2011 College Football Week 13 Picks and Predictions: LSU over Arkansas

Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.

Check out our 2011 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Upsets of the Week available on Wednesdays.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.

The BCS standings mimicked the weather in Ohio this past weekend. If you wanted it to change, just wait five minutes. Playing with heavy hearts, Oklahoma State got caught up in Iowa State's upset cyclone, the USC Trojans beat Oregon on the Ducks' home field and RGIII led the Baylor Bears to a shootout win over fifth-ranked Oklahoma.

When the chips fell, the SEC West held the BCS trump card. LSU remained first in the standings, Alabama slid up to two with Arkansas third. With the SEC Championship on the horizon, all three teams prepare for heavyweight bouts in Week 13 with the winner to play Georgia in Atlanta.

Game of the Week: No. 3 Arkansas at No. 1 LSU

Following their 9-6 overtime win in Tuscaloosa, Les Miles and the Tigers have played a pair of tin cans the last two weeks. LSU outscored Western Kentucky and Ole Miss by a combined score of 94-12. The Bayou Bengals' defense in second in scoring (10.0 points allowed per game), fourth against the rush (89.6 yards allowed per game), fifth against the pass (158.3 yards allowed per game) and second in total defense (247.9 yards allowed per game).

Following their Week 4 loss at Alabama, Arkansas has won seven straight. This streak includes victories over Texas A&M, Auburn and South Carolina. The Hogs' average margin of victory during this stretch is 17.3 points.

He probably won't catch Ryan Mallett's stats from a season ago, but junior quarterback Tyler Wilson has posted solid numbers through the first 11 games. He's completed 63.1 percent of his passes for over 3,200 yards with 21 touchdowns and only five interceptions. The team is 10th in the country in passing at 316.9 yards per game.

Using our college football simulation engine we "played" LSU and Arkansas 101 times and it's the Tigers winning 65.3 percent of the time by an average score of 31-25.

No. 2 Alabama at No. 24 Auburn

Alabama and Auburn scheduled two FCS foes from the Southern Conference in Week 12. Turned out Georgia Southern and Samford were interested in more than collecting a paycheck for their universities. The Eagles only trailed by 10 at the half, while the Bulldogs pulled within one of Auburn in the third quarter before the two FBS schools pulled away.

The Tide and Tigers probably exerted more energy than expected heading into this week's Iron Bowl.

Since October 1, Auburn has gone W-L-W-L-W-L-W over their last seven games. If the pattern continues, the defending BCS champs will finish the regular season 7-5.

Michael Dyer is the team's catalyst on offense and has rushed for nearly 1,200 yards (5.2 yards per carry) with 10 touchdowns on the season. However, the Tigers rank 106th in passing offense at 161.7 passing yards per game.

Trent Richardson remains the bulldozer for the Tide on offense with 1,380 yards on the ground and 20 touchdowns. The team is 16th in the country in rushing at 220.5 yards per game.

Alabama's scoring defense is still tops in the country at 8.4 points allowed per game.

We simulated the Tide and Tigers 101 times and it's Alabama winning 76.2 percent of the time by an average score of 31-18.

Note: If Arkansas wins on Friday and Alabama wins on Saturday, that would create a three-way tie that would be settled by the BCS standings.

