2023 NFL Draft Late-Round Targets If Teams Miss on Household Names
NFL teams don't always want or get the chance to spend high-end draft assets on premium prospects. Sometimes, they decide to act like the rest of us and go bargain shopping.
The likes of Alabama's Will Anderson Jr. and Bryce Young, Ohio State's C.J. Stroud and Paris Johnson Jr., Notre Dame's Michael Mayer and Illinois' Devon Witherspoon can land in only one spot each. So the other organizations must look elsewhere.
While those mentioned will be hard to replicate, a few of the other highly regarded prospects may be less so. A franchise doesn't necessarily need to invest highly in someone when others can bring similar skill sets, athletic traits or scheme fits.
As an example, two of this past season's six finalists for the NFL Rookie of the Year award played cornerback. The New York Jets drafted Sauce Gardner with the fourth overall pick. Tariq Woolen didn't hear his named called until 149 selections later. The fifth-rounder wasn't even the first cornerback the Seattle Seahawks drafted that day.
Just because a prospect is considered a top talent doesn't mean a team's search ends once he's off the board. Quality prospects—some of whom ultimately turn out to be better professionals overall—can be found later in the draft.
If an organization does have its eye on a specific prospect and doesn't land him, it always has alternatives.
RB Bijan Robinson: Evan Hull
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Texas' Bijan Robinson is a special talent, hence why he's considered a top-five prospect in this year's class regardless of position.
What differentiates Robinson from everyone else is that he's highly skilled in both phases of the game. He should be viewed more as an offensive weapon than just a running back. He's going to affect games as a receiver, with the ability to run a full route tree and create as part of the passing attack.
Northwestern's Evan Hull led all FBS running backs with 55 receptions during the 2022 campaign. The Wildcats coaching staff made a concerted effort to get him more involved because of his explosivity and route-running skills. Over the last three seasons, Hull actually caught one more pass as the primary target on first downs than Robinson, per NFL Network's Ben Fennell.
Hull's not a shabby runner either, with 417 carries for 1,922 yards over the last two campaigns.
Athletically, the two backs are much closer than they initially appear. The 5'11', 215-pound Robinson and 5'10", 209-pound Hull are nearly the same size. Their testing numbers at the NFL Scouting Combine were almost identical. Robinson posted a 4.46-second 40-yard dash (1.52-second 10-yard split), 37-inch vertical and 10'4" broad jump, while Hull countered with a 4.47-second 40-yard dash (1.53-second 10-yard split), 37-inch vertical and 10'3" broad jump.
The reigning Doak Walker Award winner will ultimately end up somewhere in the first round. But the argument against a running back that early will persist if teams find contributing options later.
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Parker Washington
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A strong argument can be made in favor of Ohio State's Jaxon Smith-Njigba as this year's WR1 and its best slot receiver, though the latter serves as a possible concern depending on his usage at the next level.
While it's true this year's crop of targets isn't nearly as strong comparatively near the top of the class, Smith-Njigba showed his dominance during the 2021 campaign and tested well enough during the predraft cycle to ward off concerns about a lingering hamstring injury.
He did play almost exclusively from the slot, though.
Slot receiver is a starting position in today's game, and his alignment shouldn't be viewed as a negative. But others can also be effective while working inside the numbers, starting with Penn State's Parker Washington.
Washington led Big Ten wide receivers with a 94.2 grade on intermediate routes and 10 touchdowns from the slot since the start of the 2020 campaign, according to Pro Football Focus.
Obviously, Smith-Njigba's injury prevented him from posting better numbers. At the same time, Washington didn't benefit from top quarterback play, as OSU receivers did.
Both can play outside of the numbers and add to different areas of the offense.
"Definitely pride myself in doing that," Washington told reporters at the combine. "I feel like that's a big part of my game. I just want to be able to show that I can make plays anywhere. I could be outside, I could be in the slot and even put me in at running back at times."
But their calling card will be working from the slot.
