Ranking the 7 Most Improved Offenses After Free Agency, 2023 NFL Draft
The defense might set the floor for an NFL team, but it's the offense that raises the ceiling.
Just look at the final four teams left in last year's playoffs, and you'll see four of the best offenses in the league.
With that in mind, building and maintaining an elite offense is an objective that every team should go into the offseason with. Between coaching changes, free agency and the NFL draft there are plenty of opportunities to make improvements.
Here, we'll take a look at seven teams that are set up to make the biggest gains in 2023 based on what they did throughout the offseason.
EPA per play rankings from RBSDM.com, all other advanced stats from Pro Football Reference unless otherwise noted. Players who remain unsigned are considered losses for their 2022 team.
7. Buffalo Bills
1 of 7
2022 EPA Rank: 2
Key Additions: RB Damien Harris, WR Trent Sherfield, RB Latavius Murray, G/C Connor McGovern, OG David Edwards, TE Dalton Kincaid, OG O'Cyrus Torrence
Key Losses: WR Isaiah McKenzie, RB Devin Singletary, OG Rodger Saffold, OG Greg Van Roten, WR Cole Beasley
The Bills come in low on the list because, statistically, there just isn't much room for growth. Led by Josh Allen, they are already one of the most efficient offenses in football and have won double-digit games for four consecutive seasons because of it.
The problem is they are (or were) a bit one-dimensional. The run game was predicated on Josh Allen using his legs and there was an element of finesse to the Buffalo offense that didn't allow them to win some tougher games.
For instance, the Bills were 32nd in 12 personnel usage, per 33rd Team. Their flaws were exposed in a 27-10 playoff loss to the Bengals. Cincinnati took away Stefon Diggs and forced Buffalo to try to beat them by other means.
The Bills didn't have an answer but they've made personnel changes that will give them a counter. They drafted a second tight end in Dalton Kincaid and a mauling guard in O'Cyrus Torrence. They also signed Connor McGovern away from Dallas.
Damien Harris gives them a between-the-tackles runner, and Trent Sherfield is a blocking wide receiver who could make a difference.
The Bills got better by being more versatile.
6. Baltimore Ravens
2 of 7
2022 EPA Rank: 17
Key Additions: WR Odell Beckham Jr., WR Nelson Agholor, WR Zay Flowers, OC Todd Monken
Key Losses: OG Ben Powers, TE Josh Oliver
Greg Roman was a great offensive coordinator for the beginning of Lamar Jackson's NFL career. He was the architect of the offense that helped Colin Kaepernick succeed in San Francisco and has a long history of building a running game around a mobile quarterback.
But that offense had also become stale, and offensive coordinator Todd Monken could be the key to taking the Ravens from a middle-of-the-pack unit last season to one of the league's best.
He's already making an impression with his new quarterback. Jackson told reporters how much freedom he's enjoying under Monken.
"You can change whenever you want to," Jackson said. "You see the defense and it's not looking right to you, you see a guy blitzing, [or] you might want your receiver to do something different. Coach is giving you the freedom to do whatever you want to."
The shift to a more balanced offense under Monken is clear with the personnel moves they made too. The addition of Odell Beckham Jr., Nelson Agholor and Zay Flowers gives Jackson the best receiving corps he's had in Baltimore.
Jackson will remain a dual-threat quarterback, but the Ravens are a lot more balanced on paper and have the adaptability to win in multiple ways now.
5. Atlanta Falcons
3 of 7
2022 EPA Rank: 19
Key Additions: WR Mack Hollins, TE Jonnu Smith, QB Taylor Heinicke, WR Scott Miller, RB Bijan Robinson, T/G Matthew Bergeron
Key Losses: G/T Elijah Wilkinson, OG Colby Gossett, QB Marcus Mariota, WR Olamide Zaccheaus, WR Damiere Byrd
The Atlanta Falcons are a team that knows who it is.
Arthur Smith fielded two top-10 scoring offenses in his two years as offensive coordinator with the Titans before getting the head coaching gig in Atlanta. He did it by getting the best out of Ryan Tannehill while building the offense around Derrick Henry.
This offseason, Smith took some steps toward having the same setup in Atlanta.
The headliner is obviously Bijan Robinson. Teams don't take a running back with the eigth pick overall unless they plan on making them a centerpiece of the offense. He is the most hyped running back prospect since Saquon Barkley.
But the moves on the margins deserve some respect too. The Falcons have a clear identity as they moved away from smaller receivers like Olamide Zaccheaus and Damiere Byrd while signing Mack Hollins and a tight end to pair with Kyle Pitts in Jonnu Smith.
Re-signing Kaleb McGary wasn't an addition, but it fits nicely with the Falcons physical, run-heavy identity. The selection of Matthew Bergeron in the second round solidified the approach as well.
The Falcons have a clear identity and plan. That's going to go a long way in protecting Desmond Ridder and giving him a chance to succeed in his second season.
.jpg?w=256 "Cardinals Bengals Football")
4. Denver Broncos
4 of 7
2022 EPA Rank: 27
Key Additions: OT Mike McGlinchey, WR Marquez Callaway, TE Adam Trautman, OG Ben Powers, WR Marvin Mims, RB Samaje Perine, HC Sean Payton
Key Losses: RB Chase Edmonds, TE Eric Saubert, T/G Billy Turner, OG Graham Glasgow, OT Calvin Anderson, TE Eric Tomlinson
There's nowhere to go but up for the Denver Broncos offense after an unmitigated disaster in 2022.
