Chippewas-Owls: Central Michigan and Florida Atlantic Faceoff in Motor City Bowl

MOTOR CITY BOWL

Florida Atlantic Owls versus Central Michigan Chippewas

December 26, 2008

7:30 PM ET

Ford Field, Detroit, MI

Opening Spread: Central Michigan -5

How they got here…

Central Michigan finished in a tie for second in the MAC’s tough West Division, with a 6-2 conference record and 8-4 overall. Had a narrow 31-24 loss to Ball State been reversed, the Chippewas would have won their third straight division title.

Florida Atlantic finished a disappointing 4-3 in Sun Belt play after having won the conference a year ago. The Owls ended the year 6-6, securing bowl eligibility after a 57-50 overtime shootout with cross town rival FIU in their final game.

Statistically Speaking…

CMU quarterback Dan LeFevour is probably the best-known player in the game after having become the second player ever, after Vince Young, to pass for 3,000 yards and rush for 1,000 yards in a season in 2007.

Neither team has impressed on defense this year. FAU finished 93rd and 85th in the country in total and scoring defense, while CMU finished 104th and 91st in the same, respectively.

Thanks to the play of LeFevour and FAU quarterback Rusty Smith, who some have tabbed as a future NFL draft pick, this game has a chance to be a high-scoring affair like it was last season. A year ago, these same Chippewas narrowly lost to Purdue 51-48.

Using the same stat analysis I used on these hypothetical BCS title game scenarios, this game comes out as a very close one. It projects as a 34-31 CMU win, meaning these are two very evenly matched teams.

Why you should watch…

A lot of people around the web have dismissed this game, but there are some interesting subplots nonetheless.

You have new school versus old school, thanks to CMU’s spread option facing coaching legend Howard Schnellenberger. You think Howard is concerned? He famously called out Texas before the season began for not being a tough team.

He’s still got plenty of fight left in him, even if the ‘Horns beat his Owls 52-10.

You also have the two quarterbacks. LeFevour can make plays with his legs as well as his arms, which keeps his team in a lot of games. Smith as I said is touted to be a future NFL player, and the Chippewa defense made Curtis Painter look like a first round pick in last season’s Motor City Bowl.

Give this game at least a quarter or two. You may find it a nice break from keeping your family occupied and cleaning up the day-old wrapping paper your dog keeps tearing up.

Central Michigan wins if…

It can play some defense.

In CMU’s four losses, the Chippewas gave up an average of 43.75 points. In their seven wins over FBS competition, they gave up just 26 points a game. The offense will score some points for sure, but winning bowls via shootouts are a dicey proposition. If they can hold FAU under 30 points, they probably will win.

Florida Atlantic wins if…

The offense can get going.

In their six losses, FAU scored no more than 17 points and was held to 10 or fewer points three times. The Chippewa defense has been known to be accommodating from time to time, and so the Owls must capitalize. A big game from Smith could win the game and give the program some momentum going into his senior season in 2009.

B/R Expert Picks…

Trey Bradley: Central Michigan

Michael Cline: Central Michigan

GeorgiaDawg: Central Michigan

Justin Goar: Central Michigan

Lisa Horne: Central Michigan

Miami Mitch: Central Michigan

Brian Scott: Central Michigan

David Wunderlich: Central Michigan