The NFL Playoff Payoff: Gambling on the Games

It's an unlikely oddity whose answer is likely brewing in the darkest depths of Beano Cook's betting besotted brain, but when was the last time all four Wild-Card Weekend road teams were favorites?

Sure these are short dogs, each home team is getting a field goal or less, but still it's odd that all four home teams are underdogs.

In the last three years, underdogs of three points or less have gone 5-1 in the wild-card round. Half of the 12 wild-card games since 2005 have been decided by two touchdowns  or more.

Knowing those slick stats should certainly make picking the playoffs gravy, eh?

In today's parity-ridden NFL, the old maxim torture statistics and they will confess to anything certainly holds true

Atlanta Falcons -2 at Arizona Cardinals

It's the Cardinals' first home playoff game since 1947, when Jim Hart was just a strong armed pup, so expect plenty of gushing oh those sweet, cuddly Bidwell's are finally getting what they deserve.

The Cards padded their record by playing in the worst division in the NFL, six games against three, the San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, and St Louis Rams, of the worst franchises west of Motown.  

The Cards have been fading in the home stretch and QB Kurt Warner looks old again. But can a rookie QB lead the Falcons to a playoff victory?

With the help of a 100-plus yards from RB Michael Turner Matt Ryan can control the game. Expect Falcon DE John Abraham to pressure Warner leaving the aging QB black and blue and the Bid wells just blue.

The battle of the birds goes to the Falcons.

Falcons 33, Cardinals 23

Indianapolis Colts - 1 at San Diego Chargers.

Suddenly, the San Diego Chargers are surging and the King of Denver is dead. Everyone is jumping on the Charger bandwagon.

But Norv Turner is still driving that bandwagon, which means a wicked playoff wreck looms; it's just a matter of when.

The Colts have gotten better, winning their last nine in a row, as the season progressed and some of their key players got healthier.

The Colts beat the Chargers 23-20 at San Diego earlier this year on a last-second field goal. Last year, Chargers backup QB Billy Volek sent the Colts home in the playoffs.

This year Manning cuts up a Chargers defense that will miss Shawn Merriman more in the playoffs. The Colts have the knack this year for late game rallies and are the hottest team heading in the playoffs.

A live long shot at 11-1 to win the Big Bowl the Colts send Norv home again.

Colts 26, Chargers 22

Baltimore Ravens -3 at Miami Dolphins

The Ravens whipped the Fish 27-13 earlier this year in Miami, and now rookie QB Joe Flacco marches the black birds back south.

The Dolphins had a great run and might be happy just reaching the playoffs. The Ravens have a few veterans longing for one final Super Bowl run.

The Ravens' defense contains and pressures Chad Pennington, who can threaten them deep.

Flacco fights the Fish flack. The Ravens win an ugly one.

Ravens 19, Dolphins 13

Philadelphia Eagles -3 at Minnesota Vikings

The futile, choking efforts of Lovie Smith's Chicago Bears and Jon Grunden's Tampa Bay Buccaneers opened the door for Andy Reid's Eagles to take the playoff plunge.

And they kicked that door down smashing the overrated, gutless Dallas Cowboys and rolling into the playoffs.

The Vikings sneaked in behind the shaky Tarvaris Jackson, the worst QB on a playoff team, and the suddenly shaking hands of all star RB Adrian Peterson.

The Viking defense will hammer Eagle QB Donovan McNabb and expect him to turn the ball over a few times. But also expect the Viking QB Jackson to give up the game changing turnovers as Eagle defensive coordinator Jim Johnson will baffle the befuddled signal caller.

Eagles 20 Vikings 15

Taking all road favorite is perhaps a recipe for disaster. Next week the teams with the bye week are always a good bet to take out the traveling teams. This week we be road warriors.

Good luck in '009 and roll dem bones to feed that jones....