UFC on ABC 4: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida Odds, Schedule, Predictions
The UFC heads to Charlotte for its fourth offering on ABC with a heavyweight tilt between Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Jailton Almeida.
The two will headline the main event in an important fight for the landscape of the heavyweight division. Rozenstruik has become a well-known entity in the rankings, but the Brazilian joins him in the final fight looking to make a name for himself and take a big step toward becoming a contender.
It's an important fight for both as Rozenstruik tries to remain relevant and Almeida tries to prove himself.
The dynamic is much different in the co-main event between Anthony Smith and Johnny Walker. Smith is an established veteran who continues to be a tough out at 34 years old. Walker went from highly hyped prospect to bust and is now quietly working his way back into being interesting again.
It's a fun two-fight series to cap the matinee. Here's a look at the complete card along with a closer look at the featured events.
Fight Card, Schedule and Odds
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Main Card (ABC/ESPN+, 3 p.m. ET)
- Jailton Almeida (-490) vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik (-+390)
- Anthony Smith (-110) vs. Johnny Walker (-110)
- Ian Garry (-300) vs. Daniel Rodriguez (+250)
- Ihor Potieria (+340) vs. Carlos Ulberg (-425)
- Tim Means (+185) vs. Alex Morono (-215)
Prelims (ESPN/ESPN+, 11:30 a.m. ET)
- Matt Brown (+185) vs. Court McGee (-215)
- Chase Sherman (+330) vs. Karl Williams (-410)
- Douglas Silva de Andrade (+135) vs. Cody Stamann (-155)
- Mandy Bohm (+195) vs. Ji Yeon Kim (-230)
- Bryan Battle (+115) vs. Gabe Green (-135)
- Jessica-Rose Clark (+100) vs. Tainara Lisboa (-120)
Picks in bold. Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rozenstruik vs. Almeida
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Almeida is a sizable favorite in this one, and it's easy to see why. For one, he has yet to lose under the UFC banner. He's 4-0 with the promotion and has finished all of his fights, including first-round finishes in the first three.
Second, Almeida's submission game gives him a distinct advantage in the grappling. When the fight is on the ground, he's a legitimate threat to add Rozenstruik to his growing list of tap-out victims.
He has to get the fight there first, though. That's where the intrigue starts.
Almeida is an aggressive takedown artist, averaging 6.7 per 15 minutes, according to UFC Stats. Rozenstruik is pretty good at keeping things upright, with a 75 percent takedown defense percentage.
Almeida has not seen a striker of Rozenstruik's caliber, and that's where the danger lies for him. If he can't find a way to get the fight to the mat early and often, then he could be in trouble.
Curtis Blaydes wasn't able to stop Rozenstruik, and that doesn't bode well for Almeida's chances.
Prediction: Almeida via decision
Smith vs. Walker
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It's pretty well established at this point that Anthony Smith is not going to contend for the 205-pound championship. He's earned opportunities to fight the best in the division, and he's struggled to cash in on them.
He's still a solid fighter and a great litmus test for those looking to break into the top five. It's why he's a great opponent for Johnny Walker as the Brazilian looks to prove that he's grown and developed.
Walker's career has been a rollercoaster since joining the UFC. He started with three straight knockout wins in the UFC, dispatching of Khalil Rountree Jr., Justin Ledet and Misha Cirkunov quickly and with style.
Then came back-to-back losses to Corey Anderson and Nikita Krylov. A win against Ryan Spann followed by two losses to Thiago Santos and Jamahal Hill left him with a 1-4 record in five fights.
That Hill loss doesn't look nearly as bad now that he's the champion. Back-to-back wins over Ion Cutelaba and Paul Craig have him going into this fight with some real momentum.
The problem for him is that Smith is a well-rounded and sound veteran. Cutelaba's caution-to-the-wind style and lack of defense make him susceptible to getting finished. Craig is an unconventional fighter with questionable striking.
Smith is a straightforward striker with a ton of experience. That's a tough draw for Walker.
Prediction: Smith via decision
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Rodriguez vs. Garry
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Ian Garry is a southpaw from Ireland with knockout power who made a name for himself in the Cage Warriors promotion based in England.
Sound familiar?
Garry is always going to draw some comparisons to Conor McGregor. It's a bit too much right now. The Irishman doesn't quite have that kind of drawing power yet, even compared to where McGregor was at this point in his career.
The skills are starting to draw attention, though. He's coming off a third-round TKO victory over Kenan Song on the UFC 285 undercard, extending his UFC record to 4-0.
Daniel Rodriguez is a definite step up in competition. He has wins over Mike Perry, Kevin Lee and Li Jingliang. Those are names that fans will actually recognize.
Rodriguez is a fun matchup for Garry. He's not going to be afraid to get in a firefight and will happily keep up a fast pace if that's what Garry wants to do.
This one should be back and forth. It's a more dangerous fight for Garry than the odds would indicate. That being said, he's still a good choice to ultimately find a home for a knockout blow eventually.
Prediction: Garry via third-round TKO
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