2012 NFL Mock Draft: Riskiest Picks in the First Round

The NFL Draft is risky business, as you just never know which players are going to be stars and which are going to be busts.

You would need a crystal ball to know for sure how each pick is going to pan out, but there are a few picks each year that represent a pretty significant roll of the dice. Sometimes they work out, and sometimes they don't.

We're going to see some of these picks made in the 2012 draft, and we can already make a few educated guesses as far as which players might be involved.

I gave this a shot in my most recent mock draft, and there are five picks in particular that I think would constitute big risks for the teams doing the picking.

Let's discuss them one by one.

New England Patriots draft Nebraska DE Jared Crick

Jared Crick was in line to be a top-20 pick before the 2011 season got underway, but his stock has taken a dent thanks to a torn pectoral muscle.

Crick still has first-round talent, but he's a wild card. He'll be coming into the draft off a pretty major injury, and that will lead more than a couple teams to shy away from him.

The other concern is that Crick is a little bit of a tweener. He can play anywhere, but he's not quite big enough to play defensive tackle in a 4-3 defense and not quite athletic enough to excel at defensive end. The best fit for him appears to be at defensive end in a 3-4 scheme, but even that is a little iffy.

Still, Crick has too much potential to fall out of the first round, and I don't think the Pats would pass on him if he's there for the taking late in the first round. They could use a 3-4 defensive end.

Dallas Cowboys draft North Alabama CB Janoris Jenkins

Talent is not the issue when it comes to Janoris Jenkins. The issue with him is whether or not he has the character to cut it in the NFL.

He certainly didn't have the character to cut it at Florida, as he was arrested twice in three months on drug-related charges and was kicked off the team. 

There are places Jenkins can go where his past will be forgotten, but I don't think Dallas is one of them. Playing for the Cowboys means playing in a pressure cooker, and some of Jenkins' old bad habits might pop up again if he were to let the pressure get to him.

But because Jenkins is indeed talented, and because the Cowboys could use a cornerback, I don't think Dallas would pass on him. They would take him and hope he keeps his act together.

If he doesn't, the Cowboys will have wasted a first-round draft pick that they really can't afford to waste.

Seattle Seahawks draft Oklahoma QB Landry Jones

I was a huge fan of Landry Jones before the season started, but he never really lived up to expectations. Even when he was playing well, he could have played better.

And then he went in the tank late in the season after the Sooners lost Ryan Broyles to a torn ACL. Jones hasn't been the same quarterback since, and he has a lot of doubts to erase in the Insight Bowl against the Iowa Hawkeyes.

One way or the other, Jones is going to be a first-round pick, and he keeps finding his way to the Seahawks in my mocks. It's not quite a natural fit, but it's in Seattle's interest to draft and develop a young quarterback.

The development part is what worries me. The Seahawks don't have much talent at the wide receiver position, and that doesn't bode well for a quarterback in Jones who has failed miserably at the college level without his best wide receiver. 

Who knows? It could be that we've already seen the last of the good Landry Jones.

Philadelphia Eagles draft Arizona State ILB Vontaze Burfict

Speaking of guys with questionable character: Nobody is more troubling in that regard than Vontaze Burfict. He's got all the talent in the world, but he was a little too wild at times this season. When he gets to the NFL, he's going to have to chill out.

Part of me thinks the Eagles and Burfict are a perfect fit for one another, as they need a linebacker and he would fit right in with the team's culture (or at least, the culture it was supposed to have). Indeed, this Eagles defense could use a wild man manning the middle.

On the other hand, who's going to tame this wild man? Andy Reid may not be up to the task. He hasn't been able to tame DeSean Jackson, and Burfict is arguably even more of a headache.

This is, of course, assuming that Reid will still be around if and when the Eagles draft Burfict. If not, good luck to whoever has to get him to harness his mean streak.

Buffalo Bills draft North Carolina DE Quinton Coples

There are some differences, but Quinton Coples is basically this year's Robert Quinn. He's a physical freak and a remarkable athlete, and he has the ability to play more than one position at the next level.

But like Quinn, Coples is a wild card. For all his athleticism, he didn't have a very great year in 2011, and that has led some scouts (including ESPN's Todd McShay) to start questioning Coples' desire.

The good news for Coples is that he should own the combine this year, and that will help secure him as a top-10 pick for a team looking for a defensive player with plenty of upside.

The Bills seem to be a perfect fit for Coples because of the shape-shifting defense they use. Conceivably, Coples could play a couple positions, both on the line and off of it.

Coples has the athleticism to do this, but the work ethic will have to be there as well. When it comes to him is the big unknown.

No.	Team (Record)	Player, Pos.
1.	Indianapolis Colts (1-13)	Andrew Luck, QB
2.	St. Louis Rams (2-12)	Alshon Jeffery, WR
3.	Minnesota Vikings (2-12)	Matt Kalil, OT
4.	Cleveland Browns (4-10)	Trent Richardson, RB
5.	Jacksonville Jaguars (4-10)	Justin Blackmon, WR
6.	Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-10)	Morris Claiborne, CB
7.	Washington Redskins (5-9)	Robert Griffin III, QB
8.	Miami Dolphins (5-9)	Matt Barkley, QB
9.	Buffalo Bills (5-9)	Quinton Coples, DE
10.	Carolina Panthers (5-9)	Dre Kirkpatrick, CB
11.	Kansas City Chiefs (6-8)	Riley Reiff, OT
12.	Philadelphia Eagles (6-8)	Vontaze Burfict, ILB
13.	Arizona Cardinals (7-7)	Jonathan Martin, OT
14.	Tennessee Titans (7-7)	Zach Brown, OLB
15.	San Diego Chargers (7-7)	Cordy Glenn, G/T
16.	Seattle Seahawks (7-7)	Landry Jones, QB
17.	Chicago Bears (7-7)	Mike Adams, OT
18.	Cincinnati Bengals (via 7-7 OAK)	Lamar Miller, RB
19.	New York Giants (7-7)	David DeCastro, G
20.	Cincinnati Bengals (8-6)	Alfonzo Dennard, CB
21.	Detroit Lions (9-5)	Stephon Gilmore, CB
22.	New York Jets (8-6)	Courtney Upshaw, OLB
23.	Denver Broncos (8-6)	Devon Still, DT
24.	Dallas Cowboys (8-6)	Janoris Jenkins, CB
25.	Houston Texans (10-4)	Kendall Wright, WR
26.	Cleveland Browns (via 9-5 ATL)	Michael Floyd, WR
27.	Baltimore Ravens (10-4)	Dont'a Hightower, OLB
28.	San Francisco 49ers (10-3)	Nick Toon, WR
29.	Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3)	Levy Adcock, OT
30.	New England Patriots (via 11-3 NO)	Jared Crick, DE
31.	New England Patriots (11-3)	Markelle Martin, S
32.	Green Bay Packers (13-1)	Melvin Ingram, DE