NFL Week 13 Predictions: Why Laying Huge Amount of Points on Patriots Pays off

No spread is high enough when handicapping Week 13’s New England Patriots vs. Indianapolis Colts game. That’s why laying 20.5 points on the home team is the smart move, regardless of the sky-high spread.

Usually this is the best game of the season, but without Peyton Manning this has turned into one of the biggest mismatches of 2011. With the bad blood between these two teams, I would expect the Pats to play hard for the entire 60 minutes, which certainly helps when you’re dealing with such a high spread.

The Colts have absolutely zero firepower on offense. ZERO. Joseph Addai is having another injury-plagued season, the receiving corps has been inconsistent at best and the QB situation has been nothing short of a nightmare. Kerry Collins was the quick fix that didn’t work out, Curtis Painter showed why he’s a career backup and now Dan Orlovsky is scheduled to start.

Orlovsky, famous for stepping in the back of the end zone for a safety and smiling, has eight career TDs and 11 turnovers and sports a career 72.1 QB rating.

The Colts defense has talent, but gave up on the season a long time ago. They see the writing on the wall and are already looking forward to erasing the memories of this lost season. The pass rush has completely fallen off the map because of it. Injuries have been devastating as well.

Not a whole lot to say about the Patriots. Tom Brady (3,627 yards, 28 TD) is currently on fire and his two tight ends are redefining the position. The only way to exploit their defense is through the air, which is certainly not in the Colts' arsenal.

Indy is not just losing games, they aren’t even covering. They are 0-7 ATS in their last seven, and are getting outscored by an average of 16 points.

It seems crazy to lay three touchdowns on a pro game, but this is the only situation in the NFL where it’s not. Take the Pats.

Key Trends:

Patriots are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Colts are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC.

Colts are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.

Prediction: Patriots 44 Colts 17