NFL Picks Week 12: Chicago Bears and Other Teams Who Will Surprise

Without Jay Cutler it seems the doom-and-gloom projections for the Chicago Bears grow exponentially by the hour.

Don't rush to send them home after 16 games just yet though; they still have a lot of other players that can play. That'll be enough to make them the first of three teams who will shock their opponents to pull off the upset this weekend.

Bears at Raiders

Supposing you believe I'm off my rocker on this one, think about this game for a moment. The Raiders played a team with a mobile quarterback who creates plays even though he's not an especially proficient passer along with a solid running back not too long ago. They gave up 38 points to the Denver Broncos. 

The Bears won't need to put together long scoring drives. The Raiders are prone to giving up the big play and the Bears have a running back who can break big runs. In fact, the Raiders have given up the most runs of over 20 yards of any team in the NFL—15. The Bears have the fourth-most rushing plays over 20 yards. 

It doesn't take Nostradamus here to figure out that there's a good chance the Bears are going to break a couple of big running plays. Matt Forte is a big-play back and that's enough to win. 

Culter's loss won't be affecting the Bears on defense which, since they've gone more to Cover 1 than Cover 2, has really played well. Since changing their defensive schemes they've given up just 324 yards a game on defense, and more importantly, just 15 points. 

The Bears will win this game because their defense is playing well enough to win it and they match up well with Forte going against a soft run defense. They don't need a Cutlerian performance from backup Caleb Hanie. They just need him to make a few plays, and hand the ball off to Forte and Barber.

Bears 17, Raiders 13

Broncos at Chargers

This is a game between two teams headed in opposite directions. I'm actually surprised to see the Chargers as such heavy favorites here. Currently the Broncos are listed as 7.5-point dogs. This game is going to be all about turnovers. 

In their five-game losing streak the Chargers have turned it over 14 times. The Broncos defense has been steadily improving and one guy who isn't getting enough talk is Von Miller, who has 9.5 sacks on the season. In his last two games, he has 13 tackles and three sacks. Miller also leads the team in forced fumbles with three.

So here you have this perfect storm of events settling on San Diego and Philip Rivers. He's been making bad choices under pressure and turning it over. Now this red-hot linebacker is coming in who has a propensity for getting pressure on the QB and forcing turnovers.

Look for Miller to force Rivers into some mistakes early. That's going to bring out the boo-birds and the Broncos will be closing this thing out earlier than you expect.

Broncos 24, Chargers 10

Browns at Bengals 

Here's the rub—it's a shocking truth but well-kept secret—the best team doesn't always win. The Browns are feeling pretty doggone good about themselves right now; the Bengals aren't. It's really as simple as that. 

There's not statistical justification for this upset pick; it's a hunch based on momentum. 

Cincinnati played exceptionally well, better than anyone expected, against both the Steelers and Ravens, but then suffered back-to-back heartbreaking losses. Cleveland put Mo-Jo and his LBJ impersonation to rest. 

Sometimes it's just about timing and feeling good. Cleveland will win a defensive struggle. 

Cleveland 17, Cincinnati 13