Sports Cards: Predicting the Next $10 Million Card After Mickey Mantle Sale
A record for the highest-selling sports card in history was set Saturday when a 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle card graded an SGC 9.5 sold for a staggering $12.6 million at Heritage Auctions.
The previous record belonged to an SGC 2 copy of the legendary T206 Honus Wagner card that sold for $7.25 million Aug. 3, but the Mantle card unseated it from the top spot less than a month later.
Darren Rovell of Action Network keeps a running top-10 list of the highest sports card sales of all time, which could be a helpful tool in predicting the next card to join the $10 million club. Given the way the high-end market is exploding, it's only a matter of time.
So what kinds of cards have a chance to hit that lofty figure?
Iconic rookies like the 1986 Fleer Michael Jordan rookie (322 copies in PSA 10) and the 1989 Upper Deck Ken Griffey Jr. rookie (4,041 copies in PSA 10) have too many high-grade copies in circulation to approach the $10 million figure.
However, a handful of rarer cards—both vintage and modern—could surpass that previously unseen number.
We've highlighted five cards that could garner the next $10 million sale.
1909-11 T206 Honus Wagner
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This card was the gold standard prior to the Mickey Mantle sale, and it's reasonable to believe it could take back the title of highest-selling sports card in history.
With only 50 to 60 copies in existence, it has long been the holy grail of sports card collecting, and it set the previous high sale record in August 2021 ($6.6 million) and then again this month ($7.25 million).
"There's a reason why no Wagner card has ever sold for less than it was previously purchased for—the card is art, it's history, it's folklore," Goldin Auctions founder Ken Goldin said in a statement after facilitating the $7.25 million sale.
The story often told is that Wagner did not want to encourage young fans to buy cigarette packs for the sake of baseball cards, but that has never been confirmed. Another popular theory is that he wanted more money for the use of his likeness.
At any rate, his cards were pulled from production early in the print run, but a few made their way into the wild, and they are a part of sports memorabilia history.
2003-04 Exquisite Collection LeBron James RPA /23
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This card holds the high-sale record among basketball cards, selling for $5.2 million in April 2021, and sits tied for fourth with a PSA 9 Mickey Mantle card that sold for the same price on the all-sport list.
When the 2003-04 Exquisite Collection product line first hit shelves, it was a new level of premium product with a price tag of $500 per pack. That looks like a steal given how the LeBron James card has exploded over the years.
The base version of his rookie card has a print run of just 99, but a rookie parallel version had an even smaller print run of 23, and the parallel version is the one that sold for $5.2 million.
Since the previous sale was of a BGS 9 version, it's not unreasonable to think that if one of the other 22 were to surface as a PSA 10, it could go for more than double the price and become the next $10 million sports card.
2000 Playoff Contenders Championship Ticket Tom Brady AU /100
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The most valuable Tom Brady rookie card is part of the 2000 Playoff Contenders set, and the card has a Championship Ticket parallel with a limited print run of just 100.
A BGS 9 version sold in June 2021 for $3.1 million, which was the highest sale of all time for a football card.
Later that year, a Patrick Mahomes 1-of-1 rookie card sold for $4.3 million to overtake the Brady card for the top spot among football cards, but plenty of room exists for Brady to return to No. 1 on that list.
Thirteen of them have been graded by PSA, and none have received a PSA 10 grade. If a PSA 10 popped up, it could make a serious run at the $10 million figure, especially once Brady hangs it up and takes his place in Canton.
1979-80 O-Pee-Chee Wayne Gretzky
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Hockey cards don't often demand the same premium as the other three major sports, but there are exceptions, and the 1979-80 O-Pee-Chee Wayne Gretzky rookie card is the most notable of the bunch.
The greatest hockey player of all time only has two different rookie cards, and they look almost identical, but they have a significant price difference.
Throughout the 1970s, 1980s and early 1990s, Topps released its flagship set stateside and its O-Pee-Chee set north of the border in Canada. The O-Pee-Chee cards had the same design, but the text on the back was in both English and French, and the cards were printed on a lower-quality card stock than their Topps counterparts.
That means it's more difficult to find high-grade versions of the O-Pee-Chee card, especially given how easily its bright blue border shows wear. Of the 8,121 submitted to PSA over the years, only two have come back with a PSA 10 grade.
One of those PSA 10s sold for $3.75 million in May 2021. As the high-end sports card market continues to climb, this holy grail card has a chance to move up considerably in value.
The Mickey Mantle sale was the third time in the past 12 months that the record for highest sports card sale has been broken, so things are trending up in a big way.
2009 Bowman Chrome Superfractor Mike Trout AU
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Can Mike Trout avoid the injury bug in the coming years?
The Los Angeles Angels superstar was on a potential GOAT trajectory a few years ago, but after playing in roughly 43 percent of his team's games the past two seasons, he faces questions about his legacy.
If he can return to good health and rattle off several more MVP-caliber seasons, his market could spike, and no card will carry more value than his 2009 Bowman Chrome superfractor autograph.
It's the 1-of-1 autographed version of his first Bowman card, and it most recently sold for $3.9 million in 2020.
It was the highest-selling sports card ever at the time of purchase and still sits No. 8 on the list. Given the direction the high-end market is heading in, it's possible that value could more than double if he continues to build an all-time great legacy.
