Predicting Top Fantasy Football Performers from 2023 NFL Draft Rookie Class
The 2023 NFL draft is complete, which means we know where the top fantasy football prospects will be playing next season. Now it's time to figure out who is set up for instant success and whose stock is hurt by their landing spot.
When it comes to fantasy football and projecting the value of rookies, talent is only half the battle. Context is important.
Whether it's a running back who landed in a clear timeshare situation or a talented wide receiver who got paired with a lackluster quarterback situation, landing spot can severely damage their value.
Alternatively, an ideal situation can prop up a prospect who might not be as talented.
Now that we have a nearly complete picture of the situation each rookie will be placed in, let's look at the top projected quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends from this class.
For this exercise, we will assume a points-per-reception (PPR) league redraft league, although we'll touch on some dynasty thoughts throughout the predictions.
Rookie QB1: Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
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Anthony Richardson has a lot of development to do. His prolonged delivery probably needs to be reworked, and he's going to have to break some bad habits he developed at Florida that led to some inefficiency as a passer.
He's far from a finished product and isn't as polished as Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud, but his athleticism, running ability and pairing with head coach Shane Steichen and the Indianapolis Colts puts him ahead of the curve from a fantasy perspective.
Steichen's crowning achievement as a coach so far is the work that he did with Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts.
Hurts broke out in the 2022-23 season with a campaign that removed all doubt he was the Eagles franchise quarterback and a fantasy superstar. But even in his first season as a starter in Philly, he finished as QB8 in fantasy football.
Now Steichen gets the opportunity to build an offense around one of the most unique athletes to play the position. The 6'4", 244-pound quarterback has the highest relative athletic score of any quarterback prospect since 1987, per Kent Lee Platte of Pro Football Network.
Richardson had 654 yards and nine touchdowns on the ground last season for Florida. His size will make him a running threat in short-yardage situations, and his rushing production should immediately carry him to fantasy relevance.
Teams will struggle to contain him as a runner when they also have to worry about Jonathan Taylor in the backfield as well.
In dynasty formats, Stroud and Young will compete with Richardson to be the top quarterback over the next few seasons. But in 2023 redraft leagues, it's Richardson.
Rookie QB2: Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
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This is a race for redraft leagues that will only matter in formats with two starting quarterbacks. Both C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young will primarily win as passers from the pocket, and they aren't in a position to put up big numbers as rookies.
Stroud will be playing for a defensive coach in DeMeco Ryans and offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, who comes from the 49ers coaching tree. That means the Houston Texans will likely build an offense that is complementary to the defense and run the football.
The Texans receivers don't necessarily inspire confidence. When Stroud does drop back, he'll be looking at Nico Collins, Robert Woods and John Metchie III as his top targets.
Young doesn't have the best setup, either. With D.J. Moore leaving in the trade that earned the Panthers the top pick, their receiving corps figures to be led by DJ Chark, what's left of Adam Thielen and newly acquired tight end Hayden Hurst.
If you consider the supporting cast a draw, it comes down to coaching. Even with a quarterback trio of Matt Ryan, Sam Ehlinger and Nick Foles last season, Reich's team was ninth in passing attempts per game.
Reich seems more likely to throw his rookie quarterback in the fire and let him carry a heavier offensive burden in Year 1. That gives Young the edge in 2023, even if it's a toss-up between the two in dynasty formats.
Rookie RB1: Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons
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Any time a franchise spends a top-10 pick on a running back, it's pretty clear they are committed to him.
When that back is as talented as Bijan Robinson, and the head coach was heavily involved in designing the Titans offense with Derrick Henry, he's an instant fantasy star.
From a real-life football perspective, you can argue about the merits of taking Robinson with the No. 8 pick in the draft. From a fantasy perspective, there's no debate. Robinson is worth a first-round selection in regular redraft formats, the first overall in rookie dynasty drafts and consideration for the top pick in startup dynasty drafts.
Fifth-round draft pick Tyler Allgeier and converted wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson combined for 1,730 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns with 37 receptions for 261 receiving yards.
It's safe to assume that Robinson will now get the lion's share of the carries. With Arthur Smith's experience as the offensive coordinator in Tennessee before becoming the Falcons head coach, he's going to know how to build an offense around Robinson.
It might not be the soundest team-building idea, but fantasy managers will thank him profusely all season.
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Rookie RB2: Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions
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Again, the draft capital alone is enough to get some Jahmyr Gibbs shares across your leagues. An NFL team has to like a running back prospect a whole lot to be willing to take them in the first half of the draft, especially in this day and age.
Gibbs may have been the second-highest-drafted running back in this class, but he's also the second-highest-drafted back over the last five drafts. The Lions took Gibbs with the 12th pick. That's higher than Najee Harris, Travis Etienne Jr., Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Josh Jacobs.
Those are the only other backs who have been taken in the first round.
Gibbs is especially exciting in PPR leagues. He caught 103 passes for 1,212 yards across two seasons at Georgia Tech and one with Alabama. That kind of receiving production should translate in the league.
With the Lions trading away D'Andre Swift during the draft, he should command the full workload of running back targets.
The only thing that will keep Gibbs from challenging Robinson for the No. 1 spot could be short yardage. Even with Swift gone, the Lions signed David Montgomery to a three-year, $18 million contract.
The 5'11" 222-pound back might be the preferred goal-line option over the 5'9", 199-pound Gibbs.
Rookie RB3: Devon Achane, Miami Dolphins
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Trying to figure out the third running back is where it gets interesting. As first-round picks, Robinson and Gibbs are all but guaranteed featured roles.
After that, the backfields get much more muddled.
Zach Charbonnet was the next back drafted. The Seahawks took him in the second round, but he will be sharing duties with Kenneth Walker III, who they drafted in the second round last season and rushed for 1,050 yards and nine scores in 2022.
