Hot Takes, Predictions for Cowboys' Most Impactful Free-Agent Signings
The 2023 NFL offseason is winding down. The draft has long been over, we're in the final stages of free agency, and most teams have already had or will soon hold mandatory minicamp.
Now is the perfect time to analyze what the Dallas Cowboys were able to accomplish in free agency. As was the case last offseason, much of the focus has been on the team's losses—Ezekiel Elliott and Dalton Schultz, specifically—the draft class and trades.
The Cowboys acquired Brandin Cooks and Stephon Gilmore in deals with the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts, respectively. However, they weren't especially active on the veteran free-agent market.
According to Spotrac, only four external free agents have signed with Dallas to this point, and there are no big names among the group. However, the Cowboys did a nice job of retaining some of their own free agents, and there's always some value in keeping the proverbial band together.
Let's make a few predictions about Dallas' free-agent class before the Cowboys kick off their final series of OTAs on Tuesday.
Dante Fowler Jr. Keeps Spot in Pass-Rushing Rotation
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The Cowboys recently released pass-rusher Takkarist McKinley after initially re-signing him to a one-year deal. It's not a stretch to think they could follow suit with Dante Fowler Jr., who was re-signed on a one-year, $3 million deal in free agency.
Dallas is fairly loaded with pass-rushers. The rotation includes two-time All-Pro Micah Parsons, who is bulking up and converting to a full-time edge-rusher this offseason. It also includes three-time Pro Bowler Demarcus Lawrence, 2022 second-round pick Sam Williams, Dorance Armstrong and rookie fourth-round pick Viliami Fehoko Jr.
If Williams and Fehoko show enough in training camp, a depth player such as Fowler could be on the way out.
The prediction here, though, is that the 28-year-old sticks and again makes a defensive impact. He had six sacks and 21 quarterback pressures in 2022 despite playing only 30 percent of the defensive snaps. That's a solid rate for a rotational rusher.
Williams had four sacks as a rookie and may be ready to take on a bigger role, but Fehoko is unproven. Expect Fowler to stick as a valuable depth piece even if he can't be considered a franchise building block.
Ronald Jones II Doesn't Make the 53-Man Roster
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Of Dallas' external signings—long snapper Trent Sieg, tackle Chuma Edoga, defensive end Ben Banogu and running back Ronald Jones II—Sieg has the best chance of making the roster. Teams, after all, need a long snapper.
However, Jones might be the external free agent most considered an "impact" signing. This is because Dallas released Ezekiel Elliott and needs backfield depth behind Tony Pollard.
Despite landing a $1.2 million deal, though, Jones is no lock to make the regular-season roster. Dallas brings back Malik Davis and has drafted Deuce Vaughn. It also re-signed Rico Dowdle, who hasn't seen a lot of playing time but knows the Cowboys' schemes and personnel.
Dowdle also plays special teams, which Jones hasn't done since playing six snaps in 2019. While Jones has 25 starts on his resume, he had just 17 carries with the Kansas City Chiefs last season and doesn't possess the roster versatility Dallas should want in a deep-depth back.
Dallas could also bring back Elliott, a move that franchise owner Jerry Jones called "wide open for me," per Patrik Walker of the team's official website.
If Ronald Jones is a Cowboy in 2023, it'll be on the practice squad.
Cooper Rush Was Team's Most Underrating Signing
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When a team signs a backup quarterback to a two-year, $5 million deal, few are going to call it an "impact" signing. For the Cowboys, though, that's exactly what the move represents.
Dallas has a quality starter in Dak Prescott, but the Cowboys have also missed him for a significant amount of time in two of the last three seasons because of injuries. Last year, it was a thumb issue that kept the two-time Pro Bowler out of five games.
During Prescott's absence, Cooper Rush kept the offense moving. He wasn't spectacular—posting an 80.0 passer rating with five touchdowns and three interceptions—but Dallas went 4-1 in games that he started.
That came in stark contrast to the 2020 season, when quarterbacks not named Prescott went 4-7. Rush was not with the Cowboys that year.
The hope, of course, is that Prescott remains healthy for all 17 games this year, but it's smart to have an emergency plan. Rush knows the offense, he knows the players, and he has proved he can keep the Cowboys afloat if it's necessary.
Keeping the 29-year-old in the fold wasn't only one of Dallas' best offseason maneuvers, it was also one of the most underrating signings in all of free agency.
Advanced statistics from Pro Football Reference. Contract information via Spotrac.
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