NFL Playoff Probability Meter for Each NFL Division's Worst Team
If you want parity, look no further than the NFL, where multiple teams can rise from the basement of a division into the playoff spotlight over the course of one year.
Last season, the Baltimore Ravens, Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Giants and Seattle Seahawks finished fourth in their respective divisions and bounced back to clinch postseason berths in 2022.
Now, take a look at the worst teams in each division for the 2022 season. Who's going to make a leap forward for a playoff spot in 2023?
Based on the evaluation of rosters, coaching situations and the means to address the most pressing offseason questions, we came up with a playoff probability meter for the bottom squad in each division.
Here's the breakdown of the numeric scale:
1-3: Highly unlikely to make the playoffs
4-6: Improved but not a playoff team
7-10: Projected playoff team
AFC East: New York Jets
1 of 8
The New York Jets need one roster piece to make a playoff run in 2023, a reliable starting-caliber quarterback.
Up until the week of Thanksgiving, the Jets seemed primed to end their 11-year playoff drought, but they lost their last six games to finish 7-10. During that rough December-to-January stretch, the coaching staff benched quarterback Zach Wilson twice, clearly losing faith in him as the long-term solution at the position.
Unfortunately for Gang Green, its backup signal-callers floundered down the stretch as well. Mike White played through fractured ribs, and Joe Flacco looks close to retirement.
However, owner Woody Johnson told reporters that he's willing to spend on a quarterback this offseason. "That's the missing piece," he said.
Johnson's urgency is the right approach with a top-four scoring defense and a couple of playmakers in wideout Garrett Wilson and Sauce Gardner in the mix for Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year, respectively. By the way, the Jets' 2022 draft class won 10 out of 18 Rookie of the Week awards. Quinnen Williams and Gardner earned first-team All-Pro honors, while linebacker C.J. Mosley made the second team.
If running back Breece Hall (torn ACL) and versatile offensive lineman Alijah Vera-Tucker (triceps) bounce back from season-ending injuries, the Jets will have an abundance of talent on both sides of the ball to support a serviceable quarterback.
In an aggressive pursuit, New York could acquire quarterback Derek Carr, who's ready to move on from his career chapter with the Las Vegas Raiders, or attempt to sign Jimmy Garoppolo off the free-agent market. In a realistic scenario, the Jets can pair Carr with his former offensive coordinator Greg Olson.
As long-shot quarterback options, Lamar Jackson could become available via trade with the Baltimore Ravens if negotiations between the two sides go sour, and the Green Bay Packers might be willing to deal Aaron Rodgers, per ESPN's Adam Schefter.
If the Jets significantly upgrade at quarterback, they can leap over the New England Patriots (8-9) and Miami Dolphins (9-8), two teams that hovered around .500 in 2022. The Dolphins may regress if quarterback Tua Tagovailoa continues to struggle with injuries.
Playoff Probability Meter: 9
AFC North: Cleveland Browns
2 of 8
In Week 13, Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson took his first regular-season snap in nearly two years. While with the Houston Texans, he was inactive for a whole season while the subject of multiple police investigations into allegations of sexual assault or misconduct. Twenty-five women also filed lawsuits against Watson containing similar allegations, although one was dropped.
The Browns acquired him last March after it was announced no charges would be filed, and he served an 11-game suspension for violating the league's personal conduct policy. The majority of the lawsuits have been settled.
In Watson's return to the field, he struggled with a lot of rust, throwing for two touchdowns and three interceptions in his first four games. He fared a lot better in his last two appearances, tossing five touchdown passes and two interceptions.
The three-time Pro Bowler may rediscover his form with a full offseason in Cleveland. Even if he performs slightly below that level, the Browns have a quality supporting cast, including a starting offensive line that will mostly remain intact and a couple of four-time Pro Bowlers in wideout Amari Cooper and running back Nick Chubb.
On the other side of the ball, the Browns may field a better defense with a new coordinator, Jim Schwartz, set to join the staff. In three out of his five years with the Philadelphia Eagles (2016-20), he had a top-12 scoring unit.
While the Browns should improve in 2023, they play in the toughest AFC division. In 2022, the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens made the playoffs, and the Pittsburgh Steelers finished 9-8. With that said, if Lamar Jackson stays in Baltimore, he could have growing pains under a new offensive coordinator, and Watson is a more established quarterback than Kenny Pickett in Pittsburgh.
Playoff probability meter: 7
AFC South: Houston Texans
3 of 8
The Houston Texans will hire a new head coach for the third consecutive offseason, which isn't a great way to build chemistry in the locker room or a foundation for the franchise. Usually, a new lead skipper comes with philosophical, roster and coaching personnel changes. So, first and foremost, Houston has to establish a culture.
Yes, the Jacksonville Jaguars went from worst to first in the AFC South, but they have second-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who came out of Clemson as a highly regarded prospect and went No. 1 overall in the 2021 draft. Also, the Jaguars hired a Super Bowl-winning head coach in Doug Pederson.
