WhatIfSports NFL Week 17 Predictions

By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com

Each Tuesday morning during the season, we will preview every NFL game of the upcoming week. All of our NFL content, including our most recent power rankings and weekly fantasy projections, is located here.

The inputs to the 10,001 simulations of each upcoming game are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position.

Playoff Odds

According to the simulations, these are the playoff odds for each team that is still alive:

AFC Playoff Odds

Tennessee, Pittsburgh, and Indianapolis: 100%
Baltimore: 91.6%
San Diego: 87.5%
New England: 48.4% (45.1% AFC East, 3.3% WC)
Miami: 40.3%
NYJ: 19.7% (14.7% AFC East, 5.0% WC)
Denver: 12.5%

NFC Playoff Odds

NYG, Arizona, Carolina (56.0% NFC South), and Atlanta (44.0% NFC South): 100%
Minnesota: 73.4%
Dallas: 48.6%
Tampa Bay: 34.8%
Chicago: 31.0% (26.6% NFC North, 4.4% Wild Card)
Philadelphia: 13.2%

 

Playoff Picture

Using the outcomes below, the NFL playoff matchups and seeding look like this:

AFC Wild Card Games

No. 6 Baltimore (11-5) @ No. 3 New England (11-5)
No. 5 Indianapolis (11-5) @ No. 4 San Diego (8-8)
No. 1 Tennessee (14-2) and No. 2 Pittsburgh (12-4) receive byes

Eliminated: New York Jets (10-6), Miami (10-6), Houston (8-8), Denver (8-8), Buffalo (7-9), Jacksonville (5-11), Oakland (4-12), Cleveland (4-12), Cincinnati (3-12-1) and Kansas City (3-13).

NFC Wild Card Games

No. 6 Tampa Bay (10-6) @ No. 3 Minnesota (9-7)
No. 5 Carolina (11-5) @ No. 4 Arizona (8-8)
No. 1 New York Giants (13-3) and No. 2 Atlanta (11-5) receive byes

Eliminated: Philadelphia (9-6-1), Washington (9-7), New Orleans (9-7), Dallas (9-7), Chicago (9-7), Green Bay (6-10), San Francisco (6-10), Seattle (5-11), St. Louis (2-14) and Detroit (0-16), which has a 73.7% chance of ending the season winless.

Week 17 Scores for Every NFL Game

Click on the Boxscores below to see detailed team and player stat projections for every game.

Matchup	Home Win%	Avg Score
Jacksonville @ Baltimore	88.9	9-25	Boxscore
Cleveland @ Pittsburgh	87.7	9-24	Boxscore
Denver @ San Diego	87.5	15-30	Boxscore
St. Louis @ Atlanta	82.5	17-31	Boxscore
Detroit @ Green Bay	73.7	21-32	Boxscore
Oakland @ Tampa Bay	67.7	17-24	Boxscore
Miami @ New York	59.7	19-23	Boxscore
Carolina @ New Orleans	53.3	25-29	Boxscore
Chicago @ Houston	53.2	18-20	Boxscore
Dallas @ Philadelphia	51.4	18-20	Boxscore
Kansas City @ Cincinnati	49.5	171-9	Boxscore
New York @ Minnesota	43.2	21-21	Boxscore
Tennessee @ Indianapolis	33.9	18-14	Boxscore
Seattle @ Arizona	29.5	24-19	Boxscore
Washington @ San Francisco	25.7	19-14	Boxscore
New England @ Buffalo	24.6	27-20	Boxscore

 

Paul Bessire is the Senior Quantitative Analyst and Content Manager for WhatIfSports.com and a member of the Pro Football Writers of America. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at [e-mail]. Thanks!