Early Predictions for the 2023 NFL Quarterback Carousel
In the NFL offseason, the quarterback carousel draws a lot of buzz, especially when big names have an opportunity to sign with new teams. We could see a seven-time Super Bowl champion, an All-Pro, Pro Bowlers and a former No. 1 overall pick on the move in 2023. On top of that, a team may trade a high-profile signal-caller who's ready for a change of scenery.
Before the rumor mill heats up, we can have some fun with a game of matchmaker. Where is the best destination for the top eight quarterbacks potentially available via free agency or trade?
If we consider system and organizational fits, at least one team stands out as an ideal landing spot for each quarterback. While some signal-callers will have more options than others, the eight passers listed below should have a market for their services.
Now, let's match the quarterback with an appropriate suitor.
Tom Brady Signs with the Raiders
1 of 8
As the Las Vegas Raiders go all-in with two former New England Patriots in the general manager and head-coaching positions, owner Mark Davis would probably approve if front-office executive Dave Ziegler and lead skipper Josh McDaniels pursue Tom Brady in the offseason.
In a couple of months, Brady can become a free agent; the Tampa Bay Buccaneers cannot use the franchise or transition tag on him.
Brady may want to explore his options in March coming off a statistically down year with the playoff-bound Buccaneers, who have an underwhelming 8-8 record. Barring a successful Super Bowl run, he could play another year before going out on a higher note.
According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport and Tom Pelissero, Brady will consider "all options" in free agency.
Suppose you believe UFC president Dana White's story that he nearly brokered a deal between Vegas and Brady during the 2020 offseason before former Raiders head coach Jon Gruden nixed the plan. In that case, this quarterback-team pairing doesn't seem far-fetched.
Even if you're skeptical of White's account of how things went down, Rapoport told The Complex Sports Podcast the Silver and Black landed on Brady's radar as a free-agent destination three years ago.
The Raiders have blown an NFL single-season-record five double-digit second-half leads this season (h/t Elias Sports Bureau), so McDaniels will likely feel the pressure to win right away in 2023. With the team appearing set to open trade talks for quarterback Derek Carr, McDaniels may aggressively court Brady to help cool the temperature on his own seat.
When you include McDaniels' years as a quarterbacks coach, he's worked directly with Brady for 13 seasons in New England.
Even at 45 years old, turning 46 in August, Brady, who hasn't missed the playoffs as a full-time starter since 2002, can draw quality free agents to join him in Vegas. The seven-time Super Bowl champion would already have a high-end pass-catching group with Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller in the fold. If the front office re-signs Josh Jacobs, who currently leads the league in rushing, the Silver and Black could field a potent offense.
Raiders Trade Derek Carr to the Buccaneers
2 of 8
The Las Vegas Raiders tipped their hand on offseason plans when they benched Derek Carr last week. The ninth-year signal-caller would've locked in $40.4 million in guarantees for the next two years if he sustained an injury. According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, they're expected to explore trade offers for him in the coming weeks.
On NFL Network, David Carr said that his younger brother wants to play for a team that has a "stable situation between their head coach and their ownership." Remember, Carr has a no-trade clause.
If that's what Carr wants, he should consider the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They've had general manager Jason Licht in place for nine years. Before Todd Bowles accepted the head-coaching position this past season, he served as the team's defensive coordinator for three terms. With the Buccaneers in the playoffs, Licht and Bowles could remain with the club regardless of Brady's plans.
On top of the stability in the front office and within the coaching ranks, the Buccaneers have two Pro Bowl wide receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin under contract. When healthy, they have a quality offensive line with left tackle Donovan Smith, center Ryan Jensen, right guard Shaq Mason and right tackle Tristan Wirfs as clear-cut starters.
Also, Tampa Bay has fielded a top-10 defense in yards and points allowed this season, which is something Carr hasn't had once in his nine years with the Raiders.
In the event that Brady walks away in free agency or if the Buccaneers prefer to move on with a younger quarterback, they can send an offer that includes a second-round pick (or a first-rounder if desperate) to acquire Carr, who would become the best projected starting quarterback in the NFC South for the 2023 season.