OT Broderick Jones: Carter Warren
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While this year's offensive tackle class lacks a true top-10 standout, at least four names—Northwestern's Peter Skoronski (depending on where teams project him), Ohio State's Paris Johnson Jr., Georgia's Broderick Jones and Tennessee's Darnell Wright—are expected off the board in the first round.
Once the draft enters the second and third days, starting-caliber tackle prospects will be much harder to come by. Pittsburgh's Carter Warren is one of the few.
Of those aforementioned prospects, Warren is closest to Jones, at least when it comes to their body types. Their skill sets differ, but they're similar based on what an organization might be looking for at a premium position.
The Georgia product stands 6'5" and weighs 311 pounds. Warren is nearly identical at 6'5 ½" and 311 pounds. Their length is one of the biggest selling points. Jones has nearly 35-inch arms, while Warren's extend over 35 inches.
In fact, the Ohio State tandem of Johnson and Dawand Jones—both of whom could find themselves in the first round—were the only linemen at the combine with longer arms than Warren.
Jones is awesome to watch when pulling and working in space. Warren doesn't have as much pop as a run-blocker, though he does get good fits. But the movement skills match up in their pass sets. Both are fluid movers to reach their landmarks.
If an organization doesn't land a premium protector at the start of the process, Warren is an obvious target a little further down the board.
IOL O'Cyrus Torrence: Sidy Sow
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Teams searching for a road-grader, particularly a gap (man)-heavy scheme, likely have Florida's O'Cyrus Torrence as the top pure guard prospect among this year's draft class.
Torrence is a mauler with the size (6'5", 330 lbs) and play-strength to displace other grown men from the spot they want to be.
Currently, the consensus All-American is a fringe first-round prospect. Where Torrence ultimately falls depends on how teams slot and their preferred approach. At worst, he shouldn't last any longer than the early second round.
Similarly to Torrence, who began his career with the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns before transferring to Florida for one season, Eastern Michigan's Sidy Sow won't take the traditional route to the NFL.
The French Canadian didn't excel at a pipeline program during his collegiate career. Instead, Sow gained copious amounts of experience after entering the Eagles' lineup. He started 55 games after converting from defensive line during a redshirt freshman campaign.
A similar game to Torrence also appears when watching Sow. The sixth-year senior is powerful at the point of attack and excels in the run game. While their styles are similar, Sow is a better overall athlete than the SEC product.
Sow's lateral agility remains suspect, but the 6'5", 323-pound blocker became the 10th-most athletic guard prospect over the last 36 years, according to Pro Football Network's Kent Lee Platte.
"People think I'm overweight and kind of sloppy in some ways," Sow told reporters at the NFL Scouting Combine. "I played most of my career over 330 pounds. It just fools people."
DL Jalen Carter: Karl Brooks
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An argument can be made that Georgia's Jalen Carter is the most talented prospect in this year's draft class, regardless of position.
However, the predraft process hasn't been kind to Carter. Whether a team passes on him, missed the opportunity to select such a talent or just isn't comfortable with him as a prospect, this year's class has multiple 3-techniques capable of being disruptive performers.
The idea of another prospect outright outdoing Carter, a top-three talent, isn't something many would project, and they shouldn't.
Even so, Karl Brooks' transition to a full-time defensive tackle may make him a hidden gem. Essentially, Brooks played out of position as a defensive end for the Bowling Green Falcons.
He's not the most athletic edge, though he proved to be quite effective in the role with 30.5 tackles for loss and 17.5 sacks over the last two seasons. He's capable of excelling at multiple alignments but not explosive enough to do so off the edge against NFL offensive tackles.
Nonetheless, the first-team All-MAC defender can take his approach to pass-rushing off the edge and become a terror along the interior.
"I use my God-given abilities, my speed, and my twitchiness to my advantage," Brooks told The Draft Network's Justin Melo. "I react off of the offensive tackle. I feel like pass-rushing is just like boxing. If the tackle is going to throw his hands, I have to be ready to knock him down and get past him.
"Rushing the passer is an art at the end of the day. That's how I approach it. It's poetry in motion. Whatever the offensive tackle is giving me, I'm reacting and attacking."
