Mitch Picks the Motor City Bowl: Florida Atlantic vs. Central Michigan, 12/26/08

After seven bowl games, I stand at 5-2 against the spread, and I would take that winning percentage spread across all 34 bowl games.

As we decide what gifts we are keeping and what we're going to return and even thinking about hitting all of the sales on the 26th, there is football to be played in the Motor City.

Before I get into my write up I want to tell and thank all of the readers from my site, The College Football Place, who are reading my write up here how thankful I am for them and how much the emails and comments meant over the past few days.

For those who have no idea what I'm talking about my site was infiltrated by a hacker Christmas Eve. While there wasn't any user information or information of mine that's actually housed at the site, they deleted every file and article I ever wrote and all of the posts in the forum and even my site template was deleted.

As I wrote this article, my site hasn't been restored but it is in the process, I don't know exactly how long it will take. I am not going to let these low-lifes win and I think all of you out there who have a site or use a favorite site like this one know and share my feelings. While I know we don't always agree, I know some of you don't appreciate all of my comments or opinions, and my spelling is suspect at best (as you guys have no problem letting me know); I think we all can agree at the end of the day were all just college football fans, trying our best to keep it real.

Fortunately a few weeks ago I installed a special tracking software and I believe I have the IP of this "hacker" and have given it to the FBI, so I hope justice will be served. I am going to do everything in my power to ensure that it is. In addition, I am personally offering $1000 cash US to anyone who provides information or backup leading to an arrest and conviction of the perpetrator.

In any event, I'm not going to let a little thing like a deleted website get in the way of talking college football. I talked college football long before I had the site and will be talking about it probably until the day they put me in the ground. Let's talk Motor City Bowl.

Motor City Bowl    Ford Field   Detroit, MI

Florida Atlantic (6-6) Vs. Central Michigan (8-4)

December 26, 2008   7:30 EST  The Line: Central Michigan -7

Overview:

This one sets up to be a high scoring affair between two decent offenses and two even better QB's. The storyline we will probably hear most often in this one is going to be all about FAU's Rusty Smith and CMU's Dan LeFeFevour, but in reality it is a story of two teams whose defenses have been so porous at times that these QB's need to put up 500 yards and 50 points just to be competitive in games.

FAU started the season going 1-5 in their first six games and looked like anything but defending conference champs. How much of this came from over-scheduling and how much came because the team just wasn't ready is somewhat debatable but one of the losses in particular, a last second Hail Mary loss to Middle Tennessee State, was about as bad as it gets and may have been the wake up call the Owls needed.

On the other side, CMU managed to go 8-4 despite Lefoevur being injured and missing a few games. The Chippewas had a few chances to have another well above average season, but dropped a showdown type game against Ball State and then inexplicably lost to Eastern Michigan in a game where EMU QB Andy Schmitt threw the ball 80 times for over 500 yards. While Central Michigan has been a staple of postseason play, which CMU team shows up: The team that lost to EMU or the team that beat three bowl teams?

Some Stats:

Florida Atlantic:

Offensive Averages:

Points 25.2 (66th/4th)

Overall Yds 391.5 (42nd/4th)

Passing Yds 250.5 (28th/1st)

Rushing Yds 141.0 (67th/5th)

Defensive Averages:

Points 29.3 (85th/5th)

Overall Yds 402.2 (93rd/5th)

Passing Yds 218.7 (80th/6th)

Rushing Yds 183.5 (99th/5th)

* In parenthesis are National and Conference Rank, respectively

Central Michigan:

Offensive Averages:

Points 30.3 (34th/3rd)

Overall Yds 427.1 (23rd/2nd)

Passing Yds 292.8 (12th/2nd)

Rushing Yds 134.3 (75th/8th)

Defensive Averages:

Points 30.8 (91st/8th)

Overall Yds 424.3 (105th/13th)

Passing Yds 285.7 (119th/13th)

Rushing Yds 138.6 (52nd/1st)

* In parenthesis are National and Conference Rank, respectively

*from statsheet.com

There just simply isn't a lot happening on defense for either of these teams. For me, I find it more than a little surprising that CMU is significantly worse on defense as on the surface it's FAU who played the tougher schedule. CMU appears to be a lot better against the run, which could come into play since LeFevour can run. CMU's 119th ranking in passing yards allowed makes them the second worst team in D-1 this year.

The Trends:

ATS Trends

Florida Atlantic

Owls are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Owls are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Owls are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Owls are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a S.U. win. Owls are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Owls are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a ATS win.

Central Michigan

Chippewas are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Chippewas are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss. Chippewas are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a S.U. loss. Chippewas are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Chippewas are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite. Chippewas are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Chippewas are 30-12-3 ATS in their last 45 games overall. Chippewas are 23-10-3 ATS in their last 36 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

*from covers.com

The Pick:

While a lot of fans today and the people who make the rules appreciate games that are all about scoring and offense, most of you know me well enough at this point to know I prefer a defensive battle and don't trust teams that can't stop other teams. While I have little faith in either team, I think that CMU has a few things in their favor, which has me leaning their way.

Firstly, they are virtually playing at home. Secondly, the rest will have given them time to heal their nagging injuries. Lastly, this is their third consecutive time in the Motor City Bowl, so this is old hat for them.

MITCH'S PICK: CENTRAL MICHIGAN -7

Visit Mitch anytime at The College Football Place