NFL Picks Week 11: Home Teams You Would Be Insane To Pick Against

Being at home in the NFL is one of the greatest advantages a team can have. They get a whole week to sleep in their beds. They do not have to travel far for their game. And, they get to have their fans carry them to a victory. 

That is why teams like the Green Bay Packers will have an easy time in covering the point spread. 

In their game this week, they not only are at home, but they play a struggling Tampa Bay Buccaneers team. The point spread has the Packers favored by 14. However, do not be scared off, as this Packers offense will destroy this awful Buccaneers defense. 

So far through 10 games this year Green Bay leads the NFL in scoring with an astonishing 35 points per game. When Green Bay is at home, they have outscored their opponents 160-67. That’s an amazing +93 point differential. 

Coming into this game, Tampa Bay ranks 28th and 29th in defending the pass and rush while giving up 20 or more points in their last four games. The Bucs are also coming off a three-game losing streak where they've scored no more than 18 points. 

Factor all of that in and Green Bay’s starters are sitting out in the fourth quarter in this blowout. 

Green Bay is just one sure-fire wager to make this week. Another team you have to bet on is San Francisco. 

The 49ers are on an amazing tear through their 2011 schedule. Not only are they on a seven-game winning streak, but they have done it by ranking No. 1 in defending the run. 

With their rock solid defense, they have also quietly put together a Top 10 offense, ranking seventh in the league with 25 points per game. 

This week they will put a stop to any momentum that this Arizona team has coming off an upset win over the Philadelphia Eagles. Arizona ranks in the bottom half of the NFL in points per game at No. 22 while ranking 24th and 21st in defending the pass and the run. 

With the emergence of backup running back Kendall Hunter, the 49ers will use their running attack to dominate this game. Both Hunter and Frank Gore will have close to 100 yards each, with three touchdowns combined in this game. 

Before we go, I have to give you one more home team that you have to pick this week. 

This last home team is the Detroit Lions. The Lions will correct all of their mistakes over the last two weeks against the Carolina Panthers. Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford will get back on track as one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Stafford will throw for over 300 yards with three touchdowns, exposing the weak Panthers secondary.

The Panthers' pass defense comes into the game ranked 14th in the NFL. However, when they play a good quarterback like the Falcons' Matt Ryan, the Packers' Aaron Rodgers or the Saints' Drew Brees, they are carved up like a Thanksgiving turkey. 

In those three games the Panthers have been gutted for 829 yards and five touchdowns. 

This week, you can expect a huge game not only from Stafford, but also his favorite receiver, Calvin Johnson. 

There you have it. Three teams that you have to put a wager on this week. If you do not, you run the risk of missing out on making yourself a lot better off. 

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