Chiefs vs. Bengals: Updated Odds, Predictions for AFC Championship Game 2023

For the second time in as many years, the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals are set to collide in the AFC Championship.

Last time around, Joe Burrow and the Bengals got the better of Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. More specifically, Cincinnati's defense got to Mahomes, sacking him four times and intercepting him twice. That proved just enough for the Bengals to rally back from a 21-3 deficit and escape Kansas City with a 27-24 win—and the franchise's third-ever Super Bowl trip.

Will history repeat itself? Oddsmakers have a (slight) hunch. So do we.

After laying out the latest odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, we'll peer into this matchup's future and make a pair of predictions for how things will play out.

AFC Championship Game Schedule, Odds

Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images

ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK - JANUARY 22: Joe Burrow #9 of the Cincinnati Bengals looks to pass against the Buffalo Bills during the second half in the AFC Divisional Playoff game at Highmark Stadium on January 22, 2023 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images)

What: No. 3 Bengals at No. 1 Chiefs

When: Sunday, Jan. 29 at 6 p.m. ET

Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo.

Point spread: Chiefs -1

Moneyline: Chiefs -115; Bengals -105

Over/under: 48

Prediction: The Bengals Outgain the Chiefs

Cooper Neill/Getty Images

ORCHARD PARK, NY - JANUARY 22: Ja'Marr Chase #1 of the Cincinnati Bengals celebrates after a play against the Buffalo Bills during the first half at Highmark Stadium on January 22, 2023 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

The Chiefs outgained the entire NFL this season and were the league's lone squad to average better than 400 yards per game (413.6).

It's quite possible, though, they don't have the most dynamic offense in this matchup. That's triply true if Mahomes is at all hampered by the high-ankle sprain he suffered during the divisional round.

As great as Travis Kelce is, a healthy Ja'Marr Chase might be even harder to handle. JuJu Smith-Schuster had a solid first season in Kansas City, but it's debatable whether he's definitively better than Tee Higgins or Tyler Boyd—and there obviously is no debate when those two are working in tandem. Isiah Pacheco found his stride down the stretch, but Joe Mixon is the most well-rounded running back in this matchup.

When these teams tussled in December, Cincinnati tallied 431 yards to Kansas City's 349. And Mixon didn't even suit up. And Mahomes wasn't hampered by an ankle injury the way he is now.

The Chiefs offense can be electric, but look for the Bengals to again post more yardage.

Prediction: The Chiefs Win Anyway

Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

KANSAS CITY, MO - JANUARY 21: Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) and tight end Travis Kelce (87) are interviewed after an AFC divisional playoff game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Kansas City Chiefs on January 21, 2023 at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO. (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Back in December, Cincinnati turned that yardage advantage into a 27-24 triumph, giving it three consecutive wins against Kansas City.

That streak is about to snap.

The early reports on Mahomes' ankle sound very promising. If he's anywhere near 100 percent, Kansas City has enough to hold serve on its home field and exact some revenge for last year's loss in the conference final.

The Chiefs have enough high-end playmakers to win a scoring race with the Bengals, but the game doesn't need to play out that way. Kansas City can help keep the scoring in check with its defense.

The Chiefs finished 11th in yards allowed (328.2 per game) and second in sacks (55). They can exploit a banged-up Bengals offensive line by putting pressure on Burrow and closing the rushing lanes for Mixon. As long as Kansas City's defense keeps this close, Mahomes can do the rest.

Prediction: Chiefs 28, Bengals 24

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