain its pre-ASB mojo of winning consecutive series against Tampa Bay, San Francisco and Houston.
But there's still a lot to like here, including an excellent pitching staff, a forgiving remaining schedule with 13 games left against Oakland and Kansas City and a roster loaded with hitters who are better than they showed in the first half of the season. If those bats wake up before it's too late, the Mariners aren't that far back in the wild-card picture.
San Diego Padres (44-50)—SELLING
+425 to make playoffs, -525 to miss playoffs
Heading into this past Saturday, San Diego was just three games below .500, finally heating up with wins in six of its last seven games.
But then the Padres lost a doubleheader to the Phillies with Fernando Tatis Jr. exiting the latter game with an ankle injury, ending the night once again looking like a team hanging on by a thread.
They still have one of the better run differentials in the National League, but sustained success has eluded their grasp, still searching for their first four-game winning streak of the season.
The "Slightly Favored to Miss the Playoffs" Tier
3 of 6
Boston Red Sox (51-44)—BUYING
+230 to make playoffs, -280 to miss playoffs
The Red Sox just keep hanging around, and it's sounding like they could get at least one major addition around the trade deadline, with rumblings of an impending Trevor Story rehab assignment. It'd be huge, as 2B/SS has been a season-long struggle for the Red Sox.
Do they have enough pitching, though?
Brayan Bello has reeled off seven consecutive quality starts and James Paxton has been mostly great since making his first start in more than two years in mid-May, but the overall state of this pitching staff leaves much to be desired.
If they continue to hang around the playoff picture, though, they certainly should have the money to go out and get at least one more arm.
Cincinnati Reds (50-44)—BUYING
+230 to make playoffs, -280 to miss playoffs
After scoring multiple runs in every game of a month-long stretch in which they went 21-6, the Reds' bats went ice cold at the worst possible time, shutout in three consecutive losses to the Brewers.
But you know what?
That just made the odds much better to bet on Cincinnati.
Because those bats didn't vanish. They just took a little snooze. And it bears mentioning that it was probably the best three-game stretch by Cincinnati's pitching staff in this entire season.
If they can build on that, maybe trade for one starter and get Hunter Greene back from the IL sometime in August, they'll be in business.
Cleveland Guardians (46-48)—SELLING
+195 to make playoffs, -235 to miss playoffs
The two-horse race for the AL Central swung considerably in Minnesota's favor when Cleveland ace Shane Bieber landed on the IL right after the All-Star Break.
The Twins already had the better pitching staff and had hit darn near twice as many home runs as the Guardians have. Throw in Minnesota having one of the easiest remaining schedules in the majors and it was going to be tough for Cleveland to get the job done even at full strength.
It now feels like too much of an uphill climb, in which the Guardians pretty much need to hope that the Twins play sub-.500 baseball the rest of the way.
New York Yankees (50-45)—SELLING
+125 to make playoffs, -150 to miss playoffs
"It's not healed, so obviously it is what it is. But we're making progress every day. ... I've got no date."
That's what Aaron Judge had to say about his toe injury after taking batting practice at Coors Field this past Friday. Maybe he'll be back in a few days. Maybe it'll be another six weeks. Who knows?
Considering the Yankees have gone 30-19 with Judge in the lineup and 20-26 without him, that uncertainty coupled with the loaded AL wild card race makes it very hard to justify betting on New York at what is basically a coin flip of a line.
That said, the Yankees were -155 just a couple days ago, so +125 is at least a considerable improvement if you do want to bet on them.
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The "Slightly Favored to Make the Playoffs" Tier
4 of 6
Arizona Diamondbacks (52-42)—SELLING
-125 to make playoffs, +105 to miss playoffs
Through mid-June, everything was coming up Diamondbacks. At one point, they were 41-25 and were alone in first place in the National League standings.
Not just the NL West. The entire National League.
