Mitch Picks the Poinsettia Bowl: Boise State vs. TCU 12/23/08

After the first weekend of Bowl games, I stand at 4-1 against the spread, I'll take it.

I thought that I had a good chance at starting a perfect 5-0, but as I had reinforced to me, the more I hear the name of a team and the word "lock" in the same sentence, the more uneasy I get about my pick and the more I should either completely go the other way or just hedge out of the game. Those who read my comments in the hours leading up to the game in the forum know that I was doing some serious back peddling on my Troy pick, something I hadn't done all season.

While I can't say that the public is wrong all of the time or even most of the time especially when just picking an outright winner, it seems the public is far less adept at picking winners against the spread.  I know Las Vegas wasn't built by hordes of fans cashing tickets on stone cold locks and "easy" covers by favorites.

At least Jordan had it right as he got back to his winning ways we are accustomed to. Like I say all the time, I don't read his picks on a game until after I have done my write ups so I have no idea how many games we'll be on the same page on and how many we'll be on opposite sides; if the season was any indication, we'll see plenty of both.

Well Jordan has made his pick in this one so it's time for me to make mine.

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl Qualcomm Stadium San Diego, CA

Boise State (12-0) Vs. TCU (10-2)

Tuesday 12/23/08   8 EST   Line: TCU-3

Overview:

Two teams that have proved to be main event worthy take center stage in a game which is not just the only game on for the night, but it's also has the two highest ranked teams of any of the bowl games thus far and has the two highest ranked teams of any game outside of the BCS Bowls. Does it live up to it's lofty expectations.

Everyone knows I love defense and two of my highest rated confidence picks (which I was 6-0 on for the year) involved TCU with them covering easily each time; unfortunately, the Horned Frogs aren't playing Wyoming or SMU this week. I really admire the TCU defense and the job they did, they were nothing short of outstanding and when they were thrust into the spotlight in their showdown against BYU, they showed up in a big way.

What TCU failed to do was show up in a big way against Oklahoma where they lost 35-7 in a game that was never close and then losing in a must win game against Utah where their kicker who was as close to a sure thing all season missed chip shot after chip shot in Utes comeback win.

While we heard much of the well deserved and certainly earned accolades of the TCU defense, most college football fans and casual followers would never guess that Boise State comes into this game with the No. 3 scoring defense in the country. As we'll cover in the stats section, Boise's offense is outstanding, it's primarily their defense who is responsible for their perfect record so far this season.

Boise comes into this game with a purpose. Boise was snubbed by the BCS after a perfect season and after pulling off one of the most memorable Bowl game wins of all time just two years ago against Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. While this is an attractive matchup between two top tier teams, this isn't considered a top tier bowl game and doesn't have near the top tier payouts of the BCS Bowls.

See Mitch's College Football Bowl pick against the spread