NFL Week 11 Picks: Green Bay Packers and Other Huge Home Favorites to Avoid

There are some sky-high spreads in Week 11 that are over-valuing teams currently riding high.

It’s an underdog kind of world this week for these three games:

(Spreads courtesy of Covers.com.)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +14 @ Green Bay Packers

The Pack are coming off a Monday night win over a divisional opponent where little effort was required while the Bucs are in danger of a lost season with another loss.

This is an all-hands-on-deck sort of game for the Bucs, and you can expect their strongest performance of the season.

DT Albert Haynesworth made an impact instantly in his first game, less than a week after signing with the team. Expect him to help shut down the Packers running game, while the pass rush keeps QB Aaron Rodgers off-balance to a degree (all you can hope for these days).

QB Josh Freeman takes advantage of the 31st-ranked Packers defense and the Bucs almost win outright.

Key Trends:

Buccaneers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog.

Buccaneers are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings.

Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit loss at home.

Prediction: Packers 31, Bucs 24

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins +9

This is one of the great rivalries in sports and you can truly throw the record books out the window when these two play.

It’s very difficult to take QB John Beck in any scenario, but I think the ‘Skins defense steps up and forces QB Tony Romo into one of his patented meltdown games.

With the Cowboys getting full of themselves after two impressive wins, they take a step-back against an old rival. Remember: Cowboys won by a mere two points AT HOME back in Week 3.

Key Trends:

Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games versus a team with a losing home record.

Cowboys are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games as a road favorite.

Underdog is 22-6 ATS in their last 28 meetings.

Cowboys are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

Prediction: Redskins 20, Cowboys 17

Arizona Cardinals +9.5 @ San Francisco 49ers

The Cardinals are somehow riding a two-game winning streak behind the mighty John Skelton.

While he certainly is nothing special, you can’t ignore his poise under pressure in the fourth quarter on the road against the “dream team” Eagles.

The MVP of the 49ers offense is Frank Gore and he is currently questionable for this NFC West matchup. That will force QB Alex Smith to make more plays than normal. Never a bad thing for the opponent.

The Cards' young defense is showing signs of improvement and is starting to create more turnovers as well.

With Skelton’s ability to get WR Larry Fitzgerald the ball in space, this game stays within double-digits.

Key Trends:

Underdog is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

Road team is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings.

Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a ATS win.

Prediction: 49ers 21, Cardinals 14