Week 11 NFL Picks: Easiest Locks Against the Spread

That's right, folks—it's time for my Stone Cold Lead Pipe Locks!

Wait, what's that? That title is already taken?  Oh well, we don't need no stinking titles for this—we just need some guaranteed picks against the spread.

And luckily for you, you've come to the right place to get just that. For uniformity's sake, we'll use the spread from BetOnline.com.

Now let's make money.

SEATTLE (+3) at St. Louis

This is by far the riskiest play on here, so much so that I originally planned on taking St. Louis here, who have played well the past three weeks (31-21 win over the Saints, a tough 19-13 overtime loss to the Cardinals and Patrick Peterson, a 13-12 win over the Browns.)

But while I don't think the Seahawks are a good team—they lost to the Browns 6-3, after all—they have played an absolutely brutal schedule. They've played seven playoff contenders—49ers, Steelers, Falcons, Giants, Bengals, Cowboys and Ravens—and managed to beat two of them (Giants and Ravens).

Listen, even if they lose this one 6-3, you're still a winner. It's not the safest pick on this slideshow, but it's not as scary a pick as it looks.

ARIZONA (+9.5) at San Francisco

Arizona has been playing good football since their week six bye. They are 2-2 in that time—winning two in a row—and were a late Ravens' comeback away from winning that game as well.

And the 49ers don't exactly blow people out—five of their eight wins have been by eight points or less.

Arizona is familiar enough with the Niners to play them tough. They won't upset San Francisco, but they will cover.

OAKLAND (-1) at Minnesota

Am I missing something here? Are the 5-4 Raiders—who have beaten the Bills, Texans, and Chargers—only laying a point against the 2-7 Vikings?

I get that the Vikings sixth-ranked rush defense will challenge the Raiders and their 3rd-ranked rush offense, but if you believe the Raiders are a team that has the potential to compete for the NFC West this year, you have to pick them over the Vikings.

Go with Oakland and rest easy.

BUFFALO (+1) at Miami

Vegas is smart. They know your bet will be influenced by the fact that the Dolphins have won two straight and the Bills have lost three of four. They know you probably saw the Cowboys smoke them last week, 44-7.

They know you sort of want to bet on Miami in this game. But are you really going to lay a point with the Dolphins?

Nope. This is what you should be thinking: Buffalo has a better football team than Miami does. In a game that is essentially a pick-em, trust that Buffalo's talent will win out.

Even if Vegas thinks otherwise.

CINCINNATI (+7) at Baltimore

This line is looking very favorable if in fact Ray Lewis doesn't play on Sunday. The loss of Lewis is mitigated slightly by the fact that Cincinnati might be without stud rookie receiver A.J. Green.

I believe this will a low-scoring, defensive struggle that probably comes down to a field goal. Baltimore needs a win badly after losing to Seattle last week, and the Bengals proved that they can compete with the big boys, even if they did lose to the Steelers 24-17 last week.

Take the points with Cincy and settle in for some defense.

TAMPA BAY (+14) at Green Bay

Tampa Bay is sitting at 4-5 and a loss would virtually ensure they will miss the playoffs this year. They will be motivated. And six of Green Bay's nine wins have been by 14 points or less.

Yes, the Packers will win. But smart money is on them winning by two touchdowns or less this week.

Philadelphia Eagles at NEW YORK GIANTS (-4.5)

Here are Philadelphia's options at quarterback this week: Vince Young and Mike Kafka.

Oh, and the Giants lead the NFL with 30 sacks this season. Plus, the Giants are +6 in turnovers and the Eagles are -7.

And Jeremy Maclin might miss the game for the Eagles.

Listen, I'm an Eagles fan who would never bet against my team, and I'm telling you to go with the Giants. If I didn't have a rooting interest, I would lay the points with the Giants on this game. It's the smart bet.