2022 MLB Free Agents: Updated Rumors, Predictions on Top Stars Available
Aaron Judge is heading toward free agency this offseason and he is bringing a historic hitting season along with him.
The Yankees slugger is at the top of most free agent lists and many are wondering who will send monumental offers his way. The Chicago Cubs likely will, but just how realistic is it that Judge plays out the rest of his career at Wrigley Field?
That is just one topic in this collection of rumor and innuendo surrounding what figures to be one of the busiest, and most high-profile, free agency periods in recent memory.
Also included are updates on Mets ace Jacob deGrom, the Dodgers' Trea Turner and what looks to be a red-hot shortstop market.
A Surprising Team in the Jacob deGrom Free Agency Sweepstakes?
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New York Mets ace Jacob deGrom figures to be one of the most coveted free agents this offseason, particularly by contending teams looking for that one starter that can put them over the top in their hunt for a world title.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported that there is a potential surprise candidate that could make a run at deGrom: the Texas Rangers. He cited their preparedness to take a $40 million gamble on the best pitcher in baseball, a commitment many either are not ready to make or cannot financially.
Add to that Rangers president Chris Young teasing that the team would "leave no stone unturned" in their pursuit of a big-time starter and you have every reason to believe Texas will at least extend an offer to deGrom.
Despite an injury that cost him 13 months, deGrom returned in August and resumed his place among the best pitchers in the business. While the Mets as a whole struggled through September and lost their lead in the NL East to Atlanta, his return to the mound has been a huge sigh of relief for fans who still hope to see their team win their first World Series title since 1986.
To retain his services beyond this postseason and ensure championship aspirations are met moving forward, the Mets will have to pony up a huge contract for a guy who has been as good as anyone when healthy.
With Mets owner Steve Cohen reiterating his desire to keep deGrom in New York on Heyman's The Show podcast, it is safe to say management will everything in its power to retain his services.
Prediction: deGrom stays in New York on a record deal similar, but slightly more than Max Scherzer received last offseason.
The Dodgers Are Not Favored to Re-sign Trea Turner
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Last offseason, the Los Angeles Dodgers allowed Corey Seager to sign with the Texas Rangers, unwilling to pay him the bank-breaking contract to keep him in the City of Angels. That deal was for $325 million and there is every reason to believe that Turner will attract a larger offer in the realm of $330 million, making it less likely that he stays put.
USA Today's Bob Nightengale reported that the Philadelphia Phillies are the current favorites to acquire Turner. The team will free up $50 million this offseason and will likely look to add the All-Star's bat as well as his fielding expertise as it looks to become a force in the NL once again.
"Dodgers All-Star shortstop Trea Turner should earn at least $330 million this winter as the top free agent to hit the market and says that Los Angeles has grown on him as a city," Nightengale writes. Baseball is a business, though, and Turner is unlikely to stay put if he knows there is a team willing to break the bank to bring him in and make him a focal point of their championship push.
Turner saw his stats drop this season in every major category except for RBIs and strikeouts. At times, it appeared as though he was chasing balls, looking to pad his home run numbers, leading to the uptick in strikeouts.
Still, he added 20 more RBIs than a year ago, had an on-base percentage of .344 and still accounted for the second-most home runs of his career (20). Factor in his defensive skill set at shortstop, where he ranks among the best at that coveted position, and it is easy to understand why he will attract some potentially historic contract offers this offseason.
The Phillies, despite having a roster featuring the likes of Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto and star pitcher Aaron Nola, could use an upgrade at shortstop. Turner would be a significant one and a key cog in its attempt to re-establish itself as a contender in an NL East in which they find themselves looking up at the Mets and defending world champions, the Atlanta Braves.
Prediction: Despite other big-money offers, Turner finds his way to Philly, joining a team with enough pieces to make a run in the years to come.
A Hot Shortstop Market
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Speaking of Turner, he is just one of several shortstops expected to attract significant attention (and money) this offseason.
Heyman reported that the Phillies, Cardinals, Giants, Cubs, Dodgers, Red Sox, Braves and Twins will all be in pursuit of the top shortstops available. Turner joins Dansby Swanson, Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts as targets for teams looking to shore up their roster at that position and willing to spend significantly to do so.
Interestingly enough, the New York Yankees are not expected to be part of that process.
Correa has made it clear that he is available for the right price, equating pursuing him to shopping at Dior. "When I go to the mall, and I go to the Dior store, when I want something, I get it. I ask how much it costs, and I buy it. If you really want something, you just go get it. I'm the product here. If they want my product, they've just got to come and get it," he told reporter Jim Rich (h/t Star Tribune).
A matter-of-fact answer that shows how aware of his own skills Correa is and what teams will have to do to entice him when he opts out of his deal with Minnesota to become a free agent.
He will be villainized and considered egotistical for that response, but in reality, it was an honest answer about his value and what a potential suitor should be prepared for when courting him.
While it may be stated differently, one would be hard-pressed to find any of the free agents who do not at least partly feel the same about themselves. The question is who ends up where.
Turner has already been linked to Philly. Bogaerts will likely opt out in Boston but feels like the safest bet to return to his current team. Swanson has been a key asset in Atlanta's ability to come back and seize control of the NL East. He is not a flashy player but he does everything very well and earned an All-Star nod in 2022 as a result.
The defending world champs have made tough decisions before, none tougher than letting Freddie Freeman walk after last season, it would not be a surprise to see Swanson move on after the postseason wraps up.
Where he and Correa end up is anyone's guess but one thing is for certain: they are going to be able to shop at Dior whenever they please with the contracts they are about to earn.
Prediction: Turner to Philly, Bogaerts stays put, Swanson to the Giants and Correa to the Cubs
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Aaron Judge Unlikely to Join Chicago Cubs
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Speaking of the Cubs, do not look for Aaron Judge to head west to Wrigley following his historic slugging season.
A busy Heyman reported that Judge joining the Cubs would be "a surprise," citing his friendship with Anthon Rizzo and the hard feelings that exist between him and the organization's front office.
"Of all the speculated landing spots for Aaron Judge, the Cubs would be a surprise. He and Anthony Rizzo are very close, and while Rizzo surely loves Cubs fans, things didn’t end well there with the front office."
Rizzo played 10 seasons for Chicago, won a World Series with the team and was among its most beloved players. He struggled a bit in his final season, thanks to injuries, and was unceremoniously shipped out of town in favor of a minor league pitcher and outfielder, as well as unspecified cash.
It was a hugely disappointing conclusion to a magical run for Rizzo, who was also a three-time All-Star and four-time Gold Glove winner with the team.
Considering the closeness between Judge and Rizzo, there is every reason to believe the latter would warn his star teammate of the front office issues he would deal with in Chicago and, potentially, convince him not to join the team.
Judge is a consensus top free agent this offseason, coming off a historic run that has seen him tie Roger Maris' home run record at 61, with plenty of time left to break it. After turning down a contract extension from the Yankees worth $213.5 million, he is expected to sign one of the richest deals in the sport.
It just likely will not be with the Cubs, who have not come close to a World Series win since their win in 2016, when the final out was recorded by, you guessed it, Rizzo.
Prediction: Judge stays put in New York, where the Yankees make him the highest-paid slugger ever and capitalize on his marketability and star power, two vital attributes when playing in that city.
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