NFL Picks Week 12: Big Home Favorites Worth Taking the Sky-High Spread

Taking giant spreads is never an easy thing to do in the NFL—too many factors that could go wrong, too much talent in the league and too big of a chance for a major injury.

That logic is good in theory…until you realize some teams are just flat-out that much better, regardless of the situation. This is a week that features two of them.

(Spreads courtesy of Covers.com.)

Minnesota Vikings @ Atlanta Falcons -9.5

It’s simple: The Vikings are going to be without do-everything back Adrian Peterson (their only consistent source of offense) and the Falcons have the No. 2-ranked run defense.

The game is going to be placed in the hands of rookie QB Christian Ponder, on the road, against a Falcons team that smells blood now that the Bears have lost Jay Cutler.

Unless QB Matt Ryan finds a way to stink against the Vikings 28th-ranked pass defense, which happens to be dealing with all kinds of injuries, this is going to get ugly.

Even Jared Allen can’t save this one from being a complete blowout.

Key Trends:

Falcons are 8-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

Vikings are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings.

Prediction: Falcons 34, Vikings 12

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets -9

The Bills are toast.

Their bend-but-don’t-break style of defense has been completely destroyed by a lack of turnovers. Teams have learned how to take care of the ball against the Bills. Buffalo has only created two TO’s on its three-game losing streak, while coughing it up nine times on offense.

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick’s noodle arm is being exposed, especially with the health issues of the talented wideout Steve Johnson hampering his No. 1 option. 

With a banged-up Fred Jackson (who may not play) going up against a Jets team coming off 11 days of rest, this one is a no-brainer.

Key Trends:

Bills are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four road games.

Bills are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings.

Prediction: Jets 23, Bills 10