Since then, however, Arizona has gone downhill in a hurry. Rookie phenom Corbin Carroll has cooled off. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has vanished. And save for Tommy Henry somehow working his way out of a lot of jams, the pitching staff simply has not been as good as of late.
The Diamondbacks might still hang on to make the playoffs, but they shouldn't be favored to do so.
Miami Marlins (53-43)—SELLING
-140 to make playoffs, +115 to miss playoffs
The magic carriage is already starting to turn back into a pumpkin.
Save for a pair of series against insatiable Atlanta, Miami had not been swept in the first half of the season, beating the odds to enter the All-Star Break at 14 games above .500 in spite of a negative run differential.
But the Marlins were immediately swept by Baltimore to open the second half, and still have one of the most difficult remaining schedules in the majors. (Though, home series against Colorado and Detroit before the end of July will keep them from falling apart before the trade deadline.)
With five teams battling for the three wild card spots—and San Diego at least a viable candidate to make it six teams in the hunt—Miami's odds of hanging on should not be this strong.
Minnesota Twins (48-47)—BUYING
-195 to make playoffs, +160 to miss playoffs
Well, if we're selling Cleveland, kind of got to be buying Minnesota, right?
This was much more of a coin flip during the All-Star Break when Cleveland was up by half a game. But even then, Minnesota was the choice to win the AL Central because of its superior pitching and a considerably more favorable schedule.
Granted, the schedule strength has already balanced out a bit after the Twins opened the second half against the A's while the Guardians had to face the Rangers, but Minnesota still holds a clear edge in that department.
If the Twins fail to win the division, it will be because they failed to capitalize on their many remaining lead-padding opportunities against basement dwellers.
San Francisco Giants (52-41)—BUYING
-250 to make playoffs, +210 to miss playoffs
Forty games into the season, San Francisco was 17-23 and looked like a team destined to be a trade deadline seller.
But the Giants have been red-hot since mid-May and are now likely to be one of the most aggressive buyers, seeing as how they never did spend that money they tried to give to Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa and have a lot of needs in spite of their success.
They're going to want at least one outfielder. A middle infielder certainly wouldn't hurt. And they'll surely be looking to add a starting pitcher. And if they're able to pull it off, they should enter the home stretch in better shape than Arizona, Cincinnati, Miami and Milwaukee, who likely can't/won't be as aggressive with their spending.
The "Solid Odds, but Still Plenty of Time to Implode" Tier
5 of 6
Toronto Blue Jays (53-41)—SELLING
-295 to make playoffs, +240 to miss playoffs
This is a perfectly reasonable line, but the concern with the Blue Jays is they have gone just 7-20 against the rest of the AL East and still have at least six games remaining against each of those clubs. And if this is even remotely a photo finish, they end the season with 19 straight against the Rangers (four), the Red Sox (three), the Yankees (six) and the Rays (six).
While it's possible the fourth-place finisher in the AL East earns a wild-card spot, there's no guarantee that even the third-place finisher will get one. And Toronto has been perpetually one rough week away from slipping into fifth place in the division.
Give me -200 odds or better and I'd be buying the Blue Jays, as they should get to at least 88 wins. But -295 is too steep.
Philadelphia Phillies (51-42)—BUYING
-320 to make playoffs, +260 to miss playoffs
Over the past six-plus weeks, the Phillies have been one of the best teams in baseball, even though Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber have all fallen well short of living up to their massive salaries.
Pitching has anchored their turn-around from a rough first two months, as they now rarely allow an opponent to score more than five runs and haven't allowed 10 runs in a game since late May.
They're already in great shape, should start hitting better at some point and have a favorable schedule for the next two months. The Phillies probably won't get back to the World Series, but they should make it back to the postseason.
(However, here's hoping you bet on the Phils five days ago, when you could still get them at -175. Or five weeks ago when they were probably at +320 instead of -320.)
