Ranking the Top 10 Landing Spots for Carlos Correa After Opt-Out Decision
Everyone can stop wondering whether Carlos Correa will opt out of his deal with the Minnesota Twins. He's going to, which means it's time to start wondering about his possible landing spots.
It indeed would have been a surprise if Correa had opted in for a second season with the Twins in 2023. And as such, it was no surprise whatsoever when he revealed to Puerto Rican newspaper El Nuevo Día on Wednesday that he will do no such thing.
"With the year that I have had, my health and my being at the best moment of my career at 28, that is the right decision," the two-time All-Star shortstop said, as relayed by Brian Murphy of MLB.com.
Nobody expected Correa to sign with the Twins in the first place, much less on a smaller-than-expected contract at three years, $105.3 million. By declining the $70.2 million that was left on the deal, he's clearly indicating he thinks he can do better.
What Might It Cost to Sign Correa?
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If not $70.2 million over two years, what will Correa be looking for in his next payday?
Only he and his people know for sure, but we can point to a January report from Jon Heyman of the New York Post that shed light on what they were looking for on last winter's free-agent market:
Though Correa didn't end up beating the 10-year, $325 million deal that Corey Seager signed with the Texas Rangers, it wouldn't be unreasonable for him to set his sights on those numbers all over again on the 2022-23 market.
For one thing, the 28-year-old won't have to worry about a qualifying offer this time. And while he's only younger than Seager by 148 days, he's technically in the same place now that Seager was last year: coming off his age-27 season.
And what an age-27 season it was. Correa started slow but salvaged a .291/.366/.467 slash line with a 140 OPS+ and 5.4 rWAR. His less-than-awesome defensive ratings, meanwhile, are a mere blip on a track record that includes Gold and Platinum Gloves.
Correa's career numbers include a 129 OPS+, 155 home runs and 39.5 rWAR, the latter of which is tops among shortstops since 2015. And while there's a certain amount of tarnish that can't be ignored, his 18 career playoff home runs must also be acknowledged.
As for which teams are candidates to sign Correa to a deal in the 10-year, $300 million neighborhood, we can speculate on 10 by way of available reporting and what our gut has to say. While we're at it, let's rank them according to how much sense they make for him based on their needs and apparent financial resources.
10-6: Twins, Atlanta, Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers
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10. Minnesota Twins
Current Shortstop: Carlos Correa (5.4 rWAR)
2023 Commitments: $118.8 Million
It's not out of the question that the Twins will retain Correa, especially in light of his seemingly sincere appreciation for the organization and the city. But if president of baseball operations Derek Falvey's repeated use of the word "creative" in regard to a new contract for Correa is any indication, the means to do a realistic deal with him likely aren't there.
9. Atlanta
Current Shortstop: Dansby Swanson (5.7 rWAR)
2023 Commitments: $164.3 Million
Correa's agent, Scott Boras, reportedly tried to engage Atlanta on the star shortstop after the MLB lockout ended last March. Swanson's looming free agency may be the only excuse Boras needs to try again, but it's hard to imagine Correa being in the team's price range now that it has hundreds of millions of dollars' worth of extensions on its books.
8. Boston Red Sox
Current Shortstop: Xander Bogaerts (5.7 rWAR)
2023 Commitments: $112.1 Million
The Red Sox will have a massive hole to fill at shortstop if Bogaerts follows Correa's lead and opts out, and the chances of that seem very good even though he was being coy about it in September. Yet even if that hole could theoretically be filled by Correa, one assumes the Red Sox would sooner re-sign Bogaerts than bring in a likely more expensive replacement.
7. New York Yankees
Current Shortstop: Isiah Kiner-Falefa (2.9 rWAR)
2023 Commitments: $151 Million
We're contractually obligated to mention the Yankees as a possible fit whenever we're discussing destinations for Correa or any other brand-name shortstop. Yet them breaking the bank for one still feels like a reach. Maybe if Aaron Judge actually departs via free agency, but even then they'll still have shortstop prospects Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza to fall back on.
6. Los Angeles Dodgers
Current Shortstop: Trea Turner (4.9 rWAR)
2023 Commitments: $159.9 Million
Turner is also going to be a free agent this winter, yet the Dodgers' pockets go more than deep enough to justify an attempt to upgrade at short by signing Correa. So on paper, it's a good fit. But in reality, we can't help but wonder if there are still some hard feelings in the Dodgers clubhouse about the role that Correa played on the 2017 Astros.
5. Baltimore Orioles
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Current Shortstop: Jorge Mateo (3.3 rWAR)
2023 Commitments: $19.6 Million
The Baltimore Orioles may not have made the playoffs, but they left little question amid an 83-79 showing in 2022 that they're ready to rise in the American League East.
Between this and the fact that Baltimore's payroll once went as high as $164.3 million in 2017, the financials alone invite images of Correa decked out in black and orange.