The Russell Wilson trade could not have looked worse through one season. The Broncos gave up a ton to get their quarterback, and he ranked 27th in QBR while the offense was last in the league in scoring.
There's not much the Broncos can do at the position thanks to Wilson's onerous contract.
Instead, they went for better coaching and improved pass protection. They traded for Sean Payton after firing Nathaniel Hackett. Payton was the most proven coach available and carries the kind of gravitas needed to maximize whatever Wilson has left in the tank.
Ben Powers and Mike McGlinchey were key additions on the offensive line. Powers gave up no sacks on over 1,000 snaps, per PFF. McGlinchey is a little shakier with six sacks allowed last season, but he's a consistent veteran starter.
They also added important depth behind Javonte Williams with the Samaje Perine signing and reinforcements to an already deep pass-catching group with rookie Marvin Mims, trade target Adam Trautman and free-agent signee Marquez Callaway.
It still depends on Wilson bouncing back, but the ingredients are there to go from the offensive cellar to at least the middle of the league in 2023.
3. Chicago Bears
5 of 7
2022 EPA Rank: 23
Key Additions: WR D.J. Moore, TE Robert Tonyan, RB D'Onta Foreman, OG Nate Davis, RB Travis Homer, OT Darnell Wright, RB Roschon Johnson
Key Losses: RB David Montgomery, OT Riley Reiff, C Sam Mustipher, OG Michael Schofield, WR Byron Pringle, WR N'Keal Harry
The Chicago Bears' top priority needed to be to continue to build around Justin Fields.
Mission accomplished.
In trading back from No. 1, the Bears not only gave their quarterback the full seal of approval, but they got a No. 1 wide receiver. D.J. Moore is going to be huge for Fields' development as a passer. He has been a strong producer in a Panthers offense that hasn't had great quarterback play.
David Montgomery was the most significant loss, but they did more than enough to replace him. D'Onta Foreman had 113 more yards than Montgomery on two more carries last season. Fourth-round selection Roschon Johnson will play an immediate role too.
Nate Davis was one of the most underrated free agent signings in the league. He was the 17th highest-ranked guard by PFF last season and adds credibility to their front five.
Darnell Wright will be an X-factor. If it turns out he was worth the No. 10 overall selection, the Bears will have answers to a lot of their questions. If he can pair with Braxton Jones to give them a strong, young tackle duo they will have something special.
2. New Orleans Saints
6 of 7
2022 EPA Rank: 22
Key Additions: QB Derek Carr, RB Jamaal Williams, RB Kendre Miller, TE Foster Moreau
Key Losses: QB Andy Dalton, TE Adam Trautman, WR Marquez Callaway, RB Mark Ingram, WR Jarvis Landry
When you look at who the Saints lost on offense this offseason there isn't a single player they will miss based on who they have on the roster or who is replacing them.
Adding Derek Carr gives them a viable starter for years. He has finished 14th in total QBR in each of the last two seasons.
Jarvis Landry (272 yards) and Marquez Callaway (158 yards) weren't difference-makers last season in the receiving corps. Their departure isn't likely to hurt and swapping out Mark Ingram for Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller gives the backfield more depth and youth moving forward.
The team traded away Adam Trautman but replaced him with Foster Moreau who has familiarity with Carr from their time with the Raiders.
Going from Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston to Derek Carr was one of the biggest quarterback upgrades of the offseason. There were no huge additions outside of Carr, but that's enough to land them highly on this list.
1. New York Jets
7 of 7
2022 EPA Rank: 30
Key Additions: QB Aaron Rodgers, C Wes Schweitzer, WR Allen Lazard, WR Randall Cobb, T/G Billy Turner, WR Mecole Hardman, C Joe Tippmann, OC Nathaniel Hackett
Key Losses: WR Elijah Moore, WR Braxton Berrios, QB Mike White, RB James Robinson, OG Nate Herbig, OT George Fant, QB Joe Flacco
Whether the Jets invested too much or are leaning too heavily on Rodgers to be the difference is up for debate. The fact that he's a massive upgrade over Zach Wilson is not.
Last season was rough for Rodgers. He was working with a young, unproven group of receivers, the offensive line had injuries and the Packers were dealing with the loss of former offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. It all contributed to a career-low 39.3 QBR from Rodgers.
That number was still better than the 36.5 that Wilson posted in his sophomore campaign.
The Jets have reunited Rodgers with Hackett in hopes of him recapturing some of the magic from their time in Green Bay together.
Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb and Billy Turner also contribute to the New York Packers feel of the whole offseason.
The result might not be an elite offense, but the Jets put in the offseason work to go from bad to average. That's a huge chasm in the league. If Rodgers can reclaim his MVP level than the ceiling is even higher for this unit.
.jpg?w=480 "Cardinals Bengals Football")
.jpg?w=600 "Lawrence 'Jacked' About Trade")
.jpg?w=600 "Coached Stunned by Lawrence Trade")
.jpg?w=600 "Giants Picking 5th and 10th")
.jpg?w=600 "NFL Not Investigating Mike Vrabel")