Edge Nolan Smith: Byron Young
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Speed off the edge can be a nightmare for opposing offensive tackles. Two of the fastest edge defenders ever can be found among this year's incoming class.
Georgia's Nolan Smith and Tennessee's Byron Young posted 4.39- and 4.43-second 40-yard dashes at the NFL combine, respectively. Those efforts placed them second and fourth among edge-defenders since the league started to make the official numbers public.
At 250 pounds, Young is a little bigger than the 238-pound Smith. Yet the latter has slightly longer arms to ward off blockers.
The biggest difference at this point is that Smith is more polished, particularly against the run, whereas Young relies heavily on his natural athleticism and quickness.
"I feel like I have a few moves in my arsenal," Young told The Draft Network's Justin Melo. "I can always get better, though. I feel like I'm really good with the long-arm. I can convert speed to power. I can hit somebody with the ghost rush. Those are a few of the moves I like working with. My pass-rush arsenal is largely made up of those three moves."
Smith plays bigger than his size indicates, which is vital for a lighter edge-defender. He's got some pop, but he also brings wicked speed, fantastic bend and outstanding quickness and strength to defend the run game. Young isn't as far along after playing only two seasons in the SEC.
The potential in the latter is enormous, but he may be primarily limited to serving as a pass-rush specialist instead of an every-down defender.
CB Christian Gonzalez: Cory Trice Jr.
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If big, fast and physical is what a team wants in their next cornerback, there are plenty available that fit the mold in this year's draft class.
Oregon's Christian Gonzalez finds himself at or near the top of this year's class as a potential top-10 selection. But teams willing to wait can draft a bigger option that has the possibility of beating up wide receivers in press.
Gonzalez's biggest selling point is that he's extremely fluid for a cornerback of his size. The 6'1", 197-pound defensive back posted the 13th-best relative athletic score over the last 36 years, according to Pro Football Network's Kent Lee Platte.
While the higher-rated prospect is known for his fluidity as a bigger cover corner, Gonzalez never posted change-of-direction times prior to this year's draft. Without those numbers, his ability to change directions hasn't been fully answered.
Meanwhile, Purdue's Cory Trice Jr. posted elite metrics in the same categories.
The 6'3", 206-pound defensive back registered a 4.06-second short shuttle and 6.70-second three-cone effort at his pro day, which would have ranked second and third among cornerbacks at the NFL combine, respectively.
Gonzalez does have better top-end speed, and his four interceptions this past season ended up only one fewer than Trice snagged during his 30-game career at Purdue.
But teams that employ schemes that don't ask their corners to turn, run and stick with receives can do well with Trice in their system. The Academic All-Big Ten honoree can reroute his assignments off the line of scrimmage and use his length to shut down passing lanes.
S Brian Branch: Jartavius Martin
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This year's safety class is arguably the worst position group in the draft. Still, Alabama's Brian Branch is considered the top option and a possible first-round pick because of his versatility and reliability.
Branch's ability to play all over a defense, with an advanced understanding of and ample experience working over the slot, is his real superpower.
Today's game is based on matchups. Defenses prefer to include position-less players, who can excel at multiple spots to offset the need to substitute throughout a contest. Safeties such as Tyrann Mathieu, Derwin James Jr. and Minkah Fitzpatrick helped change how everyone looks at the position.
As soon as Branch is off the board, there is a significant drop.
However, a few names still pop up based on their skill sets. Illinois' Jartavius Martin is a prime example.
While former teammate Sydney Brown garnered more attention because of how many plays he made near the line of scrimmage and the turnovers he created, Martin's abilities allowed Brown to roam and make the plays he did.
Martin is a converted corner who doubles as a quality deep safety and slot option. Last season, the second-team All-Big Ten defensive back finished first among safeties in hand-on-ball percentage (2.2 percent) and second in percentage of snaps in the slot (64 percent), according to Sports Info Solutions (h/t Washington Post's Nicki Jhabvala).
Whose percentage was slightly higher when it came to covering the slot last season? Branch.