Then there's the Mike Elias connection. Before he left to run the Orioles front office in 2018, he worked as a scouting assistant and assistant general manager in Houston. And by all accounts, it's largely because of him that the team drafted Correa No. 1 overall in 2012.
This idea has catches, however, starting with the team's uncertain ownership situation. Elias says he's ready to spend, but past reporting on the position of ownership makes it hard to count on something as large as $300 million for Correa.
There's also the question of whether Correa would want to play at Oriole Park at Camden Yards now that it's no longer friendly to right-handed sluggers. And also, whether he'd prefer a team with a more direct route to contention after professing to not want "to be part of no rebuilding" in July.
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4. St. Louis Cardinals
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Current Shortstop: Tommy Edman (6.3 rWAR)
2023 Commitments: $84.2 Million
It's only fair to Edman to recognize that he was not just a very good shortstop in 2022, but indeed the best in the National League as measured by rWAR.
Yet this was overwhelmingly thanks to the 27-year-old's legs and glove. He stole 32 bases in 35 tries while also playing excellent defense at shortstop and second base, but his bat produced just a .265/.324/.400 line and a 108 OPS+.
The Cardinals would thus be arranging a two-part upgrade if they were to go all-in on Correa, as he'd be a substantial offensive boost at short while pushing Edman and his glove to second base. As a bonus, slugging youngster Nolan Gorman would become trade bait.
As for whether the defending National League Central champions have the money to accommodate Correa, it helps that $35 million worth of salary that went to Adam Wainwright, Yadier Molina, Corey Dickerson and Albert Pujols in 2022 is coming off the team's books.
And yet, the Cardinals making a splash on Correa feels a touch too far out of their character. Matt Holliday's $120 million contract from 2010 is still the largest contract they've ever done.
3. San Francisco Giants
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Current Shortstop: Brandon Crawford (0.6 rWAR)
2023 Commitments: $104.5 Million
There's at least one reason to count the San Francisco Giants as a suitor for Correa, and it has to do with the sheer amount of money they could spend this winter.
Those $104.5 million in commitments for 2023 put them roughly $70 million below the franchise's high marks from 2015 and 2016, and that's including $35.5 million worth of salary for Carlos Rodón, who team president Farhan Zaidi expects to opt out, and Evan Longoria, who's likely to be let go, per USA Today's Bob Nightengale.
Among the players who will be back in 2023, the Giants wouldn't necessarily be out of line in betting on Crawford bouncing back. He finished fourth in the NL MVP voting for his part in the team's 107-win season in 2021, also collecting his third All-Star nod and his fourth Gold Glove.
The trouble is, Crawford is 35 years old, and his 2021 season is a major outlier relative to the rest of his career. It was little surprise, then, when Nightengale reported that a star shortstop could be in the team's plans for the winter.
The caveat is that Judge will be the team's top priority. As it could take as much as $300 million to sign him, it's probably one or the other between him and Correa.
2. Philadelphia Phillies
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Current Shortstop: Bryson Stott (1.3 rWAR)
2023 Commitments: $163.9 Million
The Philadelphia Phillies tied for 25th in rWAR out of the shortstop position in 2022, but it would have been worse without Stott.
The rookie's first few weeks in the majors were brutal, but something (perhaps uncoincidentally) clicked right around when the Phillies fired manager Joe Girardi in June. After that, Stott posted a respectable .716 OPS with 10 home runs over 102 games.
All the same, it doesn't sound as if the Phillies are about to let Stott stand in their way of upgrading at shortstop.
Several reports have hinted that they're going to be in the market for this winter's top options, including ones from Nightengale and Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. To make the money work, they could only help themselves by declining $32 million worth of options on Jean Segura and Zach Eflin.
Otherwise, Citizens Bank Park is a notorious bandbox, and the Phillies finally proved their contention bona fides by snapping a 10-year playoff drought. As such, the only question we have is whether the team might prefer a more athletic, leadoff-hitting type such as Turner.
1. Chicago Cubs
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Current Shortstop: Nico Hoerner (4.5 rWAR)
2023 Commitments: $91.5 Million
Here's where we find another NL Central team that already has a good-looking incumbent at shortstop.
In fact, Hoerner might as well be Diet Edman. Even without much power, he still provided value in 2022 by way of a contact-fueled .281 batting average, 20 stolen bases in 22 tries and 11 defensive runs saved just at shortstop. He's a cornerstone, no question.
And yet, Nightengale reported in June that the Cubs are expected to be in on the big shortstops this winter. For his part, manager David Ross seems fine with that:
In concept, Correa and the Cubs are not a new pairing. They were considered a heavy favorite to sign him last winter, but his perfectly understandable "no rebuilding" stance wasn't exactly conducive to negotiations.
Things look a little different now after the Cubs dignified their 74-88 season with a 39-31 run in the second half. A powerful hitter and slick defender like Correa would surely provide a boost to their chances of returning to contention in the near future. And with their spending well below capacity, there's no reason they can't make him a good offer.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant. Salary info via Spotrac and Cot's Contracts unless otherwise noted.
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