Sam Darnold Signs with the Colts
3 of 8
Quietly, Sam Darnold had a decent five-game stretch while the Carolina Panthers pushed the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the NFC South title.
Even though the Panthers came up short against the Buccaneers in Week 17 and fell out of playoff contention, Darnold has done enough to draw intrigue on the free-agent market. In five starts, he has thrown for seven touchdowns and an interception with a 61.6 percent completion rate. It's become apparent over this span that teams can minimize his turnover-prone style with a viable ground attack.
A year ago, the Indianapolis Colts fielded the No. 2 ground attack featuring 2021 rushing champion Jonathan Taylor.
This season, Taylor battled toe and ankle issues, but the Colts still have the pieces to play a physical style that's similar to what we saw with the Panthers, who leaned heavily on running backs D'Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard.
Along the offensive line, Indianapolis has quality starters in All-Pro left guard Quenton Nelson, center Ryan Kelly and right tackle Braden Smith under contract for multiple years. Though Colts quarterbacks took 58 sacks this season, rookie tackle Bernhard Raimann gave up seven, per Pro Football Focus, and could make second-year strides to strengthen the team's pass protection. Plus, a more mobile quarterback like Darnold can minimize some of those issues.
Darnold would also have a No. 1 wideout in Michael Pittman Jr., and perhaps the Colts add another ball-carrier to lighten Taylor's load on the ground for a more reliable run game.
Indianapolis can set up a stopgap-rookie quarterback situation with Darnold and its first-round pick, which is currently fifth overall in the 2023 draft order. He can showcase himself for several weeks to a year, and the Colts wouldn't have to rush their rookie signal-caller into action.
.jpg?w=256 "Falcons Vikings Football")
.jpg?w=256 "49ers Cardinals Football")
Jimmy Garoppolo Inks Deal with the Jets
4 of 8
This move fits like a glove for Jimmy Garoppolo and the New York Jets.
Between 2017 and 2020, Garoppolo played under Jets offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur, who served as the San Francisco 49ers passing game coordinator and wide receivers coach in that stretch. Furthermore, Gang Green and the 49ers share roster similarities that would allow Garoppolo to flourish in New York if he can stay healthy.
Like San Francisco, New York has a top-five defense in yards and points allowed. Both teams can lean heavily on the run game. Since he became the 49ers head coach, Kyle Shanahan has produced an effective ground game with multiple tailbacks and Deebo Samuel. Assuming rookie running back Breece Hall makes a full recovery from a torn ACL, the Jets can do the same for years to come. The first-year ball-carrier had an impressive campaign before he went down, rushing for a team-leading 463 yards and four touchdowns at 5.8 yards per carry in seven outings.
Garoppolo would have a pair of young wide receivers in Elijah Moore and Garrett Wilson, who have flashed even with instability and subpar play at the quarterback position. The latter leads all rookie receivers in yards (1,014).
As the former defensive coordinator for the 49ers, Jets head coach Robert Saleh knows Garoppolo's strengths and weaknesses. He can help LaFleur accentuate the positives and minimize the negatives in the 31-year-old signal-caller's game.
Ravens Franchise-Tag Lamar Jackson, Sign Him to Long-Term Deal
5 of 8
Lamar Jackson will probably have a complicated contract-signing process, regardless of the suitor.
For starters, Jackson rejected a six-year offer worth about $250 million with $133 million in guarantees from the Baltimore Ravens last offseason, per ESPN's Adam Schefter and Chris Mortensen. He's also acted as his own agent with the help of his mother and the NFL Players Association.
Yet Jackson seems likely to remain with the Ravens for at least the 2023 season. Baltimore can franchise-tag him at an amount determined by the new salary cap and then work on a long-term deal through July 15, the deadline to sign players with the one-year tender.
When you include the fact that Jackson helped turn Baltimore's 2018 season around with a 6-1 record as a starter, he's a major reason why the Ravens have clinched a playoff berth in four of the last five years. The soon-to-be 26-year-old also has a 2019 MVP campaign on his resume.
