NFL Picks Week 12: Jay Cutler-Less Chicago Bears Will Eke Out Win at Oakland

The Bears are hot and have won five games in a row, but the injury to quarterback Jay Cutler was a big blow to this team.  

This team is 7-3 and currently has a hold on the final wild-card spot for the playoffs with only six games remaining. The Atlanta Falcons and New York Giants are only a game back, and looking to pounce on the Cutler-less Bears. 

This week, the Bears will start backup quarterback Caleb Hanie against the Oakland Raiders for the first time since last year's playoff game against the Packers. 

This game will be a great meter to see if the Bears have what it takes to make the playoffs. Here is how the Bears can win without Jay Cutler.

Devin Hester and the Special Teams Play

When Devin Hester scores, the Bears are unstoppable and always win. Hester’s ability to gain yards on punt and kickoff returns gives the Bears great field position on almost every possession.  

The Bears must give Hester enough space and force the Raiders to kick the ball to him if they want a chance to win this game. He is the best game-changer in the NFL and can win games single-handedly. He must get loose and run wild.  

The Raiders also have speedsters receiving returns in Jacoby Ford, Taiwan Jones and every other sub 4.3 guys on their rosters who the Bears need to contain. They must not give Carson Palmer any type of positive field position as he is continuing to get better as each week progresses. 

Getting Pressure on Carson Palmer

Raiders quarterback Carson Palmer has been picking up steam as of late, and seems to be getting his legs under him. His previous two quarterback ratings were over 100, and he has cut his turnovers down, which resulted in wins.  

Palmer has one of the best offensive lines in the league, and a great running game that compliments the deep ball. 

The Bears defense has been improving each week and is currently 30th in the league in opponent passing yards, but they are 10th in rushing yards allowed. 

The Bears' defensive line continues to get pressure on quarterbacks without any help from blitz packages. Peppers, Adonije and the rest of the line must put pressure on Palmer so the Bears can keep the other players back in coverage.  

If Palmer has time to throw the ball, and the Chicago's secondary is left on an island then the Bears will have a tough time winning. 

Matt Forte Needs To Run Wild

Matt Forte has been struggling in the previous two games in gaining yards on the ground accumulating only 64 and 57 yards. He only averaged 3.2 yards per carry in the two games, which is a big difference from the 5.2 yards he averaged in the previous games.  

The Bears really need Forte to have a big game against the Raiders because Cutler is out. If Forte can continue to gain big chunks of yards per carry, then backup quarterback Hanie will be able to get a few throws off the play-action. 

Forte will likely carry the ball over 25 times in this game to keep the Raiders tenacious defensive line off of Hanie.

Contain the Raiders' Running Game

Running back Darren McFadden still might be out for another game, but his replacement Michael Bush has been dominate since taking over. Bush has racked up a 100 or more yards in the previous four games, and will look to do the same against the Bears. 

The Bears have a tough time in stopping the rush. The Cover 2 scheme makes it difficult for the Bears to fill in certain gaps when teams hand off to the tailback.

Julius Peppers has a problem being too aggressive and not playing the run. He continues to overplay instead of containing and it will be vital for him to watch Bush and slow him down. 

Look for Urlacher and Briggs to keep a close eye on Bush on Sunday as they look to stuff the running game. 

Martz Must Keep the Play Calling as Simple as Possible

Offensive coordinator Mike Martz needs to keep the play-calling simple for quarterback Caleb Hanie. Martz has a problem of thinking too much out of the box, and doing too much when he feels pressure.

Hanie is not a starting caliber quarterback, and needs to be regulated as a game manager. His arm is average at best, and is not capable of throwing the deep ball to his speedy receivers. So short dump-off passes will be key for Hanie to succeed. 

The Bears must rely on the running game, the defense and special teams. Martz must only allow Hanie to throw when needed, just as the Bears had done during their Super Bowl year when they had Grossman and Orton as game managers.