NFL Playoff Picture 2023: AFC, NFC Wild-Card Scenarios and Week 18 Predictions

An AFC South champion will be crowned Saturday night. And either the Tennessee Titans or the Jacksonville Jaguars will be heading to the NFL playoffs as the No. 4 seed in the AFC.

For the Titans, it's a must-win game if they hope to extend their season. If they lose in Jacksonville, their season will be over. The stakes are also high for the Jags, who could only reach the postseason with a loss if the New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins and Pittsburgh Steelers all lose Sunday, which would then make Jacksonville the No. 7 seed.

That's not the only game taking place Saturday. Before that, the Kansas City Chiefs will have an opportunity to secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC if they can beat AFC West rivals Las Vegas Raiders on the road.

Here's a look at the playoff picture and the clinching scenarios for Week 18, along with predictions for how the weekend's action will unfold.

NFL Playoff Picture

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MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA - NOVEMBER 27: A detailed view of the NFL logo on a Wilson football prior to a game between the Houston Texans and Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium on November 27, 2022 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)

AFC

Bye: No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs (13-3, clinched AFC West)

No. 2 Buffalo Bills (12-3, clinched AFC East) vs. No. 7 New England Patriots (8-8)

No. 3 Cincinnati Bengals (11-4, clinched AFC North) vs. No. 6 Baltimore Ravens (10-6, clinched playoff berth)

No. 4 Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8) vs. No. 5 Los Angeles Chargers (10-6, clinched playoff berth)

In the hunt: Miami Dolphins (8-8), Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8), Tennessee Titans (7-9)

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NFC

Bye: No. 1 Philadelphia Eagles (13-3, clinched playoff berth)

No. 2 San Francisco 49ers (12-4, clinched NFC West) vs. No. 7 Seattle Seahawks (8-8)

No. 3 Minnesota Vikings (12-4, clinched NFC North) vs. No. 6 New York Giants (9-6-1, clinched playoff berth)

No. 4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8, clinched NFC South) vs. No. 5 Dallas Cowboys (12-4, clinched playoff berth)

In the hunt: Detroit Lions (8-8), Green Bay Packers (8-8)

AFC Clinching Scenarios, Predictions

AP Photo/John Raoux

Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson, left, celebrates with Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) after defeating the Dallas Cowboys in overtime in an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 18, 2022, in Jacksonville, Fla. (AP Photo/John Raoux)

The Chiefs will secure the No. 1 seed with either a win over the Raiders on Saturday or a Bills loss to the Patriots on Sunday. The only way Buffalo can end up in the top spot is with a win and a Kansas City loss.

However, there's the possibility that the AFC Championship Game will be played at a neutral site, as the Bills and Bengals will have played one fewer game than the other teams due to the cancellation of their Week 17 matchup. That will only happen if two of those three teams reach the conference title game after certain things unfold in Week 18.

The No. 4 seed will go to the AFC South champion, which will be the winner of Saturday's Titans-Jaguars game. If Jacksonville loses, it will wait to see if it can still get into the playoffs with losses by New England, Miami and Pittsburgh on Sunday.

The Patriots can clinch the No. 7 seed with a road win over the Bills. If they lose, a Dolphins home win over the Jets would secure the final wild-card spot for Miami. If the Pats and Dolphins both lose, then a Steelers home win over the Browns would give that berth to Pittsburgh.

If the Jaguars win and each of those three teams lose, then New England would still end up as the No. 7 seed, as it would own the tiebreaker over Miami and Pittsburgh.

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Predictions

1. Kansas City

2. Buffalo

3. Cincinnati

4. Jacksonville

5. Los Angeles

6. Baltimore

7. Miami

The Chiefs should have no trouble securing the No. 1 seed. They've won nine of their past 10 games and previously defeated the Raiders in Week 5. Kansas City should cruise to victory in Las Vegas.

It should also be fairly easy for the Jaguars to beat the Titans and win the AFC South title. Jacksonville has won six of its past eight games, while Tennessee has lost six in a row and will again be starting Joshua Dobbs at quarterback with Ryan Tannehill out following ankle surgery.

The Patriots have a challenging road matchup against the Bills, and Buffalo is likely to win. That will allow the Dolphins to get into the playoffs for the first time since the 2016 season.

Miami may be starting rookie quarterback Skylar Thompson, but New York has been eliminated from playoff contention and will have Joe Flacco at QB. The Dolphins have enough talent on both sides of the ball to support Thompson and end their five-game losing streak with a victory in a must-win game.

NFC Clinching Scenarios, Predictions

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GREEN BAY, WISCONSIN - JANUARY 01: Jaire Alexander #23 of the Green Bay Packers reacts after a play during the first quarter Minnesota Vikings at Lambeau Field on January 01, 2023 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

The Eagles can clinch the NFC East title and the No. 1 seed in the conference with a home win over the Giants. If they lose, they'll still be the division champion if the Cowboys lose to the Commanders on the road, and they would also still be the top seed if the 49ers lose to the Cardinals at home.

It's unlikely that either San Francisco or Dallas is going to lose to an eliminated team. So Philadelphia probably has to win or else it has a high chance of falling to the No. 5 seed.

The 49ers and Cowboys can only move up if the Eagles lose. But San Francisco could drop to the No. 3 seed if it loses and Minnesota wins on the road against Chicago, which would move the Vikings up to No. 2.

The Seahawks, Lions and Packers are the three teams battling for the No. 7 seed. But only Green Bay controls its own destiny, as it can clinch that wild-card berth with a home victory over Detroit on Sunday night.

Seattle needs to beat the Rams, then have Green Bay lose to Detroit. The Lions can only get in if the Seahawks lose and then they beat the Packers.

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Predictions

1. Philadelphia

2. San Francisco

3. Minnesota

4. Tampa Bay

5. Dallas

6. New York

7. Green Bay

After missing the past two games because of a right shoulder strain, quarterback Jalen Hurts could return for the Eagles on Sunday. Whether it's him or Gardner Minshew under center, Philadelphia should end its two-game losing streak against New York, which is locked in to the No. 6 seed.

With the Eagles winning, the 49ers will stay at No. 2 when they beat the Cardinals. And even though the Cowboys should defeat the Commanders, they'll remain at No. 5 and have to go on the road to face the Buccaneers in the wild-card round.

It won't matter whether the Seahawks win or not, as the Packers will punch their ticket to the postseason with a win over the Lions. Green Bay, which will be heading to the playoffs for the fourth straight year, will avenge its Week 9 loss in Detroit as quarterback Aaron Rodgers will power it to victory.