Unless the Texans hire Sean Payton to fill their head-coaching vacancy, they won't have a lead skipper with a resume that's comparable to Pederson's. Moreover, with the No. 2 overall pick, Houston may not get the top signal-caller in the 2023 draft because another quarterback-needy team can acquire the No. 1 selection from the Chicago Bears in a trade.
In all likelihood, the Texans will have a slow rebuild. And likely adding to their talent issues, star wideout Brandin Cooks would want no part of that, per Jonathan M. Alexander of the Houston Chronicle.
On top of leadership position vacancies and a big question mark at wide receiver, the Texans must bolster their pass rush after the defense finished 20th in pressure rate for the 2022 term.
Last offseason, Houston added a couple of promising rookies in safety Jalen Pitre and running back Dameon Pierce, but the club doesn't have a strong core because of recent turnover. The Texans will require a lot of work (and some consistency) before they're able to sniff the playoffs.
Playoff Probability Meter: 1
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AFC West: Denver Broncos
4 of 8
The Denver Broncos' playoff hopes will depend on who the front office hires to work with quarterback Russell Wilson, who's coming off an abysmal season that saw him throw 16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions with a 60.5 percent completion rate.
In 2022, Denver's defense held 10 out of 17 opponents to 19 points or fewer, but its offense scored the fewest points. The Broncos gave up two first-round picks, two second-round selections, a fifth-rounder, quarterback Drew Lock, defensive lineman Shelby Harris and tight end Noah Fant for Wilson and a fourth-rounder, and they then signed him to a five-year extension worth $245 million. He's not going anywhere.
With that said, Wilson needs a top-notch coach to help him find his Pro Bowl form, or else the Broncos will remain in the AFC West cellar.
Fortunately for Wilson, the Broncos have lined up a second interview with Sean Payton, per Jeff Duncan of NOLA.com. If Denver hires the Super Bowl-winning head coach, the Kansas City Chiefs may have serious competition for the AFC West crown.
In the event that the Broncos strike out with Payton, they can hire a quality head coach in Dan Quinn, who interviewed for the position last week. As a lead skipper, he has a 43-42 record from his six-year tenure with the Atlanta Falcons. Quinn is also familiar with Wilson from their shared time with the Seattle Seahawks between 2013 and 2014, when Quinn was the team's defensive coordinator.
Though Quinn oversees defensive units, he has an eye for offensive-minded coaches.
In Atlanta, Quinn had Kyle Shanahan (offensive coordinator), Matt LaFleur (quarterbacks coach) and Mike McDaniel (offensive assistant) on his staff and made a run to the Super Bowl with the No. 1 scoring offense in the 2016 campaign.
Payton and Quinn should rank atop the Broncos' head-coaching candidates list. If they hire either of the two, Wilson could trend in the right direction, which would bode well for Denver's 2023 postseason hopes.
Playoff Probability Meter: 7
NFC East: Washington Commanders
5 of 8
In arguably the league's best division, the Washington Commanders have a major problem. In 2022, all three of their division rivals made the playoffs, and the Commanders are in desperate need of a solution at quarterback.
The Commanders fired offensive coordinator Scott Turner, and CBS Sports' Jonathan Jones reported they've told play-callers who have interviewed for the position that rookie quarterback Sam Howell will "likely" start in 2023.
The Commanders started Howell in their 2022 season finale—a 26-6 win over the Dallas Cowboys. He went 11-of-19 passing for 169 yards, a touchdown and an interception and rushed for 35 yards and a score.
While Howell posted a decent stat line, he hasn't done nearly enough to garner confidence that the Commanders can win nine or 10 contests with him. With only one game under his belt, the 2022 fifth-rounder will go through more growing pains if he wins the starting job next summer.
Based on Jones' report, the Commanders seem unlikely to make any aggressive moves to sign a big-name veteran quarterback or trade up for a top prospect. Perhaps they saw something in Howell's development before he took the field in Week 18. Even so, Washington would be taking a huge gamble with an inexperienced signal-caller in a division of playoff contenders.
Though the Commanders have a top-seven defense in points and yards allowed, they're more likely to bottom out with Howell in the pole position to start under center.
Playoff Probability Meter: 1
NFC North: Chicago Bears
6 of 8
The Chicago Bears have the resources to follow the Jacksonville Jaguars' 2022 roster-building blueprint.
General manager Ryan Poles has $92 million in cap space and the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 draft at his disposal. He could take a game-changing talent in edge-rusher Will Anderson Jr., who can bolster a defense that gave up the most points in 2022, or trade the pick to accumulate draft capital in an attempt to fill more roster holes. Either way, the Bears should have immediate help on the way in the coming months.
Last offseason, the Jaguars splurged on the free-agent market, and it paid off. Most of their veteran acquisitions made notable contributions in starting or key rotational roles on both sides of the ball. The Bears can reap similar results if they spend wisely.