Kendre Miller will likely have a nice role until Alvin Kamara comes back from a likely suspension. Kamara was indicted and pleaded not guilty to charges of conspiracy to commit battery and battery resulting in substantial bodily harm from an incident in February 2022.
But even with a potential Kamara suspension on the horizon, they signed Jamaal Williams this offseason.
That leaves Devon Achane as a good combination of talent (he was the fourth-ranked running back on the B/R big board), opportunity and scheme.
Achane was voted "best speed" by the B/R scouting department before being drafted by a team that clearly values speed. He has Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. to deal with, but Mostert is 31 years old, and Wilson's career-high for carries is 176.
Achane fits well in Mike McDaniel's offense and has a clearer path to playing time relative to the rest of the RBs from this class. His dynasty value might be hurt by a limited receiving role and an offense that will continue to focus on Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but he has one of the best situations for 2023.
Rookie WR1: Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings
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The Vikings made it pretty clear they were all-in on Jordan Addison. They made him the fourth wide receiver off the board with the 23rd pick, but he has the best path to a big role in his offense from the outset.
Adam Thielen left in free agency. K.J. Osborn hasn't really established himself as a high-end WR2.
Justin Jefferson attracts a whole lot of attention from opposing secondaries and Kirk Cousins is a good enough passer to support two fantasy-relevant receivers. With T.J. Hockenson joining the offense last season the Vikings are set up to have another receiver come in and take their passing attack to the next level.
Addison can be that receiver. At Pitt, Addison won the Biletnikoff Award as the nation's best receiver, with 100 receptions for 1,593 yards and 17 touchdowns as a 19-year-old. He followed that up with another successful season at USC.
The 5'11", 173-pound receiver is on the small side but was voted as the best route-runner in the class by the B/R scouting department. His ability to take advantage of one-on-one coverage to get open should come in handy.
With Jefferson and Hockenson occupying most defenses, the Vikings needed a guy who could win one-on-ones and make the passing attack more dynamic. Addison is going to have a big role from Week 1 on.
That being said, Addison's dynasty ceiling could be capped a bit. He's not going to overtake Jefferson as WR1 in Minnesota's offense, whereas Quentin Johnston could find himself as the Chargers' top option in two years.
Rookie WR2: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks
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Jaxon Smith-Njigba might be the most talented receiver in the class. He ranked second on B/R's big board, but the difference between his grade and No. 1-ranked Quentin Johnston was not much.
From a fantasy perspective, his landing spot wasn't perfect.
He could have been the No. 1 receiver for a team like the Green Bay Packers had he gone there. Instead, he will have to contend with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett for targets from Geno Smith.
Still, ESPN's Mike Clay projected that JSN would see 93 targets in the Seahawks offense this season. That would be enough for the talented receiver to make his mark, much like his fellow Ohio State receivers Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave did last season.
Fortunately for dynasty drafters, Smith-Njigba's long-term outlook is great in Seattle. Lockett turns 31 during the season and has an out in his contract after this season.
The Seahawks brass wouldn't have made him the first receiver off the board if they didn't intend to make him a big part of the offense.
Rookie WR3: Cedric Tillman, Cleveland Browns
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This is a bit of a sleeper pick here. Cedric Tillman was the 11th receiver off the board when the Cleveland Browns took him in the third round.
But George Pickens was the 11th receiver taken in last year's draft and ended up with 52 receptions for 801 yards and four touchdowns. By the end of the year, he was a relevant fantasy receiver and an integral part of the Steelers offense.
Pickens had the skills to supplant Chase Claypool as the Steelers' predominant downfield threat. He did a good enough job in that role that the team felt comfortable trading Claypool to the Chicago Bears.
There are a lot of parallels between Tillman and Pickens. They are both bigger receivers (Tillman is 6'3", 213 lbs, Pickens is 6'3", 200 lbs), and they both had their draft stock hampered by injuries. Pickens suffered an ACL tear that cost him most of his final season at Georgia. Tillman dealt with an ankle injury at Tennessee last season.
Tillman will have to contend with Donovan Peoples-Jones for the outside receiver spot across from Amari Cooper. Peoples-Jones saw 96 targets last season but had an inefficient 8.7 yards per target.
With Deshaun Watson getting his first full season in Cleveland, the passing game still has yet to be fully formed. Tillman will have an opportunity to contribute immediately and could become a sleeper if he supplants Peoples-Jones early.
Rookie TE1: TE Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions
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It's notoriously difficult for rookie tight ends to have an immediate impact. This year's batch of tight ends was more promising than usual. There were five tight ends taken in the second round after Dalton Kincaid became the first one off the board in Round 1.
As Mike Clay of ESPN noted, the highest target share for a rookie second-round tight end over the last decade was 13 percent (Pat Freiermuth). He still didn't finish as a top-12 tight end in fantasy.
So while there is a lot of talent in this group, and it should provide long-term answers for dynasty managers looking to address the position, it's best to temper expectations in Year 1.
That's true of Kincaid, who will likely play second fiddle to Dawson Knox and has limited upside in Buffalo. Michael Mayer has to contend with target dominator Davante Adams while Hunter Renfrow and Jakobi Meyers operate underneath zone coverage where Mayer figures to thrive.
The 6'3", 245-pound Sam LaPorta might have the best shot of producing in 2023. He has a clear path to a healthy target share, with the Lions trading away T.J. Hockenson during the 2022 season and Jameson Williams getting suspended for the first six games of the year for violating the league's gambling policy.
LaPorta has the ideal frame to serve as an off-ball tight end who can move around the formation and get open with the ability to gain yards after the catch.
That's a skill set the Lions need in their offense right now and could make him fantasy relevant in 2023.
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