NFL Draft 2022: Malik Willis, Kenny Pickett and QB Predictions in Latest Expert Mocks

While it's widely considered a down year at the quarterback position, QBs continue to generate the most intrigue heading into the 2022 NFL draft.

The lack of a clear standout passer might be fueling more debate than usual. Plenty of teams in the top half of the first round could use a QB (the Detroit Lions, Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons and Seattle Seahawks) but face a dearth of attractive options.

If one of those four franchises selects a quarterback in the top 10, it may open the floodgates. Conversely, it could be a barren landscape in the first round if all four pass on a QB.

Because of that uncertainty, you don't envy Malik Willis, Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ridder, Sam Howell or Matt Corral.

Based on the projections from a handful of experts, here's how things could shake out.

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Willis the Heir Apparent to Big Ben?

ESPN's Matt Miller and NFL Network's Rhett Lewis projected the Pittsburgh Steelers to select Willis with the No. 20 overall pick. The signing of Mitchell Trubisky would allow Pittsburgh to make a gradual transition to the Liberty star as Ben Roethlisberger's long-term successor.

Todd McShay of ESPN reported the Steelers "like" Willis, so the dilemma might be whether they feel the need to trade up to land the 6'0½" signal-caller.

Pro Football Focus' Ari Meirov had Willis off the board at No. 8 to the Falcons, leaving the Steelers to select Pickett. That's also where Dane Brugler of The Athletic pegged Willis, while The Athletic's Nate Tice had him going to the Seahawks at No. 9. The PFF editorial staff listed him as No. 6 to Carolina.

NBC Sports' Peter King ventured well off the beaten path when he didn't project Willis as a first-round pick at all. King mocked Pickett to the Steelers, describing it as "a gut feeling more than anything else."

The presence of Trubisky gives the Steelers one reason to go with a long-term project such as Willis rather than Pickett, who's probably closer to a finished product.

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Pickett Proving Difficult to Read

Pickett might have an even wider variance of likely outcomes than Willis.

On April 5, McShay had the Pittsburgh star as the choice for the Panthers at No. 6. However, the ESPN expert painted a far different picture Monday in the First Draft podcast.

"Carolina, according to all the intel that I've gotten, especially over this past weekend, is not taking a quarterback at six," he said. "We all thought—every one of us thought—it was a better than 50-50 chance that they would. Now, I think it's about a 10 percent chance."

McShay added it's possible that—assuming the Steelers take Willis—Pickett is available when the Lions are on the clock at No. 32 to close out the first round.

Brugler and Tice's mocks also reinforce how Thursday could be a very good or a very bad day for the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award winner. Brugler had him at No. 6 to Carolina, whereas Tice put him in Detroit with the 34th pick.

CBSSports.com's Ryan Wilson was even more lukewarm on Pickett as he mocked him 43rd to the Falcons.

Pickett had a prolific 2021 season, throwing for 4,319 yards, 42 touchdowns and seven interceptions.

Being considered the "most pro-ready QB" in a draft class can be a blessing or a curse, and it's typically the latter when a player will turn 24 by the time he steps onto an NFL field.

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Will Anybody Else Sneak into the First Round?

To the degree that any confidence can be applied to the 2022 QB class, Willis and Pickett have emerged as the consensus first-round candidates.

That isn't to say Ridder, Howell or Corral is destined to be a Day 2 pick. NFL Network's Tom Pelissero reported Monday there could be "a bit of a run late in Round 1."

According to King, the Falcons "like" Corral, and he had them trade back into the first round and take the Ole Miss star at No. 32.

Ridder was the No. 20 pick for Pittsburgh in Brugler and Tice's mocks. The PFF editorial mock projected the Seahawks to acquire the No. 32 selection from Detroit in order to snag him. Lewis viewed the Cincinnati star as the eventual replacement for Ryan Tannehill with the Tennessee Titans.

Howell is also garnering some buzz in the late stages of Round 1. Lewis mocked him as the final pick to Detroit.

ESPN's Jordan Reid reported the No. 32 pick "has been circled as a trade-up spot for teams looking to take a swing on a quarterback who falls to the back end of the first round." Reid added Howell is "the name I've been told to keep an eye on."