As Jacksonville did for Trevor Lawrence with the addition of Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Evan Engram, Chicago should invest in playmakers to aid Justin Fields' development. Perhaps Poles makes an offer for Arizona Cardinals wideout DeAndre Hopkins, who Jordan Schultz of The Score has reported is a potential trade candidate.
Though Fields gashed defenses on the ground, rushing for 1,143 yards and eight touchdowns, the Bears cannot expect him to sustain that style of play. Chicago needs to upgrade his pass protection, specifically at center and right tackle.
The Bears have a lot of work to do on both sides of the ball, but they're rich in cap space, and they can load up on top-tier prospects from the draft.
Chicago also doesn't have a juggernaut squad in its division. The Minnesota Vikings made the lone 2022 playoff appearance for the NFC North, and they bowed out on Wild Card Weekend with a subpar defense that needs a makeover and a new coordinator.
The Bears can rack up several wins if they infuse the roster with veteran and rookie talent ready to contribute right away.
Playoff Probability Meter: 4
NFC South: Atlanta Falcons
7 of 8
Unlike most of these last-place teams, the Atlanta Falcons have an offensive identity. Under head coach Arthur Smith, they've become a run-heavy squad that can also take advantage of perimeter matchups with big targets.
In 2022, Atlanta finished third in rushing with four ball-carriers who registered at least 366 yards on the ground. Among that group, Tyler Allgeier, Cordarrelle Patterson and Caleb Huntley remain under contract in 2023. Quarterback Marcus Mariota will become a free agent, but the Falcons benched him for rookie third-rounder Desmond Ridder following their Week 14 bye.
Between Weeks 15 and 18, Ridder built a rapport with wideout Drake London (6'4", 213 lbs), who caught 25 passes for 333 yards in that four-game stretch.
Even without tight end Kyle Pitts (6'6", 246 lbs), whom the team placed on injured reserve after Week 11, Ridder provided a spark to the Falcons passing attack.
As the potential starter for Week 1 in 2023, Ridder could benefit from a full offseason of growth with Pitts and London. The Falcons have the second-most cap space with a projected $56.6 million. They can invest a lot in their defense, which ranked 23rd in scoring and gave up the sixth-most yards in 2022.
If quarterback Tom Brady leaves Tampa Bay, as Buccaneers players expect him to do (h/t NFL Network's Ian Rapoport), the NFC South would become a wide-open division. Remember, none of the four teams finished with a winning record in 2022.
With improvements on defense, an effective ground attack and Ridder becoming more comfortable with his playmakers, the Falcons could take advantage of a division without a middle-to-high-end starting quarterback. Though we'll see how the New Orleans Saints, Carolina Panthers and Buccaneers address the most important position; if one of those teams acquires Derek Carr, Atlanta may miss the playoff cut again.
Playoff Probability Meter: 6
NFC West: Arizona Cardinals
8 of 8
The Arizona Cardinals have a talented quarterback in Kyler Murray, but they have to answer several questions that will impact his performance once he's back from a torn ACL.
First, new Cardinals general manager Monti Ossenfort has to hire a head coach to replace Kliff Kingsbury. According to owner Michael Bidwill, Murray will have some influence on that decision.
As for the roster, the Cardinals have pressing questions at wide receiver and across the offensive line.
According to Jordan Schultz of The Score, the team plans to trade DeAndre Hopkins. Marquise Brown, who has a close working relationship with Murray, may want a new deal as he heads into the final year of his rookie contract. He led the Cardinals in catches (67) and had 709 receiving yards and three touchdowns in 2022.
Center Rodney Hudson may retire, while right tackle Kelvin Beachum and versatile offensive lineman Justin Pugh have expiring contracts. Though Hudson and Pugh only played in nine games combined in 2022, the Cardinals would need some depth in the trenches if they don't re-sign the veteran offensive linemen.
Before the Cardinals fired Kingsbury, he said that Murray will "probably" miss the start of the 2023 campaign. Arizona can roll with Colt McCoy, who turns 37 years old in September, or sign a veteran to fill in for its dynamic signal-caller. Either way, the new coaching staff faces a suboptimal situation on offense with Murray on the mend.
Arizona could struggle through the first month of the season, and Murray may not be able to make defenders miss on foot in his first few games back from a serious knee injury.
Assuming the Los Angeles Rams bounce back from an injury-riddled 2022 campaign with quarterback Matthew Stafford, wideout Cooper Kupp and defensive tackle Aaron Donald healthy, the Cardinals have a tough path to the playoffs in a difficult division. The San Francisco 49ers remain in contention for a Super Bowl with quarterback Brock Purdy, and the Seattle Seahawks will look to load up a playoff roster with two top-20 draft picks.
Playoff Probability Meter: 2
Maurice Moton covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @MoeMoton.
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