Struggling MLB Stars Primed to Get Hot in the 2nd Half
The All-Star break can sometimes serve as a fresh start for players who have struggled to produce up to expectations during the first half of the season.
With postseason races heating up, a rocky first few months of the year can quickly be forgotten if a player catches fire just as postseason races are starting to heat up.
Ahead, we've highlighted 10 MLB stars who have not performed as hoped so far this season relative to their previous track record but are poised to turn things around in the second half based on advanced metrics, recent performance and past history.
SP Jose Berrios, Toronto Blue Jays
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Jose Berrios posted a 3.58 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 78 strikeouts in 70.1 innings over 12 starts after joining the Blue Jays in a deadline deal last summer, and Toronto inked him to a seven-year, $131 million extension during the offseason.
Expected to be among the AL Cy Young front-runners, he instead struggled to a 5.22 ERA in 101.2 innings during the first half. However, he finally seems to be turning in a corner with a 3.09 ERA and 29 strikeouts in 23.1 innings in four July starts.
The big issue has been home runs, as he's allowed an AL-high 20 after surrendering just 22 in 90.1 more innings last year. He has been taken deep just three times in his past four starts after serving up eight long balls in five June outings, so things are trending in the right direction.
RF Nick Castellanos, Philadelphia Phillies
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After a 34-homer, 100-RBI, 137-OPS+ season with the Cincinnati Reds last year, Nick Castellanos opted out of the final two years of his contract and signed a five-year, $100 million deal with the Philadelphia Phillies.
Expected to join Bryce Harper and fellow newcomer Kyle Schwarber as middle-of-the-order sluggers, Castellanos has instead hit a punchless .251/.297/.376 for a 90 OPS+ with eight home runs and 46 RBI.
However, the 30-year-old has a career OPS that is 33 points higher after the All-Star break, so he has historically been a better second-half player. Interim manager Rob Thomson has not lost faith.
"I haven't really thought about [moving him down in the lineup] because I think he's going to come out of it at any moment," Thomson told reporters. "And when he does, he'll be in the right spot."
LF Joey Gallo, New York Yankees
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This is contingent on Joey Gallo being traded by the New York Yankees at the deadline.
No player in recent memory has needed a change of scenery more than Gallo, who has simply never found his rhythm in the Bronx while facing unceasing scrutiny from Yankees fans.
It's telling that he has hit significantly better on the road (.718 OPS, 7 HR) than he has at home (.533 OPS, 4 HR), and with all of his recent struggles, it's easy to forget that at this time a year ago he was an All-Star with the Texas Rangers and had a 138 OPS+ with 25 home runs and 4.2 WAR in 95 games before he was traded to the Yankees at the deadline.
The 28-year-old is playing in a contract year, and while he may have to settle for a one-year, prove-it deal on the open market, a strong second half would go a long way toward increasing his 2023 salary.
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RHP Craig Kimbrel, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Veteran Craig Kimbrel has converted 16 of 19 save chances in his first season with the Los Angeles Dodgers, but he's done it with a less-than-stellar 4.22 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 34 appearances.
Do the Dodgers need to consider a ninth-inning upgrade at the deadline?
Behind his mediocre ERA, Kimbrel has a 1.92 FIP and a .392 batting average on balls in play, which is a good indication that he has been the recipient of some bad luck.
He is still striking out batters at an elite rate with 13.5 K/9, and with 388 career saves, no one has a better track record nailing down games among active pitchers. The Dodgers could use another bullpen arm or two, but there's no reason to think Kimbrel can't handle closer duties.
SS Francisco Lindor, New York Mets
5 of 10
Expectations enter another level when you sign a 10-year, $341 million deal, and it's fair to say Francisco Lindor has failed to live up to those expectations thus far during his time with the New York Mets.
The 28-year-old is hitting .248/.324/.432 for a 114 OPS+ with 16 home runs and 66 RBI in 92 games, and while that is solid production for most players, it's a bit short of what is expected from a $341-million player.
With a .275/.351/.493 line in 77 plate appearances in July, he is starting to look more like the perennial MVP candidate we saw in Cleveland, and he entered the All-Star break riding an 11-game hitting streak.
DH Marcell Ozuna, Atlanta Braves
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After posting a 69 OPS+ in 208 plate appearances in 2021, Marcell Ozuna is still searching for the MVP-caliber form he showed in 2020 when he led the NL in home runs and RBI before signing a new four-year, $65 million deal with the Atlanta Braves.
The 31-year-old is hitting a meager .221/.278/.407 this season, and while he has hit 17 home runs, his 87 OPS+ ranks 131st among 155 qualified hitters.
If his batted-ball metrics are any indication, better days lie ahead. He ranks among the MLB leaders in hard-hit rate (84th percentile) and barrel rate (89th percentile), and his 22.2 percent strikeout rate is right in line with his career mark.
2B Marcus Semien, Texas Rangers
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Aside from a memorable double-header on June 7 when he went 7-for-8 with three home runs, it has been a quiet first season with the Texas Rangers for Marcus Semien after he signed a seven-year, $175 million deal during the offseason.
After finishing third in AL MVP voting a year ago, he is hitting just .242/.303/.405 for a 101 OPS+ with 16 doubles, 13 home runs and 43 RBI in 90 games.
However, if his July numbers are any indication, he's in for a big second half.
The 31-year-old is hitting .290/.364/.580 with five home runs and 11 RBI in 77 plate appearances this month, and he went 2-for-3 with a double in his first game coming out of the All-Star break.
LHP Blake Snell, San Diego Padres
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The San Diego Padres have utilized a six-man rotation for most of the season, and Blake Snell has been the weak link with a 5.22 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 50.0 innings spanning 10 starts.
The 2018 AL Cy Young winner struggled in his final start of the first half, allowing four hits, six walks and five earned runs in 3.2 innings against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field, but he looked to be finding his groove in the two starts prior.
He had his two highest strikeout totals of the season against the Los Angeles Dodgers (5.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 12 K) and San Francisco Giants (6.0 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 11 K) during his first two starts in July, and looking at the overall picture, his 3.69 FIP is a good indicator that he is due for some positive regression.
RHP Marcus Stroman, Chicago Cubs
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Looking for more of a roster retooling than a full-scale rebuild, the Chicago Cubs signed Marcus Stroman to a three-year, $71 million deal that includes an opt-out after the first two years and $50 million of the contract.
The 31-year-old pitched to a 3.02 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 179.0 innings with the New York Mets last season, and he has been a workhorse starter capable of frontline production throughout his MLB career.
So far, he has a 4.69 ERA in 55.2 innings in a Cubs uniform, and he missed time in June with a shoulder injury.
He returned to action on July 9, and while the Cubs are patiently building his arm back up, he has allowed just three hits and one earned run in 8.1 innings in his first two appearances since being activated. With a clean bill of health, a productive second half awaits.
RHP Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee Brewers
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Somewhat overshadowed by teammate and NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes last season, Brandon Woodruff was an elite starter in his own right, posting a 2.56 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 211 strikeouts in 179.1 innings to finish fifth in Cy Young balloting.
The 29-year-old has been decidedly less dominant this year with a 3.93 ERA in 66.1 innings, but with a 3.04 FIP and an impressive 84 strikeouts in 66.1 innings, it's only a matter of time before his numbers more closely resemble his 2021 output.
He missed almost the entire month of June dealing with Raynaud's syndrome, a circulatory condition that causes numbness in the extremities. Since returning on June 28, though, he has a 2.38 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 31 strikeouts in 22.2 innings.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and accurate through Thursday's games.
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