Houston Astros (52-42)—SELLING
-330 to make playoffs, +280 to miss playoffs
Are the Astros likely to make the postseason? Absolutely. They are right in the thick of the AL West and AL wild-card races and have made it at least as far as the ALCS in each of the past six seasons. Both Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez should be back from the IL before much longer. And while they're unlikely to get too aggressive ahead of the trade deadline, surely they can find room in the budget for a much-needed starting pitcher.
Should they have the seventh-best postseason odds in the majors, though? Absolutely not. Save for Framber Valdez, they have been forced to bank on a bunch of inexperienced arms in the starting rotation, and the offense doesn't rank top five in the AL in much of anything aside from avoiding strikeouts. Too much room for error to bet on this team getting implied postseason odds of 77 percent.
Milwaukee Brewers (52-42)—SELLING
-370 to make playoffs, +300 to miss playoffs
This is the toughest call of the 30 teams.
Milwaukee should finish a few wins ahead of Cincinnati to take the NL Central crown, but the Brewers also could edge out the likes of Miami, Philadelphia, San Diego and San Francisco for a wild-card spot should the Reds continue to thrive in spite of their pitching.
Despite a negative run differential and presumably little to no room in the budget/farm system to swing big at the trade deadline, they surely deserve to be favored to make the postseason.
But -370? 78.7 percent odds? Are you sure about that?
Texas Rangers (56-39)—BUYING
-370 to make playoffs, +300 to miss playoffs
The Rangers have the most potent offense in the majors, backed by a strong starting rotation. They limped into the All-Star Break with losses in 19 of their final 31 first-half games, but no need to panic. They'll add at least one more good bullpen arm before the deadline to make sure they don't blow this.
Baltimore Orioles (57-36)—BUYING
-400 to make playoffs, +330 to miss playoffs
Slowly but surely, the oddsmakers and predictive models have come around on the young, small-market Orioles. But it's not too late to cash in on a team that has posted a winning record each month and that might win the AL East for just the second time in the past quarter century.
It does bear mentioning that the O's have a fairly brutal remaining schedule, including a pair of four-game sets against Tampa Bay. But they've more than held their own thus far, going .500 or better against every other team in this loaded division. If they do anything at all to improve at the trade deadline, they'll be playing beyond October 1.
The "Basically Already Locked in" Tier
6 of 6
We are buying the "Make the Playoffs" odds for each of these teams, if those odds even still exist. But we wouldn't actually recommend making any of these bets, as there is virtually no return on investment to be found.
Los Angeles Dodgers (54-39)
-2500 to make the playoffs, +1500 to miss the playoffs
-2500 for a team that is only 2.5 games better than the current No. 6 seed is mighty aggressive, but the predictive models at PECOTA, Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Team Rankings all give the Dodgers at least a 94.9 percent chance of making the postseason. The combined average is 96.7 percent. And -2500 implies a 96.15 percent chance, so it checks out.
But if you're interested in the +1500 side of this equation, hard to argue with you. The Dodgers have been injury-riddled all year, recently lost Clayton Kershaw to the IL, still have not figured out their middle-infield issues and don't have that much of a cushion in the standings.
They certainly should make the playoffs, though.
Tampa Bay Rays (60-37)
-5000 to make the playoffs, +2000 to miss the playoffs
Since surging to a 29-7 start to the season, the Rays have basically played .500 baseball.
Even if they continue to play .500 baseball the rest of the way, though, they would still finish around 92-70, all but guaranteed to make the postseason.
If you want to bet against Tampa Bay winning the AL East (-175), that's another story. But the Rays will at least be in the playoffs.
Atlanta Braves (61-31)
Atlanta is the inverse of the A's, Nationals, Pirates, Rockies and Royals, as the lone team that no longer has listed postseason odds because it's such a foregone conclusion they'll make the playoffs.
After going 27-5 in their final 32 games before the All-Star Break, the Braves would just about need to go 5-27 in their next 32 games to drop out of the playoff picture. They currently have a 7.5-game lead for the NL's No. 1 seed and home-field advantage at least until the World Series.
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