General manager Eric DeCosta understands that if he pivots away from Jackson, the Ravens may fall out of playoff contention. While the front office and Jackson may wrestle with contract numbers for months because the quarterback wants a fully guaranteed deal, the two sides could come to an agreement at some point in the summer.
Daniel Jones Re-Signs with the Giants
6 of 8
Head coach Brian Daboll and offensive coordinator Mike Kafka have likely extended Daniel Jones' tenure with the New York Giants. According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, Big Blue wants to retain the fourth-year quarterback for the 2023 season and beyond.
Last offseason, the Giants didn't pick up Jones' fifth-year option after he threw for 21 touchdowns and 17 interceptions between 2020 and 2021. This season, the dual-threat signal-caller has thrown for a career-high 3,205 yards, 15 touchdowns and five interceptions with career-high rushing numbers (708 yards and seven scores).
Though the Giants' new coaching staff has featured Jones' ball-carrying ability, The Athletic's Dan Duggan noted that he's also thrown with adequate precision as of late.
As a contributor to the Giants' fourth-ranked ground attack on a playoff-bound squad, Jones probably sticks around beyond the 2022 term. New York should be able to sign him on a short-term contract, which will allow him to build on his best season. With a revamped wide receiver room, Jones may continue to ascend in the early stages of his development.
Baker Mayfield Signs with the Commanders
7 of 8
In December, the Los Angeles Rams claimed Baker Mayfield off waivers, and he's played well under head coach Sean McVay even without injured wideouts Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson II.
In four games (three starts) with the Rams, Mayfield has thrown four touchdowns and one interception with a 67 percent completion rate, which is much better than his passing numbers in seven contests (six starts) with the Carolina Panthers (six touchdown passes and six interceptions with a 57.8 percent completion rate).
McVay has shown that Mayfield can be a serviceable starter with good coaching. As a former No. 1 overall pick, he'll likely get another shot at a lead job in 2023. The Rams have quarterback Matthew Stafford under contract through the 2026 term, and he led them to a Super Bowl victory last year, so Mayfield isn't going to replace him.
As a free agent, Mayfield should look for a destination where he could start with quality playmakers around him, and the Washington Commanders fit the description.
In Washington, Mayfield would have a solid wide receiver trio that features Pro Bowler Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson, who's tied with the Green Bay Packers' Christian Watson to lead all rookie wideouts in touchdown receptions (seven).
Remember, Mayfield led the Cleveland Browns to the 2020 playoffs with the help of a strong run game that ranked third in yards. The Commanders have a solid running back duo in Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson and have racked up 128-plus yards on the ground in 10 out of 16 games this season.
Seahawks Franchise-Tag Geno Smith
8 of 8
Geno Smith projects as an exemplary franchise-tag candidate. After a couple of rough seasons with the New York Jets between 2013 and 2014 in which he threw 28 touchdowns and 36 interceptions, he started in just five games before the 2022 campaign.
This season, his second year with the Seattle Seahawks, he has far exceeded expectations, throwing 29 touchdowns and nine interceptions with a league-leading 70.2 percent completion rate. The 32-year-old earned a spot on the 2022 Pro Bowl roster and still has a chance to lead the Seahawks to a playoff berth if Seattle wins and the Green Bay Packers lose to the Detroit Lions in Week 18.
Did Smith find the right coaching staff to elevate his career, or is he due for regression after one standout season?
The Seahawks should wait until Smith shows year-to-year consistency before they commit to him on a long-term deal. If they do, the front office can use the franchise tag on him for the 2023 campaign and revisit talks about a multiyear contract in 2024.
Seattle can select a quarterback in the 2023 draft to further hedge its bet on Smith. Even if the front office takes that approach, the veteran signal-caller can serve as a stopgap before the rookie takes over under center.
Player contract details are provided by Over the Cap.
NFL draft order courtesy of Tankathon.
Maurice Moton covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @MoeMoton.
.jpg?w=480 "Falcons Vikings Football")
.jpg?w=480 "49ers Cardinals Football")
.jpg?w=600 "SmackDown Before WrestleMania 🔠")
