UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira Odds, Predictions and Pre-Weigh-In Hype
Israel Adesanya puts his UFC middleweight championship up against an old rival in Alex Pereira at UFC 281 on Saturday.
The Last Stylebender has risen to the top of UFC stardom in the middleweight division thanks to his elite striking. Now, he'll face someone who has proved to be his superior in the kickboxing arena.
Whether that will translate to mixed martial arts is one of the most intriguing questions in the division right now, and it will be answered at Madison Square Garden on Saturday night.
The card is one of the deepest of the year, too. The co-main event features a championship bout between Carla Esparza and Zhang Weili. A huge lightweight fight between Dustin Poirier and Michael Chandler serves as the lead-in.
Here's a look at the complete card along with some of the latest buzz before weigh-ins.
UFC 281 Fight Card, Schedule and Odds
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Main Card (ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET)
- Israel Adesanya (c) (-205) vs. Alex Pereira (+175): middleweight championship
- Carla Esparza (c) (+280) vs. Zhang Weili (-340): women's strawweight championship
- Dustin Poirier (-210) vs. Michael Chandler (+180)
- Frankie Edgar (+185) vs. Chris Gutierrez (-215)
- Dan Hooker (-145) vs. Claudio Puelles (+125)
Prelims (ESPNews at 8 p.m. ET)
- Brad Riddell (+100) vs. Renato Moicano (-120)
- Dominick Reyes (-205) vs. Ryan Spann (+175)
- Erin Blachfield (-390) vs. Molly McCann (+320)
- Andre Petroski (-195) vs. Wellington Turman (+165)
Early Prelims (UFC Fight Pass at 6 p.m. ET)
- Matt Frevola (+105) vs. Ottman Azaitar (-125)
- Karolina Kowalkiewicz (-110) vs. Silvana Gomez Juarez (-110)
- Michael Trizano (+140) vs. Seungoo Choi (-165)
- Julio Arce (+170) vs. Montel Jackson (-200)
- Carlos Ulberg (-130) vs. Nicolae Negumereanu (+110)
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Adesanya Ready to Rewrite History Against Pereira
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At this point, it's pretty well known that Alex Pereira and Israel Adesanya met twice in the kickboxing ring and the Brazilian came out on top both times. The second time was a third-round knockout from a left hook.
Adesanya hasn't made excuses for the losses. He's just ready to write a new chapter in the rivalry between the two strikers.
"This is about me and my legacy. This is about rewriting history. Even though it is history and I never chased this, this is about me rewriting a new path of history and just showing people what I can really do because, again, y'all must've forgot," the 33-year-old told The MMA Hour with Ariel Helwani (h/t Alexander K. Lee of MMA Fighting).
The matchup is fascinating because Adesanya is obviously the more accomplished fighter under MMA rules, but he leans so heavily on his kickboxing background that this is a new challenge for him.
Pereira, 35, has had less time to adjust to the UFC. He's fought just seven times with a 6-1 record but is 3-0 in the biggest promotion with a knockout win over Sean Strickland to earn the title shot.
Adesanya's edge in experience could be the difference here. Expect him to do whatever necessary to get the win, including surprising his opponent with some grappling.
Prediction: Adesanya via decision
Champion Esparza Unbothered by Being Underdog
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Carla Esparza will walk into the Octagon with the gold around her waist, but she isn't the favorite going into her co-main matchup with Zhang Weili.
The 35-year-old doesn't seem to be too bothered by the doubt, though. That's what happens when you've been at it as long as she has.
"It is funny," Esparza told Damon Martin of MMA Fighting. "Before, I would say early in my career it would kind of bum me out like 'hey, I’m a good fighter!' But now it just makes me smile and laugh."
Esparza was an underdog going into her fight with then-champion Rose Namajunas. That didn't stop her from going out and taking the belt with a split-decision win over the 30-year-old.
Zhang wasn't able to find the same success against the former champion. She went 0-2 against her in back-to-back title fights, but that's a perfect example of styles making fights.
Namajunas had the stopping power as a striker to negate Zhang's pressure, but Esparza does not. She's a strong wrestler but doesn't bring a ton to the table when the fight is standing up.
Prediction: Zhang via third-round TKO
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Chandler Already Angling for Lightweight Title Shot
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Michael Chandler has a key lightweight matchup against Dustin Poirier on the UFC 281 main card, but that hasn't stopped him from talking about a future matchup with new champion Islam Makhachev.
The Dagestani grappler earned the title with a dominant win over Charles Oliveira. Do Bronx had victories over both Chandler and Poirier, so the new champion breathes new life into their respective campaigns to get the belt back.
The problem is that featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski could be looking to move up in an attempt to be a two-division champion.
Chandler has addressed the possibility before his matchup against Poirier.
"I think when I handle business on Saturday night, it'll be undeniable that they're going to want to see good old-fashioned passion in American wrestling vs. Dagestani sambo, Dagestani grappling," he said, per Nolan King and Ken Hathaway of MMA Junkie.
Chandler would be wise to take things one step at a time. He is 1-2 in his last three fights, and his front-kick knockout of Tony Ferguson hasn't necessarily aged well given El Cucuy's loss to Nate Diaz in September.
Poirier's sharp boxing could be the difference in a really exciting fight.
Prediction: Poirier via third-round TKO
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