College Football Week 13
Matchup	Win%	Avg Score
Boston College Eagles	37.6	21	Boxscore
@ Miami (FL) Hurricanes	62.4	26
Maryland Terrapins	45.5	23	Boxscore
@ North Carolina State Wolfpack	54.5	24
Duke Blue Devils	47.5	26	Boxscore
@ North Carolina Tar Heels	52.5	29
Vanderbilt Commodores	54.5	27	Boxscore
@ Wake Forest Demon Deacons	45.5	24
Virginia Tech Hokies	69.3	29	Boxscore
@ Virginia Cavaliers	30.7	23
Georgia Bulldogs	80.7	29	Boxscore
@ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	19.3	20
Cincinnati Bearcats	37.6	23	Boxscore
@ Syracuse Orange	62.4	26
Pittsburgh Panthers	39.6	24	Boxscore
@ West Virginia Mountaineers	60.4	28
Louisville Cardinals	48.5	24	Boxscore
@ South Florida Bulls	51.5	25
Rutgers Scarlet Knights	56.4	21	Boxscore
@ Connecticut Huskies	43.6	20
Penn State Nittany Lions	19.3	19	Boxscore
@ Wisconsin Badgers	80.7	32
Ohio State Buckeyes	32.2	19	Boxscore
@ Michigan Wolverines	67.8	26
Iowa Hawkeyes	43.6	23	Boxscore
@ Nebraska Cornhuskers	56.4	24
Michigan State Spartans	74.3	32	Boxscore
@ Northwestern Wildcats	25.7	23
Illinois Fighting Illini	84.7	29	Boxscore
@ Minnesota Golden Gophers	15.3	16
Purdue Boilermakers	93.1	36	Boxscore
@ Indiana Hoosiers	6.9	19
Eastern Michigan Eagles	7.9	17	Boxscore
@ Northern Illinois Huskies	92.1	35
Akron Zips	14.9	17	Boxscore
@ Western Michigan Broncos	85.1	31
Miami (OH) RedHawks	35.6	22	Boxscore
@ Ohio Bobcats	64.4	27
Kent State Golden Flashes	48.5	20	Boxscore
@ Temple Owls	51.5	22
Bowling Green Falcons	64.4	25	Boxscore
@ Buffalo Bulls	35.6	21
Toledo Rockets	79.2	33	Boxscore
@ Ball State Cardinals	20.8	23
Oregon State Beavers	19.8	21	Boxscore
@ Oregon Ducks	80.2	34
UCLA Bruins	22.8	27	Boxscore
@ USC Trojans	77.2	35
Notre Dame Fighting Irish	26.7	25	Boxscore
@ Stanford Cardinal	73.3	34
Colorado Buffaloes	28.7	20	Boxscore
@ Utah Utes	71.3	28
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns	30.7	22	Boxscore
@ Arizona Wildcats	69.3	31
Washington State Cougars	41.6	25	Boxscore
@ Washington Huskies	58.4	27
California Golden Bears	49.5	23	Boxscore
@ Arizona State Sun Devils	50.5	24
Mississippi Rebels	20.8	18	Boxscore
@ Mississippi State Bulldogs	79.2	27
Arkansas Razorbacks	34.7	25	Boxscore
@ LSU Tigers	65.3	31
Clemson Tigers	54.5	25	Boxscore
@ South Carolina Gamecocks	45.5	24
Florida State Seminoles	63.4	24	Boxscore
@ Florida Gators	36.6	21
Tennessee Volunteers	66.3	23	Boxscore
@ Kentucky Wildcats	33.7	19
Alabama Crimson Tide	76.2	31	Boxscore
@ Auburn Tigers	23.8	18
New Mexico State Aggies	21.8	21	Boxscore
@ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs	78.2	35
San Jose State Spartans	33.7	24	Boxscore
@ Fresno State Bulldogs	66.3	29
Tulane Green Wave	43.6	24	Boxscore
@ Hawaii Warriors	56.4	25
Nevada Wolf Pack	69.3	31	Boxscore
@ Utah State Aggies	30.7	25
Iowa State Cyclones	16.8	22	Boxscore
@ Oklahoma Sooners	83.2	35
Texas Tech Red Raiders	35.6	30	Boxscore
@ Baylor Bears	64.4	36
Texas Longhorns	41.6	24	Boxscore
@ Texas A&M Aggies	58.4	28
Missouri Tigers	93.1	35	Boxscore
@ Kansas Jayhawks	6.9	18
Memphis Tigers	7.9	18	Boxscore
@ Southern Miss Golden Eagles	92.1	38
UTEP Miners	32.7	22	Boxscore
@ UCF Knights	67.3	28
Rice Owls	41.1	27	Boxscore
@ Southern Methodist Mustangs	58.9	30
Houston Cougars	55.4	42	Boxscore
@ Tulsa Golden Hurricane	44.6	40
East Carolina Pirates	60.4	26	Boxscore
@ Marshall Thundering Herd	39.6	23
Wyoming Cowboys	5.9	18	Boxscore
@ Boise State Broncos	94.1	44
Air Force Falcons	73.8	28	Boxscore
@ Colorado State Rams	26.2	18
San Diego State Aztecs	89.1	32	Boxscore
@ UNLV Rebels	10.9	15
Troy Trojans	41.1	25	Boxscore
@ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers	58.9	27
FIU Golden Panthers	53.0	23	Boxscore
@ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders	47.0	22
UAB Blazers	84.2	32	Boxscore
@ Florida Atlantic Owls	15.8	19